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FOREX NEWS: BANK OF ENGLAND EXPECTED TO HIKE. POUND LOADED AND READY TO SPIKE IN VOLATILITY

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair remained relatively calm throughout yesterday’s trading session and the FOMC decided to maintain the rate unchanged as it was widely expected, so the impact was mild. However, price reached support on the back of upbeat information contained in the Rate Statement.

Technical Outlook

The pair has created short-time resistance around 1.1655 – 1.1660 and is now testing the support at 1.1610, with the oscillators showing a bearish bias. This means that the bullish pullback may be over and that we will see a break of the current support, followed by a move into the low at 1.1575; however, a bounce from 1.1610 – 1.1600 will most likely take the pair into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Our bias remains bearish and we consider the move up just a normal retracement after a big drop.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Unemployment Claims will be today’s only highlight, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a number of 235K. The indicator has a low-to-medium impact, mostly because it is released weekly so the changes are not significant; however, a higher number of unemployed individuals usually weakens the currency, due to consumer spending implications.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the Pound bulls took price above the resistance at 1.3280 on the back of a better than expected British Manufacturing PMI but the US Dollar made a comeback later in the session and brought the pair below the previously mentioned level.

Technical Outlook

Price shows rejection at 1.3320 and has moved below the previous resistance at 1.3280 after an overbought condition showed by the Relative Strength Index. These are clear bearish signs, which suggest that we will likely see an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. That being said, today’s price action will be heavily affected by Bank of England’s rate decision, thus the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is a huge day for the Pound, mainly because the Bank of England is expected to hike the interest rate from the current 0.25% to 0.50%. If this happens, we will likely see increased volatility and strength for the Pound.

The announcement is scheduled at 12:00 pm GMT and at the same time the BOE will release their Inflation Report, containing economic and inflation projections for the next 2 years. Half an hour later, at 12:30 pm GMT, BOE Governor Carney will hold a press conference, discussing the Inflation Report. This is another reason for increased volatility, so caution is strongly advised.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR PREPARES FOR THE BIGGEST RELEASE OF THE WEEK: U.S. NON-FARM PAYROLLS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair behaved erratically yesterday and dropped below 1.1600 support just to jump higher immediately after. Price remained below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but this type of price action calls for caution.

Technical Outlook

The last candle seen on the chart shows that volatility is high but the market is still unsure about the next direction. As long as the pair is trading below the 50 period EMA and below the resistance zone between 1.1670 – 1.1700, our bias remains bearish but as mentioned before, caution is advised because a clear direction cannot be predicted. Also, today’s technical aspect will be secondary to the fundamental due to the important NFP release.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event of the day is without a doubt the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, a report that shows changes in the total number of employed people, excluding the farming industry. This is widely regarded as the most important U.S. jobs data and has a strong impact on the greenback almost every time. Today’s release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 311K (previous -33K); higher numbers usually strengthen the greenback and show increased economic activity.


GBP/USD

The Bank of England decided to hike the interest rate to 0.50% but this was somewhat priced into the market, so the Pound was more affected by the forward guidance offered by the Bank, saying that “very gradual” increases are expected.

Technical Outlook

The strong move seen yesterday and the break of 1.3100 support could mean that the ranging period is over and that we will see a more directional behaviour in the future. For the short term we expect to see a touch of 1.3030 support where a retracement will probably occur. Of course, the pair’s movement today will be heavily affected by the U.S. employment data.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Services PMI is released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers about business and economic conditions in the services sector. A higher number than the anticipated 53.3 usually strengthens the currency but the impact is mild if the actual number matches expectations.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR THREATENS SUPPORT DESPITE NFP COMING OUT BELOW EXPECTATIONS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls released Friday failed to meet the market expectation of 312K but still showed a higher number than previous. This initially created a spike up, which was soon reversed and the pair ended the trading week on support.

Technical Outlook

Price action is choppy lately and the pair hasn’t made any clear moves after the drop into 1.1575. Currently it is stuck inside the horizontal channel created by 1.1610 support and 1.1670 resistance and until we see a clean break, we can expect more of the same choppy movement. However, the Euro bulls failed to take price above the 50 period EMA and the current momentum is bearish, with the US Dollar boosted by the Non-Farm Payrolls numbers. This makes us anticipate a break of current support, followed by a move into 1.1575.

Fundamental Outlook

We don’t have anything of note on the economic calendar for the Euro and US Dollar today but the Eurogroup Meetings take place and this may be a reason for increased volatility. However the Meetings are closed to the press and usually don’t have a huge impact unless some important decisions are made.


GBP/USD

The pair spiked above 1.3100 Friday at the time of the NFP release but the gains were soon erased after the market digested the numbers, so the session ended below resistance, very close to the opening of the day.

Technical Outlook

There is still bearish pressure on the pair and rejection at 1.3100 resistance was clearly seen Friday, so for today we expect a touch of 1.3030 support but the oscillators are not showing enough bearish momentum (Stochastic is oversold, RSI is approaching that territory). This means that a touch of 1.3030 will be probably followed by a bounce up; if that level is breached, then 1.3000 will be the next place where the pair may start to move up. A break of these levels will probably trigger an extended period of downside movement and would mark the end of the ranging phase.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by economic data releases, so the technical aspect will be the deciding factor for the pair’s direction.

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FOREX NEWS: PAIRS DRIFTING WITHOUT CLEAR DIRECTION. ECB’S DRAGHI AND FED’S YELLEN SET TO DELIVER SPEECHES

EUR/USD

Forex News: Monday’s trading session had a bearish bias but overall action was slow and no major developments took place, mostly due to the lack of fundamental incentives.

Technical Outlook

Although price action was slow yesterday, the bears remained in control and took price close to the support located at 1.1575 but there’s an overall lack of conviction from both sides, so we may see a bounce higher when the pair will reach the support level mentioned earlier. The Relative Strength Index is approaching oversold, increasing the possibility of a move up. A clean break of 1.1575 would make 1.1480 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook

ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver opening remarks in Frankfurt at the ECB Forum on Banking Supervision, at 9:00 am GMT. Later in the day, at 7:30 pm GMT, Fed Chair Yellen will speak in Washington DC, accepting the Paul H. Douglas Award for Ethics in Government. We don’t expect these speeches to generate huge volatility because they are not directly related to monetary policy, but caution is advised nonetheless.


GBP/USD

The pair had a bullish bias yesterday and moved again above 1.3100 but at the time of writing price is still hovering near the level so a clear break hasn’t occurred. The economic scene lacked important releases so the move was mostly technical.

Technical Outlook

If the bulls can maintain price above 1.3100, we will most likely see a move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but as long as that line remains resistance, our bias is bearish. If the pair drops below 1.3100, we expect a touch of 1.3030 and possibly 1.3000. The Pound is still very vulnerable to any Brexit talks so it can jump or drop at any time and this makes the entire picture unclear.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by major economic data, so the technical aspect will decide the pair’s direction.

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FOREX NEWS: PAIRS ON THE DOWNSLIDE, AMID A LACKLUSTRE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair showed rejection at resistance yesterday and picked up speed, moving south and breaching the previous low at 1.1575. The move was mostly due to increased US Dollar demand, in absence of any notable economic data.

Technical Outlook

The pair breached the nearly 4-month low at 1.1575 and this will most likely generate additional selling pressure, taking price into the 1.1500 zone (psychological level), followed by 1.1480 (technical level). However, before those targets can be reached, we will probably see moves up, possibly a re-test of 1.1575 from below but at the time of writing this support is not clearly broken. The Relative Strength Index is approaching oversold territory and this may contribute to a bullish move.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s economic calendar is lacklustre, without any notable releases, so the pair’s direction will be decided by the technical aspect unless surprise announcements occur.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s trading session lacked major economic news but the pair showed relatively good momentum and erased a part of the move up seen Friday. Resistance is still holding and the pair is approaching support.

Technical Outlook

After moving slightly above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.3160, price reversed, showing that we are not dealing with a true break of resistance. This means that today we will probably see a touch of 1.3100 support, where the next direction will be decided: a break will take the pair into 1.3030, testing the lower boundary of the range, while a bounce will make 1.3160 the target once more.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the other two currencies, the Pound will not be affected by economic data today so the main focus will be on the technical aspect.

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FOREX NEWS: RANGING PHASE IS APPROACHING AN END. PREPARE FOR STRONG BREAKOUTS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The choppiness continued yesterday and the pair drifted generally sideways. This was mostly due to a lackluster economic environment, without any important data releases.

Technical Outlook

After what appeared to be a break of 1.1575 support, the pair returned above the level and tested 1.1610 resistance where it turned down again. This type of behavior is characteristic to a ranging market where price bounces between support and resistance without clear direction. Until we get a clean breakout, our bias is mostly neutral, although slightly bearish as long as price is trading below the 50 period EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the European Commission will reveal their Economic Forecasts for the next 2 years. The release is not known to create huge market volatility but if it’s more hawkish than expected, it generally boosts the Euro.

On the US Dollar’s side we have the Unemployment Claims, an indicator that shows how many people asked for unemployment related benefits during the last week. The time of release 1:30 pm GMT and the expected number is 232K; values above expectations usually weaken the US Dollar but the impact is limited.


GBP/USD

The pair took a bearish path yesterday after another attempt to move above 1.3160 resistance. The economic scene was calm, without any market moving releases.

Technical Outlook

Price is facing again the support at 1.3100 and this time we expect to see a break, followed by a move into 1.3030 and possibly 1.3000. We base this prediction mostly on the fact that the bulls tried to break 1.3160 twice and the pair created a double top just above the level, which is a sign that the buyers lack strength and that bearish pressure is increasing.

Fundamental Outlook

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) will release at 1:00 pm GMT an Estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product. The release usually has a low impact but considering the lack of major economic data this week, we may see a higher effect that usual. The previous estimate was 0.4% and numbers above it can strengthen the Pound.

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FOREX NEWS: EURO PUSHES ABOVE RESISTANCE, OVERALL PRICE ACTION STILL CHOPPY

EUR/USD

Forex News: The EU Economic Forecasts showed that growth is on the right track and this boosted the Euro during yesterday’s trading session, taking the pair above immediate resistance and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Technical Outlook

The pair continued its raging behaviour but broke above 1.1610 and above the 50 EMA, making the short term outlook bullish. If this bias continues, the pair will probably reach the top of the range, located at 1.1670 but it must be noted that although the last impulse is bullish, price is still not trending, in other words the next move is uncertain. A quick move below 1.1610 will bring the pair into the previous support at 1.1575.

Fundamental Outlook

Today U.S. banks will be closed in observance of Veterans Day and we expect this to affect volatility, especially in the NY session. The only notable release is scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT in the form of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, which gauges the opinions of consumers regarding current and future economic conditions. Higher numbers than the anticipated 100.8 suggest that consumer spending is likely to pick up in the near future and this usually strengthens the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair remained incredibly choppy during yesterday’s trading session and moved in a tight range, without a clear bias. The NIESR GDP Estimate was rescheduled for today so the pair wasn’t affected by economic data.

Technical Outlook

The type of price action seen lately doesn’t offer any hints for future direction but usually this type of tight and choppy movement is followed by a strong breakout. The direction of said breakout cannot be determined and will probably be influenced by the British economic data released today. The levels to watch remain 1.3100 as support and 1.3160 as resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing Production numbers come out, showing changes in the total value of goods generated by the Manufacturing sector. The anticipated change is 0.3% (previous 0.4%) and usually a higher number strengthens the Pound but the impact is limited if the actual reading matches the forecast.

As mentioned before, NIESR rescheduled for today the release of their GDP Estimate. The time is 1:00 pm GMT and the previous value is of course, unchanged at 0.4%.

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FOREX NEWS: BULLS MAKE A PUSH FOR RESISTANCE. MARKET STILL RANGE-BOUND

EUR/USD

Forex News: U.S. consumer sentiment data disappointed Friday, allowing the Euro bulls to take price above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and into the resistance at 1.1670. The pair posted fresh weekly highs but it didn’t exit the ranging phase.

Technical Outlook

The latest impulse favours the buyers but in the past the pair had difficulties breaking the resistance around 1.1670 and now it’s facing the same level again. A long upper wick is clearly seen in Friday’s price action and this is a sign of rejection; also, the Stochastic is above its 80 level (overbought) and the Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought territory. All this could be indicative of a bounce lower from the current level and if this happens, the 50 EMA will be the first target, where the next direction will be decided. A move above 1.1670 will take price into 1.1700 but we don’t expect a break of that hurdle.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is light today for both currencies, without any notable releases, thus the technical aspect will decide market direction.


GBP/USD

British Manufacturing Production increased 0.7% as opposed to the expected 0.3% and this was one of the reasons for Friday’s climb. Price bounced lower late in the session but the short term bias favours the bulls.

Technical Outlook

Although the latest momentum is bullish, the pair is still in a range from a longer term perspective and this means that we could very well see a move down from the current resistance (1.3225). To the downside the first notable level is 1.3175 (previous resistance that may turn into support), followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. We don’t expect huge moves today, unless something surprising happens.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound will not be affected today by economic data releases and this may translate in a slow, ranging session.

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FOREX NEWS: HEADS OF CENTRAL BANKS GATHER FOR PANEL DISCUSSIONS. BREAKOUTS EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair showed a ranging session yesterday, approaching the 50 period EMA and then bouncing higher, without enough force to break resistance. The lack of major economic releases contributed to the slow movement.

Technical Outlook

Price remains range-bound, capped to the upside by the resistance at 1.1670 and to the downside by the 50 Exponential Moving Average. Today we have a busier day, with more economic data than yesterday, so we expect to see a break of horizontal resistance (1.1670) or dynamic support (50 EMA) and the break will probably decide the direction for the day. As long as these technical indicators are intact, our bias is neutral.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Flash version of the Eurozone GDP comes out, showing the overall performance of the economy. The expected change is 0.6%, same as previous and usually a higher number strengthens the Euro but to a limited extent.

At the same time the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey is released, showing the opinions of about 300 German institutional analysts and investors about the state of the economy, as well as an outlook for the next 6 months. The forecast is 19.8 and higher numbers show optimism, thus strengthening the single currency.

At the same time, 10:00 am GMT, ECB President Draghi, Fed Chair Yellen and BOE Governor Carney will participate in a panel discussion named “At the heart of policy: challenges and opportunities of central bank communication”. The discussion will take place at the Central Bank Communications Conference hosted by the ECB, in Frankfurt and the impact cannot be predicted but caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

He Pound dropped early in yesterday’s trading session due to concerns that British Prime Minister May could be asked to step down by her own political party. After dropping below 1.3100 support the pair recovered some of the losses.

Technical Outlook

Although price moved above 1.3100 after initially breaking it, the short term momentum still favours the bears and for today we expect to see a break of 1.3100 and a consequent move into 1.3030. As an alternate scenario, if the pair breaks the 50 period EMA to the upside, it will probably move into the resistance at 1.3175.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main event for the Pound will be the release of the British Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a change of 3.1% compared to the previous 3.0%. This is the main gauge of inflation and is carefully watched by the Bank of England when deciding where to set the interest rate. Higher values usually strengthen the Pound.

BOE Governor Carney will participate in the panel discussion mentioned earlier and this can generate increased volatility on Pound pairs.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR UNDER HEAVY PRESSURE AHEAD OF INFLATION AND RETAIL SALES DATA

EUR/USD

Forex News: Selling pressure around the greenback increased yesterday and the pair broke above the resistance at 1.1670, a fact which triggered additional upside movement.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday the pair moved about 100 pips higher, which can be considered a huge move given the lack of volatility seen lately. Strong moves are usually followed by a pullback before price can advance further and this view is also supported by the fact that the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are both overbought. After this potential retracement, we expect the upside movement to continue towards 1.1825 resistance but a lot will depend on the U.S. data released today.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s a big day for the greenback, with two important releases: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Retail Sales, both scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The CPI shows changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase and acts as one of the main gauges of inflation. The forecast for today is 0.1% and higher numbers usually strengthen the currency. The CORE version of the indicator, which excludes food and energy from calculation will be released at the same time and expected to show a change of 0.2%.

The Retail Sales are expected to show a change of 0.0% from the previous 1.6% and because this is the main gauge of consumer spending, higher than anticipated numbers strengthen the US Dollar and the opposite is true for lower numbers.


GBP/USD

The pair remained relatively choppy yesterday, with some bearish movement generated by the worse than expected British CPI value (actual 3.0%, forecast 3.1%). Most of the action took place near 1.3100, without substantial developments.

Technical Outlook

Price action is choppy lately and all moves result in candles with long wicks, which is a clear sign of indecision. The ranging phase will continue until a breakout occurs. The levels to watch are 1.3100 (a break should be confirmed by a re-test), followed by 1.3030 to the downside. To the upside the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is the first potential resistance, followed by 1.3175.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Average Earning Index comes out, showing changes in the price paid by employers for labour. A higher number indicates that inflation may increase in the near future because if businesses pay higher labour costs, this will usually translate into a higher price paid by the consumer. Today’s forecast is 2.1%, while the previous was 2.2%.