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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR POSTS MINOR GAINS, POUND BOOSTED BY RETAIL SALES NUMBERS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Final version of the Eurozone CPI matched analysts’ expectations yesterday so the release didn’t have a substantial impact and the pair showed choppy movement throughout the day, with a bearish bias.

Technical Outlook

The last few candles show very long wicks, especially in their upper part, which is a sign that bullish pressure is not yet high enough to resume the upwards movement. Today we may see a move lower, into the support at 1.1735 but overall the pair remains in a short term uptrend and the Relative Strength Index has cleared its overbought condition so after the retracement finds support, we will probably see a move up.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 8:30 am GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress. The impact of the event cannot be anticipated but caution is always advised when heads of central banks speak publicly.

On the US Dollar side we have the Building Permits, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show a reading of 1.25 Million. The indicator shows the annualized number of construction permits and acts as a gauge of activity in the construction sector; numbers above expectations usually strengthen the greenback but the impact is medium.


GBP/USD

The British Retail Sales came out above expectations yesterday and this was the main reason for the climb seen early in the session. However, the pair remained in a range overall.

Technical Outlook

Price is currently testing 1.3175 from above and if this level will turn into support, rejecting the pair higher, then we will most likely see an encounter with the resistance at 1.3225. A break of that level would show that the pair is ready to exit the range that confined it during the last period, and head into 1.3280. As long as price is trading above the 50 EMA our bias is slightly bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by economic data today, so the main focus will be the technical side and the U.S. release mentioned earlier.

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FOREX NEWS: EURO IN THE SPOTLIGHT: ECB PRESIDENT DRAGHI TESTIFIES TWICE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday’s price action was characterized by a sharp climb that nearly touched 1.1825 resistance but soon after, the pair slowed down and consolidated below 1.1800. The U.S. construction data was better than anticipated but the impact was limited.

Technical Outlook

The pair has now printed a lower high and failed to break the resistance at 1.1825, which shows that upwards momentum is fading. This means that we will possibly see an encounter with Friday’s low at 1.1756 but overall today we expect the pair to remain between 1.1825 and 1.1756 support unless Draghi’s testimony offers surprises.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s only notable event is the double testimony of ECB President Mario Draghi, before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. The topic is economy and monetary policy, so volatility is likely to increase during his speech, which is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT.

Two hours later, at 4:00 pm GMT, the ECB President will testify again before the same Committee, but this time the topic will be the European Systemic Risk Board. Caution is advised during both speeches.


GBP/USD

The pair accelerated to the upside early during Friday’s session, only to drop abruptly soon after without apparent reason other than fresh sell orders.

Technical Outlook

Price is advancing higher but the pair is prone to sharp moves to either side. As long as 1.3175 support remains intact, the upside movement is likely to continue but overall we expect choppy price action. The levels to watch are Friday’s top at 1.3260 and the support mentioned earlier, together with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic releases for today, so the technical side will take center stage.

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FOREX NEWS: POUND IN THE LIMELIGHT AS BOE GOVERNOR CARNEY TESTIFIES ON INFLATION AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

EUR/USD

Forex News: Price dropped very early during yesterday’s trading session but support pushed it higher and all losses were nullified. The Euro was initially unfazed by Draghi’s testimony, who mentioned that economic expansion is solid but was less hawkish about inflation.

Technical Outlook

After dropping into the confluence zone created by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the horizontal support at 1.1735, the pair bounced strongly to the upside, moving above the session’s opening price. However, the last candles are showing bearish pressure and price dropped once again, so it’s unclear what the next move will be. For the short term we expect to see another encounter with the confluence zone mentioned earlier and the way price behaves there will offer more clues about future direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro will have a light economic day, without any major data coming out and on the US Dollar side the only notable event is the release of the Existing Home Sales numbers, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. The indicator shows the annualized number of houses sold during the previous month, excluding new buildings. The expected number is 5.42 Million and higher values show a healthy economy, so the Dollar is positively affected.


GBP/USD

The Pound showed bullish momentum since early in yesterday’s trading session and this allowed the pair to climb for a perfect touch of 1.3280 resistance.

Technical Outlook

Current momentum favours the bulls but as long as 1.3280 resistance remains intact, the probability of a drop is high. The first lower barrier and form of support is represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, followed by 1.3175. To the upside, a break of 1.3280 would open the door for the key level at 1.3320.

Fundamental Outlook

The Inflation Report Hearings take place today at 10:00 am GMT and during these meetings, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify on inflation and economic outlook before the Parliament's Treasury Committee. Depending on Carney’s attitude and answers, the Pound is likely to show increased volatility, so caution is advised.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STRUGGLES, LOOKS FOR A VOLATILITY BOOST FROM FOMC MEETING MINUTES

EUR/USD

Forex News: Political turmoil in Germany, combined with modest US Dollar strength took the pair below support yesterday. However, price remained in a tight range for almost the entire session.

Technical Outlook

The pair’s gains seen Monday were totally erased and now the bears are trying to push price below the confluence zone created by 1.1735 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If they succeed, the first target will become the support at 1.1700, followed by the zone around 1.1670; the oscillators are showing bearish momentum, favouring a move into the next support but a lot will depend on the US data released today.

Fundamental Outlook

The first U.S. data release will be the Durable Goods Orders, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The indicator shows changes in the total value of orders for goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years and is expected to post a reading of 0.4% (previous 2.0%). Higher than anticipated numbers show increased economic activity and usually strengthen the US Dollar.

Later in the day, at 7:00 pm GMT the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest rate meeting. The document contains insights into the reasons that determined the latest rate decision but can also contain hints about future rate hikes and other monetary policy matters. If this is the case, the US Dollar will probably have a strong reaction, thus caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The pair retreated yesterday without threatening 1.3280 resistance but found support around 1.3225 zone and bounced higher. Both currencies in the pair lack a clear direction, so we can expect to see more choppiness.

Technical Outlook

The pair is capped by the resistance at 1.3280 and the support at 1.3225, so until we see a clear breakout, we can expect reversals within the range. A break of support will take price into the 50 period EMA, while a break of resistance will open the door for a move into the key level at 1.3320. Both the US Dollar and the Pound will be affected today by important events, so there’s an increased chance of a breakout.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT, HM Treasury will release the Autumn Forecast Statement, which contains an economic outlook and offers information about the government’s budget for the upcoming year. The Statement is released once per year and can have a significant impact on the Pound.

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FOREX NEWS: LONG-TERM RESISTANCE THREATENED. US DOLLAR STRUGGLES TO RECOVER WEEKLY LOSSES


EUR/USD

The European Manufacturing and Services surveys released yesterday showed optimism among purchasing managers and this contributed to the pair’s climb into the key resistance at 1.1860, generating another bullish session.



Technical Outlook

The bulls are now facing an important resistance zone represented by 1.1860 and 1.1875. Also, the pair has travelled a long distance to the upside without a proper retracement and the Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought territory. These reasons make us anticipate a drop that will possibly find support at 1.1825. If the pair moves above 1.1875 without retracing first, expect the upside to be limited and a pullback to follow.

Fundamental Outlook

The German IFO Business Climate will be the day’s only notable release, scheduled at 9:00 am GMT. This is a survey with a very large sample size of about 7,000 businesses that asks respondents to give their 6-month outlook for the economy and to rate current business conditions. The expected reading is 116.6, almost unchanged from the previous 116.7 and usually a higher number strengthens the Euro but to a limited extent.

GBP/USD

The pair dropped close to 1.3280 support yesterday after the British GDP failed to surpass expectations. However the losses were quickly erased, mostly due to US Dollar weakness across the board.




Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.3320 represents the top of the long term range and is a key level for long term movement, a fact which makes us believe that price will struggle to break it and that we will see a retracement lower from here. The first potential support is located at 1.3280, where we expect bullish action to resume.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic scene is light today for the Pound, without any important data releases. The technical aspect will decide the pair’s direction unless surprising events take place.

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FOREX NEWS: BULLS DOMINATE THE MARKET BUT TECHNICAL INDICATORS ENTER DEEP OVERBOUGHT TERRITORY. PULLBACKS FORTHCOMING?

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the German IFO Business Climate posted an all-time high figure of 117.5, thus allowing the Euro to make significant advances against an already weak US Dollar and to finish the day almost 100 pips higher.

Technical Outlook

Momentum is clearly bullish and the pair broke a very important zone of resistance (1.1860 – 1.1875) but these types of moves are usually followed by a pullback or at least a period of sideways movement. The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are deep in overbought territory, thus increasing the chances of a retracement lower.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable release of the day is the U.S. New Home Sales, a report that shows how many houses were sold during the previous month. The expected number is 627K (annualized format) and a higher reading shows increased economic health, thus strengthening the greenback but the impact is medium.


GBP/USD

Price action was mostly bullish Friday and the pair broke the resistance at 1.3320, reaching a high at 1.3360 before retracing lower. The US Dollar continues to be on the retreat, with only minor signs of strength.

Technical Outlook

After an almost perfect bounce at 1.3280, which is now support, the pair exited the long term range by breaking the resistance at 1.3320. Price action during the next few days will show whether the break was true or not and until then, the levels to watch are 1.3360 (Friday’s high) as potential resistance and of course 1.3320, which may turn into support.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic releases for today, so the technical aspect and the U.S. home sales numbers will decide market direction.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TAKES CENTER STAGE AS FED CHAIRMAN DESIGNATE POWELL TESTIFIES IN WASHINGTON DC

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair made new advances during the early stages of yesterday’s trading session and pierced through last week’s high at 1.1944. However, the US Dollar showed signs of recovery in the afternoon and price returned below resistance.

Technical Outlook

After moving above 1.1944 and returning below it, the pair is now showing two candles with a very long wick in their upper part. This rejection combined with the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index, increases the chances of a move lower that may find support around 1.1900 - 1.1875. However, the pair’s movement will likely be influenced by the testimony of Fed Chair Designate Powell, so the technical aspect may be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT, Fed Chair Designate Jerome Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee. He is designated to become Chairman of the Federal Reserve starting in February 2018, so his speech will probably have a strong impact on the US Dollar, thus caution should be used.

At the same time the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey comes out, showing the opinions of about 5,000 households about current and future economic conditions. The expected reading is 123.9 and higher numbers usually strengthen the greenback because rising consumer confidence is indicative of future increase in consumer spending.


GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound won the early battle against the US Dollar but the gains were erased in the second part of yesterday’s trading session, partly due to better than expected U.S. house sales.

Technical Outlook

The last candle shows a huge upper wick, which is a clear and strong sign of rejection and this is the main reason why we expect to see today a drop into 1.3320. If that support is broken, the medium term uptrend will be weakened and we will probably see more choppy movement. Both currencies are affected today by major events and those will play a major role for direction.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:00 am GMT the Bank of England will reveal the Bank Stress Test Results and the Financial Stability Report. Half an hour later, BOE Governor Carney will hold a press conference about the two releases that were just mentioned and this cluster of events is likely to generate strong volatility on all Pound pairs, so caution is recommended.

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FOREX NEWS: POWELL’S TESTIMONY BOOSTS THE US DOLLAR. GERMAN INFLATION AND U.S. GDP EYED FOR NEXT MOVE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The text of Fed Chair Designate Powell’s testimony was released 17 hours earlier than initially scheduled. However, during his hearing before the Senate Committee he showed a hawkish stance, giving a boost to the US Dollar.

Technical Outlook

The anticipated pullback happened yesterday and the pair dropped to touch the support at 1.1875 but price action is still choppy, with long candle wicks and small bodies. However, the market seems to be receiving well the nomination of Jerome Powell as next Fed Chair, so we expect to see increased demand for the US Dollar and a move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:00 pm GMT we take a look at German inflation with the release of their Preliminary Consumer Price Index. The anticipated change is 0.3% and under normal conditions, higher numbers strengthen the shared currency.

For the US Dollar the most important release will be the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product, which is expected to increase to 3.3% compared to the previous 3.0%. This is the main gauge of overall economic performance, so a higher reading strengthens the greenback. The data comes out at 1:30 pm GMT.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT, Fed Chair Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress about the U.S. economic outlook. The event should be treated with caution.


GBP/USD

The pair dropped at the time of Powell’s testimony but the impact was much bigger than the one seen on EUR/USD, mostly because the Pound was weaker at the time. Also the US Consumer Sentiment survey posted a much better than anticipated figure aiding the drop.

Technical Outlook

Price dropped through several support levels, including the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and is now trading very close to 1.3225 support. The long distance travelled yesterday calls for a retracement to the upside and the Relative Strength Index is approaching oversold, thus supporting this view; however, we don’t expect the pair to climb above the 50 EMA. A break of 1.3225 will open the door for a move into 1.3175.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT, BOE Governor Carney will speak at the Fixed Income Currencies and Commodities Markets Standards Board about the Fair and Effective Markets Review. This is not a major testimony or press conference so the impact may not be huge but caution is recommended nonetheless.

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FOREX NEWS: POUND SOARS ON FRESH BREXIT NEWS. KEY RESISTANCE TARGETED

EUR/USD

Forex News: German inflation data and U.S. Gross Domestic Product matched analysts’ expectation yesterday and each strengthened the respective currency. The pair bounced at support but failed to break resistance and moved lower again, creating irregular movement.

Technical Outlook

The next big move will be decided by the break of 1.1825 support or 1.1875 resistance because yesterday the pair was rejected by both these levels, thus increasing their importance. Price is testing support for the second time but at the time of writing it is showing rejection and has moved back above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, facts which make us anticipate a move into 1.1875 and possibly a break.

Fundamental Outlook

The highlight of the day will be the release of the European CPI Flash Estimate, which is the main gauge of inflation across the Eurozone and has a high impact on the currency itself. The expected change is 1.6% from the previous 1.4% and anything above forecast strengthens the Euro; the time of release is 10:00 am GMT.


GBP/USD

News that the EU and UK have reached an agreement regarding the Brexit “divorce” bill, boosted the Pound to fresh highs and took the pair 200 pips higher. The pair gave up some of the gains later in the day but momentum favours the bulls.

Technical Outlook

The bounce seen at 1.3225 was generated by strong fundamental reasons, not so much by the technical side, so the effects may extend over a longer period. In the short term we expect to see a touch of the key resistance located at 1.3450 (better seen on a Daily chart), where we expect to see a pullback.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic scene is calm today for the Pound, without any scheduled releases. That being said, caution is recommended because the Pound is prone to strong movement if surprising news come out.

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FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE IS SHATTERED AS A NEW WAVE OF US DOLLAR WEAKNESS HITS THE MARKET

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair showed choppy movement early during yesterday’s session but in the afternoon the US Dollar came under heavy selling pressure and price shot through 1.1875 resistance.

Technical Outlook

After failing to break 1.1825 support or to close below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair started to rally strongly without any high impact news behind the move. Price is now out of the consolidation area between 1.1875 and 1.1825, showing strong momentum, facts which make us anticipate a touch of 1.1945 – 1.1950 resistance in the near term. If price reaches that mark we expect it to bounce lower, at least momentarily.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s most notable release will be the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, which is a survey of about 400 purchasing managers who are asked to rate business conditions in the manufacturing sector. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health and optimism, with higher numbers strengthening the greenback. The time of release is 3:00 pm GMT and the expected reading is 58.4.


GBP/USD

The pair continued its ascension yesterday and moved through the psychological resistance at 1.3500. The move was mostly due to US Dollar weakness and a positive sentiment surrounding the Pound.

Technical Outlook

After the initial push above 1.3450, price returned to re-test the level, which rejected it higher, turning into support. This level was a strong resistance (better seen on a Daily chart), so we can expect it to act as strong support in the future. As long as the pair remains above 1.3500, the next destination is 1.3600 but that mark will not be hit today probably, unless surprises happen. The Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought, warning of potential retracements.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI is today’s only highlight for the Pound, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a reading of 56.6. Just like the U.S. PMI mentioned above, this survey tries to gauge optimism among purchasing managers and usually strengthens the Pound if it shows a reading above expectations.