外汇分析 | Gdmfx Brokerage | 每日报告

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: ECB PRESIDENT DRAGHI TESTIFIES. BEWARE OF SUDDEN VOLATILITY SPIKES

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the pair moved higher on the back of better than expected numbers for the European Purchasing Managers’ Indexes but the key resistance at 1.2000 pushed the pair lower and erased all gains, so the session ended close to where it started.

Technical Outlook

Friday’s price action doesn’t offer a lot of clues for the next move and overall the pair remains in a range, without clear direction. Strong resistance is located at 1.2000 and to the downside, if the pair can move below the 50 EMA, it might drop into 1.1900. Today’s price action will probably be affected by the German Federal Elections that took place Sunday, so the technical side will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 1:00 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will testify in Brussels before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, about monetary developments and the economy. This has the potential to be a high-impact event, so caution is recommended.

The day’s other notable event is the release of the German IFO Business Climate, which is a survey derived from the opinions of about 7,000 businesses, focused on economic optimism and outlook for the next 6-months. The time of the release is 8:00 am GMT and the expected value is 116.0, a small increase from the previous 115.9.


GBP/USD

British Prime Minister May delivered a speech Friday in Florence, mentioning that the U.K. will be leaving the single market and the customs union. This was the main reasons for the weakening of the Pound but support wasn’t breached.

Technical Outlook

The last 4-hour candle shows a long wick in its lower part, which is a sign of rejection. Also, price is bouncing off of the confluence zone created by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the horizontal support at 1.3450. Strictly from a technical point of view, all this suggests that price will probably bounce higher but the fundamental side (represented by Prime Minster May’s stance) indicates that lower prices will follow. Look for a break of the confluence zone because if it occurs, more sellers will probably join.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important releases for today, thus the pair’s direction will be mainly decided by the technical aspect.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: RANGE-BOUND TRADING CONTINUES BUT BEARISH PRESSURE INCREASES

EUR/USD

Forex News: Following the German Federal Elections, the Euro depreciated against the US Dollar and the pair had a bearish session yesterday, moving below support. However, price is still confined in a range and a clear trend is not in place.

Technical Outlook

The short term momentum belongs to the bears and the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but 1.1875 support is still holding at the time of writing. Once this level is broken, we expect a quick move into 1.1840, which is a more important level and a break would suggest that a downtrend may be developing. To the upside the first resistance is 1.1900, followed by the 50 period EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Consumer Confidence is today’s first event, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. The survey has a large sample size (about 5,000 households) and tries to gauge the respondents’ opinions regarding current and future economic conditions. The expected reading is 119.6 and usually a higher number shows optimism, strengthening the US Dollar but the impact is generally medium.

At 4:45 pm GMT, Fed Chair Yellen will speak in Cleveland at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting. The title of the speech is "Inflation, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy" and audience questions are expected, so depending on her answers, we may see increased volatility on USD pairs.


GBP/USD

The pair remained in a range during yesterday’s trading session, mostly due to the lack of economic releases. No major developments took place and price action was choppy.

Technical Outlook

The pair is still capped by the resistance at 1.3616 and the support at 1.3450, with the 50 period EMA in close vicinity. Until we see a clear break of this horizontal channel, the direction will be unclear and the pair will continue to show range-bound behavior. A strong break of the confluence zone created by the 50 EMA and 1.3450 support would weaken the uptrend, thus increasing bearish pressure.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s a slow day for the Pound from an economic standpoint, without any notable releases. This may be another reason for ranging price action.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR GAINS TRACTION, BREAKS KEY SUPPORT LEVELS

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session belonged to the bears, on the back of increasing demand for US Dollars and anxiety coming from the German political scene. Key support was broken and the pair reached its lowest point in 5 weeks.

Technical Outlook

After a very small bounce at 1.1840 support, the pair broke the level and moved lower, approaching the minor support around 1.1775. This is not a key level but combined with the oversold position of the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic, it might trigger a bounce higher. It must be noted that yesterday’s move established the first lower low after a long while and this is a sign that the long term uptrend (seen on Daily charts) has weakened. After a potential retracement north, the pair will be likely headed towards 1.1700 zone.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the US Durable Goods Orders come out, showing changes in the total value of orders for goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years. Higher values suggest increased economic activity (producers will increase activity to fill the orders) and usually strengthen the US Dollar but to a limited extent (medium impact). The forecast is a change of 1.1% from the previous -6.8%.


GBP/USD

US Dollar strength was seen against the Sterling as well yesterday and the pair broke the important level at 1.3450, as well as the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, setting the stage for a stronger move south.

Technical Outlook

After a small bounce, the pair moved out of the horizontal channel, breaking the confluence zone represented by 1.3450 support and the 50 EMA. This shows that the US Dollar is gaining momentum and makes the short term bias bearish. The pair seems headed towards the next target, located at 1.1330 but it is clear that price is in an uptrend from a longer term perspective so most likely we will see moves to the upside in the future. A quick move above 1.3450 and the 50 EMA would suggest that the initial break of support was fake and would invalidate the bearish scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important news releases for today, so the pair’s direction will be decided by the technical aspect and the U.S. economic data.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: FULL DAY AHEAD: GERMAN INFLATION, U.S. GDP AND MARK CARNEY’S SPEECH

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar posted another win over the Euro in yesterday’s trading session, by breaking 1.1775 minor support and approaching the more important level at 1.1713. Part of the greenback’s strength was due to a better than expected reading for the U.S. Durable Goods Orders.

Technical Outlook

The balance of power is clearly tilted towards the US Dollar but from a longer term perspective (daily charts), the pair is still in an uptrend (it must be noted that the uptrend is now weakened, as the pair has moved below the 50 days EMA). This uptrend combined with the oversold position of the Relative Strength Index and the long wicks of the last few candles, suggests that we are likely to see a bounce higher from the current support zone at 1.1713 – 1.1700. We have important data coming out today and this will play a big role for direction.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index comes out, showing changes in the price that German consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase. The CPI acts as the main gauge of inflation and higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro.

At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Final Gross Domestic product will be released and expected to show a reading of 3.0%, same as previous. This is the main gauge of economic performance, thus higher numbers usually generate strength for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair remained below the previous support at 1.3450 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average for the entire trading session but in the afternoon some of the gains were erased and small bounces occurred.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action shows that the break of 1.3450 support wasn’t fake, so now we can expect to see a longer period of downside movement, with 1.3300 as first target. The break of the confluence zone (1.3450 and the 50 period EMA) is an important victory for the bears but there’s still enough buying pressure in the market so we cannot rule out a re-test of 1.3450 or even a break.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:15 am GMT, BOE Governor Carney will deliver an opening speech in London at the Bank of England's conference celebrating 20 years of independence. As a rule of thumb, all speeches of heads of central banks should be treated with caution but of course the exact impact is not known.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: BULLISH PRESSURE MOUNTS AHEAD OF EUROPEAN CPI

EUR/USD

Forex News: The German Preliminary CPI came out as expected, showing a change of 0.1% and the United States Final GDP posted a change of 3.1%, slightly higher than the forecast 3.0%. However, the data wasn’t a strong market mover and the pair climbed mostly on technical reasons.

Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic were oversold and price came very close to 1.1713 support. Also, the pair is still in an uptrend from a Daily chart perspective so all these reasons contributed to a bounce at support. The current move will likely retrace to re-test the level at 1.1775; if the level holds and turns into support, we will probably see an extended move north, with 1.1840 as first target. We don’t expect significant moves above 1.1840 unless surprising developments take place. If the pair moves below 1.1775, we expect a move into 1.1713 – 1.1700.

Fundamental Outlook

The European Flash Estimate Consumer Price Index will be today’s highlight for the Euro. This is the main gauge of inflation and usually has a high impact on the single currency, with higher numbers strengthening it. The time of release is 9:00 am GMT and the expected change is 1.6% compared to the previous 1.5%.


GBP/USD

The pair approached 1.3330 support but the bears ran out of steam and the Pound erased the previous losses, climbing into 1.3450 resistance. Mark Carney’s speech did not create huge volatility and went mostly unnoticed.

Technical Outlook

The pair is facing an important hurdle represented by the resistance at 1.3450 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If this confluence zone is broken, it will show that the Pound is regaining its previous strength and would also indicate that we are headed into higher territory. On the other hand, a bounce lower from here will make 1.3330 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The Final version of the British GDP will be released today at 8:30 am GMT, and expected to show a 0.3% change, same as previous. This is the last version and thus it tends to have the lowest impact but it’s an important indicator nonetheless so it shouldn’t be overlooked.

At 2:00 pm GMT BOE, Governor Mark Carney will deliver closing remarks at the Bank of England's conference celebrating 20 years of independence. Considering that yesterday’s opening speech didn’t create huge volatility, probably the same will happen today but of course, this kind of speeches should always be treated with caution.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: BREAKOUTS IN THE MAKING. MANUFACTURING DATA EYED FOR NEXT DIRECTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the pair continued higher above 1.1775 and approached the 50 period Exponential Moving Average despite a weaker than anticipated Eurozone Consumer Price Index. Overall price action was choppy and volatility was relatively low.

Technical Outlook

The latest bullish impulse lacks strong momentum and candles are showing long wicks, which is a sign of indecision. That being said, it is very possible to see a climb into the confluence zone created by the 50 period EMA and the horizontal resistance at 1.1840 but it will be tough for the Euro bulls to punch through that mark. We expect to see a bounce lower from 1.1840 but overall, volatility will probably remain low.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Manufacturing PMI is today’s only highlight in terms of economic releases. This is a survey of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector that tries to gauge their opinions about business conditions and overall health of the sector. The time of release is 2:00 pm GMT and the expected reading is 57.9; higher numbers are beneficial to the US Dollar but the impact is medium.


GBP/USD

The first part of Friday’s trading session was bearish, with the pair descending into the support at 1.3350. The British GDP numbers came out below expectations, contributing to the initial drop but the pair recovered in the second part of the session.

Technical Outlook

Price is trapped between the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the support at 1.3350. This is a relatively tight range and today we expect a breakout but the direction is not clear. However, rejection is clearly seen at support (two candles with long lower wicks) and the pair is in an uptrend from a longer term perspective, so the balance is slightly tilted towards the bulls.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for release at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a figure of 56.3. Same as the U.S. PMI discussed earlier, this survey acts as a gauge of optimism and economic health, with higher numbers being beneficial for the currency.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: BREAKOUTS IN THE MAKING. MANUFACTURING DATA EYED FOR NEXT DIRECTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the pair continued higher above 1.1775 and approached the 50 period Exponential Moving Average despite a weaker than anticipated Eurozone Consumer Price Index. Overall price action was choppy and volatility was relatively low.

Technical Outlook

The latest bullish impulse lacks strong momentum and candles are showing long wicks, which is a sign of indecision. That being said, it is very possible to see a climb into the confluence zone created by the 50 period EMA and the horizontal resistance at 1.1840 but it will be tough for the Euro bulls to punch through that mark. We expect to see a bounce lower from 1.1840 but overall, volatility will probably remain low.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Manufacturing PMI is today’s only highlight in terms of economic releases. This is a survey of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector that tries to gauge their opinions about business conditions and overall health of the sector. The time of release is 2:00 pm GMT and the expected reading is 57.9; higher numbers are beneficial to the US Dollar but the impact is medium.


GBP/USD

The first part of Friday’s trading session was bearish, with the pair descending into the support at 1.3350. The British GDP numbers came out below expectations, contributing to the initial drop but the pair recovered in the second part of the session.

Technical Outlook

Price is trapped between the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the support at 1.3350. This is a relatively tight range and today we expect a breakout but the direction is not clear. However, rejection is clearly seen at support (two candles with long lower wicks) and the pair is in an uptrend from a longer term perspective, so the balance is slightly tilted towards the bulls.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for release at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a figure of 56.3. Same as the U.S. PMI discussed earlier, this survey acts as a gauge of optimism and economic health, with higher numbers being beneficial for the currency.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: GERMANY CELEBRATES UNITY DAY. IRREGULAR VOLATILITY EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair showed surprisingly high activity, characterized by bearish momentum and a clear break of 1.1775. The U.S. Manufacturing Index showed a better than anticipated reading but the release wasn’t the main reason for the drop.



Technical Outlook

The strong move through 1.1775 indicates that price is likely to continue on a downward path, at least until 1.1713 – 1.1700 is reached and we expect that to happen today. It’s very possible to see a re-test of the recently broken level at 1.1775 but as long as that level remains intact, the bias remains negative. A break of the mentioned support would further solidify the control of the bears for the medium term.

Fundamental Outlook

German banks will be closed today in celebration of German Unity Day and no major economic data will be released. The United States economic calendar is also light, meaning that we will probably have a slow trading session.

GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing PMI came out below expectations, a fact which triggered a downslide below 1.3350 and very close to the support at 1.3250. Overall yesterday was a strongly bearish session, with the sellers in almost complete control.



Technical Outlook

Yesterday the pair showed strong bearish momentum, advancing more than 100 pips to the downside but sharp moves are usually followed by a retracement or at least a period of sideways movement. On top of that, the Relative Strength Index is now oversold and the pair has reached a support level at 1.3250. All these factors point towards a potential bounce higher but even if this is true, we don’t expect to see a move above 1.3350 because the current bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI will be released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers from the Construction sector about business conditions and the health of said sector. The survey has a medium impact, but higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound; the expected reading for today is 51.2.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR IN THE LIMELIGHT: FIRST LOOK AT UNITED STATES EMPLOYMENT

EUR/USD
Forex News: Yesterday the pair bounced higher after an initial break of 1.1713 support. Most of the session was bullish but this behaviour was somewhat expected.

Technical Outlook
After the bounce at 1.1713 – 1.1700, the pair climbed but encountered resistance at 1.1775. The Relative Strength Index was oversold, which was an early warning that a move like this will soon follow but the overall bias remains bearish and we expect to see a bounce lower from the current level. If this resistance is broken, the pair will probably climb into the 50 period EMA but a lot will depend on the economic data released today.

Fundamental Outlook
Today at 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look at the jobs situation in the United States with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. The report tracks changes in the number of employed people, excluding the farming sector and Government. The impact is lower than the NFP released Friday but higher numbers than the anticipated 151K strengthen the US Dollar nonetheless.
At 5:15 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver opening remarks at the Inauguration of the ECB Visitor Center. Two hours later, at 7:15 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will deliver a speech at a community banking conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. These speeches may have little impact but on the other hand, they could generate increased volatility, so caution is recommended.

GBP/USD
The British Construction PMI came out below market expectations but this didn’t do much for the bears and the pair failed to break 1.3250, instead moving almost sideways, a behavior normal after a big drop.

Technical Outlook
The Relative Strength Index is still in oversold territory and the support at 1.3250 proved strong yesterday although it was breached on several occasions. The pair still needs to move higher before more significant advances south will take place but unless surprises happen, the level at 1.3350 will not be breached today. If a bounce up takes place, 1.3300 is a good psychological level from where downside movement may resume. A break of 1.3250 will make 1.3160 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook
The British Services PMI is today’s only highlight, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. This is a survey of purchasing managers that tries to gauge their opinions about business conditions in the sector and usually has a medium-to-low impact in the Pound. Today’s expected reading is 53.3 and higher numbers are beneficial for the currency.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: RANGE-BOUND TRADING LIKELY COMING TO AN END. BREAKOUTS IMMINENT

EUR/USD
Forex News: The pair had a slower day than expected, mostly because the U.S. employment numbers came very close to analysts’ forecast. Price remained close to 1.1775 resistance, without a clear bias.

Technical Outlook

The pair shows some rejection around 1.1775 and the medium term bias is bearish, so this points toward a bounce from resistance and a move into the support at 1.1713 – 1.1700. If the pair moves above 1.1775, it will encounter the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, which is another place where downside movement may resume. A break of these two resistance levels would show that bullish pressure is increasing and would make 1.1840 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a relatively slow day ahead, with the most notable highlight being the release of the U.S. Factory Orders, which is an indicator that shows the change in the value of orders placed with manufacturers. A higher number suggests increased economic activity and usually strengthens the greenback but the impact is often low. The time of the release is 2:00 pm GMT and the expected change is 1.0% (previous -3.3%).

GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar had a very slow day, hovering near the support at 1.3250 for the entire session. The British Services PMI showed a value slightly above expectations but it wasn’t enough to generate strong movement.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action doesn’t hold any clues for today’s direction but we still consider that a stronger retracement to the north is needed before 1.3250 can be broken. The first upside barrier is the psychological resistance at 1.3300, followed by 1.3350 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; these are good places where bearish movement may resume but it’s also possible to see a break of 1.3250 before these marks are hit.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by important economic releases today, so the technical aspect will be the main factor that will decide the pair’s direction.