外汇分析 | Gdmfx Brokerage | 每日报告

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FOREX NEWS: NEW YEAR’S DAY BRINGS MARKETS TO A STANDSTILL

EUR/USD

Forex News: The entire last week was bullish and the final trading day of 2017 was no exception. Price broke the key resistance at 1.2000 but then retraced and finished the year very close to the level. The fundamental scene lacked any important releases.



Technical Outlook

Today markets across the globe will be closed and price action will come to a stop. Movement will resume Tuesday.

Fundamental Outlook

Banks in most parts of the globe will be closed, celebrating New Year’s Day and no economic data will be released today.

GBP/USD

Friday the bulls took price more than 100 pips higher, breaking 1.3500 and approaching 1.3550 resistance. The session ended with a bounce at resistance and a move lower but the bias remains bullish.



Technical Outlook

Today price action across the board will come to a stop, celebrating to New Year’s Day and trading will resume Tuesday.

Fundamental Outlook

UK banks and financial institutions will be closed today as well, so the markets will come to a stop and activity will resume tomorrow.

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FOREX NEWS: PRICE ACTION RESUMES FOR THE FIRST TRADING DAY OF 2018

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the market stood still as people around the globe celebrated the New Year, so we pick up where we left off Friday, right on the ley resistance at 1.2000.



Technical Outlook

Price direction is difficult to predict because the markets are still under the influence of low trading volumes. Strictly from a technical point of view, the Relative Strength Index is deep in overbought territory and the pair is showing rejection after the move above 1.2000. This suggests that a move lower will follow, so it’s possible to see a descent into the previous level at 1.1945 – 1.1950.

Fundamental Outlook

The pair will not be affected today by any notable economic releases and this may be another reason for irregular price action.

GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair did not move due to New Year celebrations so today we will get a fresh start with the first trading session of 2018.



Technical Outlook

The near-touch of 1.3550 resistance combined with the overbought position of the Relative Strength Index triggered a rejection lower that brought price very close to the psychological level at 1.3500. If this level will be broken, the pair might continue towards 1.3450 but keep in mind that trading volume is still not back to normal and this may translate into irregular or choppy price action.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI will be released today at 9:30 am GMT, showing the opinions of about 600 purchasing managers about business conditions in the Manufacturing sector. It acts as a gauge of optimism and higher numbers than the forecast 58.0 usually strengthen the Pound but today’s impact is difficult to anticipate.

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FOREX NEWS: VOLUMES BACK TO NORMAL. US MANUFACTURING PMI AND FOMC MINUTES EYED FOR NEXT MOVE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Despite being overbought, the pair continued higher yesterday and even approached 1.2092, which is the highest price reached in 2017. Most of the move was due to US Dollar weakness but part of it was erased in the afternoon.



Technical Outlook

Price is deep in overbought territory and it shows rejection after coming close to last year’s high (1.2092). This suggests that we may see a deeper pullback, possibly into 1.2000 but overall the US Dollar is weak against most of its counterparts and the bias is bullish, so once the retracement is over we expect to see a move into 1.2100 area.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. Manufacturing PMI will come out, showing the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers about business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Usually a higher than anticipated number strengthens the US Dollar but the impact is relatively mild; today’s forecast is 58.3.

At 7:00 pm GMT the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest rate meeting, outlining the reasons that determined the rate vote. The release has a higher impact if the document contains hints about future monetary policy, so caution is recommended.

GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing PMI released yesterday came below expectations but this didn’t hinder the pair’s climb, which extended into 1.3550 resistance.  



Technical Outlook

Price bounced at 1.3500, turning this level into support and sending the pair above 1.3550 resistance. The next destination will be the resistance zone at 1.3600 – 1.3616 but the Relative Strength Index is overbought, which is an early sign of a potential pullback. Keep in mind that 1.3550 is an important level, so a clear break will probably bring in additional buyers.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected by construction data in the form of the Purchasing Managers’ Index, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT; the survey acts as a gauge of optimism and numbers above expectations usually strengthen the currency, with a medium impact. Today’s forecast is 53.2, while the previous was 53.1.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS RECOVERY SIGNS. KEY SUPPORT TESTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The first part of yesterday’s trading session was controlled by the bears and the FOMC Minutes added some strength to the US Dollar, revealing that some Fed officials were concerned about low inflation expectations but the majority still expect inflation to rise to 2%.




Technical Outlook

The long awaited retracement finally occurred yesterday and now the pair is testing the level at 1.2000. Both oscillators are showing good downside momentum so we expect price to break the current level and to move closer to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The bias is still bullish and the current move is just a needed retracement but if price moves below the 50 EMA, the uptrend started at 1.1735 might be coming to an end.

Fundamental Outlook

AT 1:15 pm GMT we take a first look at U.S. employment with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is a report that tracks changes in the number of employed individuals, excluding the farming sector and government. It has a lower impact than the Non-Farm Payrolls released tomorrow, but under normal circumstances, higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar. Today’s anticipated reading is 191K, very close to the previous 190K.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar made a comeback early during yesterday’s trading session and dragged the pair into 1.3500 support. The FOMC minutes had a relatively low impact but gave the greenback an extra push.




Technical Outlook

After failing to break 1.3600 resistance the pair retraced lower more than 100 pips, fuelled partly by a worse than anticipated British Construction PMI and partly by the FOMC Meeting Minutes. If the support at 1.3500 will be broken today, we will most likely see an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and possibly with 1.3450. Our bias is bearish for the short term as long as price is trading below 1.3550.

Fundamental Outlook

The Services PMI is the last in this week’s British PMI series but its impact is usually the lowest out of the three. The release is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and the expected reading is 58.1; higher numbers show optimism among purchasing managers from the Services sector and this usually strengthens the Pound but to a limited extent.

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FOREX NEWS: BUCKLE UP FOR THE FIRST NON-FARM PAYROLLS REPORT OF THE YEAR

EUR/USD

Forex News: Despite a much better than expected ADP jobs report, the pair climbed strongly for most of yesterday’s trading session. 1.2000 is now confirmed as strong support and resistance is once again threatened.



Technical Outlook

The previous high was broken today after a textbook retracement that found support at 1.2000 so all hints point towards a trend continuation and a break of 1.2092 (last year’s high). If this barrier is broken, the next hurdle is located far away, in the 1.2280 zone so surely some weeks will pass until (or if) that mark is hit. A lot will depend today on the outcome of the U.S. jobs report, so the technical aspect will be secondary, especially around the time of release.  

Fundamental Outlook

The first major event of the day will be the release of the European Flash Estimate Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 10:00 am GMT. This is the main gauge of inflation in the Eurozone and usually has a strong impact on the single currency, with higher numbers strengthening it. The anticipated change is 1.4%, a drop from the previous 1.5%.

Later in the day the US Non-Farm Payrolls will be released, showing changes in the total number of employed people, excluding the farming sector. This is widely considered the most important US jobs data and has a strong impact on the US Dollar. Higher levels of employment suggest that consumer spending is likely to increase in the near future and this in turn strengthens the greenback. The anticipated change is 188K (previous 228K) and the time of release is 1:30 pm GMT.

GBP/USD

Similar to the EUR/USD, the Cable bounced at support and moved higher throughout yesterday’s session but the Pound’s climb wasn’t as steep as the Euro’s.



Technical Outlook

Our short term outlook is neutral until we see a clear break or bounce at 1.3550. Once that happens, the next respective targets will become 1.3600 or 1.3500 but keep in mind that the pair will be also affected by the U.S. jobs data.

Fundamental Outlook

Today there are no major releases scheduled for the Pound, but the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls will have a direct and probably strong impact on the pair’s movement.

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FOREX NEWS: CHOPPY PRICE ACTION AMID A LACKLUSTER FUNDAMENTAL SCENE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Non-Farm Payrolls released Friday showed a disappointing reading of 148K (anticipated 190K) and this initially generated a climb based on US Dollar weakness. However, the previous value was revised from 228K to 252K and this allowed the greenback to recuperate the losses.



Technical Outlook

After a long move up, the pair failed twice to move above the resistance at 1.2092, which shows that the uptrend is in need of a deeper retracement, with 1.2000 as first target. It is very possible to see a touch of this level today but we don’t expect the move to extend past it, especially because the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is in close vicinity and will provide extra support.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT the Eurozone Retail Sales come out, showing changes in the total value of sales performed through retail outlets across Europe. However, most European states have already released their retail sales data, so this release is less important. Higher numbers than the anticipated 1.4% usually strengthen the Euro.

GBP/USD

Friday’s price action was mainly influenced by the mixed NFP report, which showed a worse than expected number but the previous value was revised better, thus creating a mixed reaction.




Technical Outlook

Given Friday’s choppy price action, the next direction is difficult to anticipate but as long as the pair is trading above 1.3550, the bias is slightly bullish and 1.3600 is the first target. A move below this level will make the 50 period Exponential Moving Average the target for the day. However, due to the lack of economic releases today, it is probable that we will get a slow and possibly ranging trading session.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by any scheduled economic releases, so the technical side will decide the pair’s direction.

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FOREX NEWS: THE DOLLAR STRIKES BACK. BEARISH PRICE ACTION ON THE HORIZON

EUR/USD

Forex News: Monday’s trading session belonged to the bears and the US Dollar made substantial advances south, breaking key support. Part of the US Dollar demand was due to expectations that the Fed may hike rates again in March.




Technical Outlook

The bearish break of the key support at 1.2000 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average brought in more sellers and the pair plummeted in close vicinity of the next support at 1.1945 – 1.1950. Early in today’s session we expect to see a touch of this support and if the move turns into a break of the level, the next target will become 1.1900 – 1.1875. Once the Relative Strength Index becomes oversold, the pair will likely retrace to the upside but as long as it stays below the 50 EMA, our bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The currencies in the pair will not be affected by scheduled major economic releases, thus the technical aspect will take center stage.

GBP/USD

Early during yesterday’s trading session the US Dollar dragged the pair below 1.3550 but soon after it returned to the level, creating choppy price action as expected.




Technical Outlook

The pair remains in a range, without a clear direction but 1.3550 is still important for short term movement. Currently price is touching the level after an initial break so we may be dealing with a re-test, meaning that if the bulls cannot take the pair above the level, it will turn into resistance and we will see moves south. If this is true the 50 EMA will be the first target, followed by the support at 1.3500, otherwise 1.3600 will become the next destination.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and the US Dollar, the Pound will not be affected today by any notable economic data releases.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR CONTINUES ITS RUN. LOWER PRICES STILL EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar continued to strengthen yesterday and the pair was dominated by the bears who managed to break the support at 1.1945 as previously anticipated.




Technical Outlook

The current bias is clearly bearish but the pair has travelled a long distance to the south without a proper pullback and now the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic have both entered oversold. These are signs that point towards a move up during today’s trading session but as long as the pair remains below the 50 EMA, we favour the downside after the said pullback is complete.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we have another slow day from a fundamental standpoint, without any major economic releases for the Euro or US Dollar.

GBP/USD

After moving once again above 1.3550, yesterday the pair finally broke the level as well as the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, indicating that the balance of power is tilting towards the short side.





Technical Outlook

At the time of writing the pair is showing good downside momentum and the 50 EMA seems broken with authority. Unless price quickly reverses and moves above the EMA, we expect to see a break of the support at 1.3500, which if it happens will most likely bring in additional sellers, making 1.3450 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production will be today’s only notable release, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. The report shows changes in the total value of goods generated by the manufacturing sector and usually has a medium but positive impact on the Pound if the actual reading surpasses estimates. Today’s forecast is a change of 0.3% compared to the previous 0.1%.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TAKES A BLOW AFTER CHINA NEWS. RESISTANCE STILL HOLDS, BUT FOR HOW LONG?

EUR/USD

Forex News: During yesterday’s trading session the US Dollar took a big hit after news emerged that China is planning to stop buying US government bonds. The pair rallied sharply into 1.2000 area but the level is still holding at the time of writing.




Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s move took the pair slightly above 1.2000 resistance but some of the losses were erased as the US Dollar recovered. Currently price is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the US Dollar seems weak across the board, so we may very well see a break of 1.2000 and if that materializes, the pair is headed higher. On the other hand, a break of the 50 EMA would make 1.1945 the target once again.

Fundamental Outlook

The most notable release today will be the US Producer Price Index, which shows changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and services. The indicator has inflationary implications because a higher producer price often leads to a higher consumer price. The release is scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 0.2% (previous 0.4%); numbers above forecast usually strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

After what appeared to be a clean break of 1.3500, the pair rallied on the back of US Dollar weakness generated by the China news mentioned above. However, resistance couldn’t be surpassed and the pair remained in a range.




Technical Outlook

As long as the pair remains between 1.3500 support and 1.3600 resistance, we consider it in a ranging phase, without clear direction. The oscillators are lacking momentum and the 50 EMA is starting to turn flat, supporting the view of a ranging market. A potential break of 1.3550 will take price to the top of the range (1.3600) and on the other hand, a bounce would make 1.3500 the target for the day.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important economic releases for today, so the technical aspect and the US PPI will take center stage.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR RECOVERS THEN DIPS AGAIN. INFLATION DATA AND RETAIL SALES IN THE LIMELIGHT

EUR/USD

Forex News: The ECB revealed yesterday that some changes to the interest rate or QE program might be coming in early 2018 and this was the reason for the strong climb, which was further fuelled by a disappointing U.S. Producer Price Index.



Technical Outlook

The pair rallied after a dip into 1.1945 support and the strong move seen during yesterday’s trading session broke the resistance at 1.2000 with authority. This move will probably extend into the key resistance at 1.2092 (last year’s high) and the probability of another drop below 1.2000 is slim, at least for the moment. The US data released today will surely have a strong impact on the US Dollar and thus on the pair’s direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Consumer Price Index will be released today at 1:30 pm GMT, showing changes in the price that consumers pay for their purchases. It acts as a main gauge of inflation and usually has a positive effect on the greenback if it posts numbers above forecast, which for today is 0.1%.

At the same time the US Dollar will be affected by the US Retail Sales release, which shows changes in the total value of sales made through retail outlets. It is an important gauge of consumer spending and higher numbers than the expected 0.5% usually strengthens the greenback.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar gave back all of the previous gains yesterday on the back of a disappointing PPI reading and the pair posted a bullish day, breaking above the 50 period EMA.




Technical Outlook

The latest momentum is clearly bullish based on the US Dollar weakness seen yesterday but the pair is facing a pretty strong resistance at 1.3550. If this barrier will be broken, we expect to see a push into the next key level at 1.3600. Possible moves lower should find good support at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but as long as price remains above it, our bias is bullish, although a clear trend is not yet established.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has another slow fundamental day ahead but the pair will be fuelled by the U.S. events mentioned earlier and by the technical side.