外汇分析 | Gdmfx Brokerage | 每日报告

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FOREX NEWS: CHOPPINESS CONTINUES AS THE US DOLLAR IS SHOWING MIXED SIGNALS

EUR/USD

Forex News: Despite better than anticipated US data, the US Dollar remained in the negative territory and the pair climbed after a spike below the 50 period EMA and below 1.1775 support.

Technical Outlook

Price has reached again the important resistance zone between 1.1840 and 1.1875 but the Stochastic has entered overbought and the Relative Strength Index is approaching that territory. This is usually an early signal that the pair may be rebounding lower in the near future, and we expect that bounce to happen around 1.1875. The bias remains bullish as long as the pair is trading above the 50 period EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the U.S. Existing Home Sales are released, showing the annualized number of houses sold during the last month. The forecast is 5.30 Million but the impact is usually low-to-medium, with higher numbers strengthening the greenback.

At 11:30 pm GMT, Fed Chair Yellen will deliver a speech named "Monetary Policy Since the Financial Crisis". Caution is always recommended when heads of central banks speak but the late hour will probably diminish the impact on the market.


GBP/USD

The British Retail Sales disappointed yesterday and this generated a sharp drop but soon after, the pair reversed and erased all the losses. Overall price action remained choppy and without clear direction.

Technical Outlook

The pair is still ranging and cannot move above the 50 period EMA or below 1.3160. As long as it remains between these barriers and is showing choppy movement, our bias is neutral but a breakout will probably generate an extended move in that direction. The oscillators lack strong momentum but we can notice a candle with a very long lower wick, which is a clear sign of rejection at support.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic data releases for today so the technical aspect will take center stage.

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FOREX NEWS: A LACKLUSTRE ECONOMIC SCENE TRIGGERS CHOPPY MOVEMENT

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday’s price action was bearish due to increased demand for the US Dollar. The pair broke the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but stopped at 1.1775 support.

Technical Outlook

The pair is in a range-bound market, without a clear bias. This is visible on a Daily chart as well as a 4-hour chart and it means there’s an increased chance of a bounce up from the current support (1.1775) or from 1.1735 if price gets there. The 50 EMA is almost flat, so it won’t offer a strong resistance but as long as price is trading below it, the bias is slightly bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The pair will not be affected today by any economic data, so the technical aspect will decide price direction.


GBP/USD

The Pound erased earlier losses Friday when British Prime Minister May encouraged efforts between UK and EU officials to reach common ground in Brexit negotiations. The pair bounced at support but stopped at the 50 period EMA.

Technical Outlook

The bullish momentum started by Prime Minister May’s speech slowed down by the end of Friday’s trading session and it looks like the pair is having trouble breaking the 50 EMA. If this type of resistance is not broken early in today’s session, we will most likely see a drop lower, through 1.3160 and closer to 1.3100. On the other hand, a break will take the pair into 1.3250 but we don’t expect a move above that level unless surprising news comes out.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the other two currencies, the Pound will not be affected today by major economic releases, so the technical aspect will take center stage.

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FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT HOLDS, PAIRS STILL IN RANGE-MODE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The two currencies weren’t affected by economic releases yesterday but the pair descended below 1.1775 and touched the next support at 1.1735. The session was bearish but volatility was relatively dim.

Technical Outlook

The pair remained below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and broke 1.1775 support but now is showing rejection at 1.1735. This means that we will probably see a re-test of 1.1775 and possibly another encounter with the 50 period EMA but if price will show rejection in that area, then we will most likely see a drop through 1.1735 and into 1.1700.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro will take center stage today, with the release of Eurozone’s Manufacturing and Services PMIs. These are surveys of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing and Services sectors that act as leading indicators of economic health but the impact is often limited. However, higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro. Both indicators are scheduled for release at 8:00 am GMT and the expected readings are 57.9 for the Manufacturing PMI and 55.7 for the Services PMI.


GBP/USD

After reaching the 50 period EMA the pair dropped into support but then the jumped on comments made by British Prime Minister May. However, most of the climb was erased soon after and overall price action remained choppy yesterday.

Technical Outlook

Price is trapped between the 50 EMA and the support at 1.3160, and is showing choppy behaviour. Today we will most likely see a breakout that will decide the next direction but until that happens, the picture is blurry. A move above the 50 EMA will make 1.3250 the next destination, while a break of 1.3160 will take the pair into 1.3100. As long as the pair is trading below the 50 EMA our bias is slightly bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by economic data today so the technical aspect will decide the pair’s direction.

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FOREX NEWS: POUND SLIPS LOWER AHEAD OF BRITISH GDP. NEXT SUPPORT TARGETED?

EUR/USD

Forex News: Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI showed a value above expectation but the Services PMI disappointed so economic data was mixed yesterday and didn’t have a strong impact on the currency. Overall the pair remained in a range, with a slight bullish bias.

Technical Outlook

Price is approaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and is testing the resistance at 1.1775. If this resistance zone will reject price lower, we expect to see a break of 1.1735 and a move into 1.1700. Lately, price action has been choppy and confined in a tight range, and this is usually a sign that the pair is preparing for a strong move.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Durable Goods Orders come out, showing changes in the total value of orders placed for goods with a life expectancy of at least three years. A higher value suggests increased economic activity and usually strengthens the greenback but to a limited extent. The forecast is a change of 1.1%, while the previous was 2.0%.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the Pound slipped below the support at 1.3160 after another failed attempt to move above the 50 EMA. It looks like the pair is picking up speed and is aiming for the next support.

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.3160 makes 1.3100 the next target but it must be noted that the pair is not in a strong trend although momentum currently belongs to the bears. The lack of a clear trend means that if price reaches support (1.3100 – 1.3090) and the Relative Strength Index becomes oversold, we may see a bounce higher. However, the bulls failed twice to break the 50 EMA during the recent period and the pair broke support, so the bias is clearly bearish at least for the short term.

Fundamental Outlook

The Preliminary version of the British Gross Domestic Product will be today’s main event for the Pound. The release is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and the expected value is 0.3%. Since the GDP is the main gauge of overall economic performance and the Preliminary version is the most important, we expect to see Pound strength if higher values are posted, and weakness otherwise.

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FOREX NEWS: BIG DAY FOR THE EURO: ECB INTEREST RATE AND DRAGHI’S PRESS CONFERENCE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The bulls dominated yesterday’s session although the U.S. Durable Goods Orders showed a value above expectations. The pair climbed above immediate resistance and above the 50 period EMA.

Technical Outlook

The level at 1.1775 and the 50 period EMA created a confluence zone of resistance and the break seen yesterday shows that the Euro is winning the short term battle with the US Dollar. A lot will depend today on the ECB interest rate announcement and Mario Draghi’s press conference that follows soon after, but strictly from a technical standpoint, we expect to see a move into 1.1840.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is Euro’s turn to take center stage as the European Central Bank will announce their interest rate at 11:45 am GMT and ECB President Draghi will hold his usual press conference at 12:30 pm GMT. The current rate is 0.00% and no change is expected but the press conference is usually the main market mover.

During the conference, Mario Draghi will talk about the rate decision and then will answer journalists’ questions; this second part of the session usually generates strong volatility but the direction will be decided by his answers and attitude. Caution is advised.


GBP/USD

The Pound strengthened and took the pair more than 150 pips higher yesterday, negating all the losses incurred a day before and extending gains. Most of the move was due to a better than expected British Preliminary GDP but also upbeat comments made by British politicians.

Technical Outlook

The Pound is fuelled by a positive economic sentiment and by hawkish comments made by politicians but the pair is currently struggling to break the key resistance at 1.3250. Also, strong and fast moves in one direction are usually followed by a retracement so we expect to see some sort of pullback before 1.3250 can be broken but the bias is bullish as long as the pair remains above the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by economic data today but potential comments made by UK politicians will have a direct impact on the currency.

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FOREX NEWS: U.S. ADVANCE GDP: ENDING THE WEEK WITH A BANG?

EUR/USD

Forex News: After coming very close to the resistance at 1.1840, the pair dropped more than 100 pips due to dovish comments made by ECB President Mario Draghi. The ECB maintained the interest rate unchanged, as expected.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s move took the pair below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and broke two support levels, showing that short term control belongs to the sellers. Although the latest move was strongly bearish, the pair is still considered in a range from a longer term perspective. The first place where a bounce higher can happen is the support at 1.1700, followed by 1.1670 but the chances of a climb will increase once the Relative Strength Index enters oversold.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the Advance version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product will be released, showing annualized changes in the total value of goods and services generated by the economy. This is the main gauge of an economy’s performance and the Advance version is the first in a series of three, thus it tends to have the strongest impact. The expected change is 2.5% and higher number are beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair retraced some of the gains made a day before and descended again into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, partly due to recovery signs shown by the US Dollar.

Technical Outlook

Lately we’ve seen increased volatility but the pair is still inside a range, without a clear bias. For today we expect to see a move into 1.3160, where action will probably stall while market participants decide the next move. An important role will be played by the U.S. Advance GDP but as long as price is trading below the 50 Exponential Moving Average, the technical bias is slightly bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic data releases so all eyes will be on the US Dollar for the GDP numbers.

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FOREX NEWS: OVERSOLD LEVELS WARN OF POTENTIAL PULLBACKS. GERMAN CPI IN THE SPOTLIGHT

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday’s trading session belonged to the bears and the pair continued on a downward path. The U.S. Advance GDP posted a value above expectations (actual 3.0%, forecast 2.6%) and this contributed to the drop.

Technical Outlook

The pair broke out of the range that it was in and the bias is clearly bearish but strong moves usually retrace after the initial momentum fades. Also, the Relative Strength Index is oversold and moving up and all this means that we will probably see a bounce above 1.1610. Once this retracement completes, we expect the bears to step in again, taking price at least into 1.1575.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Preliminary Consumer Price Index will be today’s main event, showing changes in the price that Germans pay for the goods and services they purchase. This is the main gauge of inflation and the German economy accounts for a major part of the entire Eurozone economy, so we can expect a hefty impact on the currency, with higher numbers strengthening it. The forecast is 0.1% and the time of release is 1:00 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar was boosted Friday by the better than expected U.S. Gross Domestic Product and the pair continued lower, breaching support. Later in the day we saw a bounce up, generated in part by profit taking.

Technical Outlook

Although the latest momentum is bearish, the pair is not in a downtrend and the support at 1.3100 is not broken. This suggests that price will probably continue upwards until 1.3160 is reached and possibly into the 50 period EMA but as long as these two resistances remain intact, our bias is bearish, anticipating a break of 1.3100.

Fundamental Outlook

The Net Lending to Individuals will be released today at 9:30 am GMT, and expected to show a reading of 5.5 Billion. The report shows changes in the total value of credit issued to individuals and has a positive impact on the Pound if it posts a higher than expected reading; however, the impact is usually low-to-medium.

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FOREX NEWS: PAIRS ON THE RISE, OVERALL BIAS STILL NEGATIVE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro pushed the pair above immediate resistance yesterday, although the German CPI came out slightly below expectations. However, the move was mostly technical and was anticipated due to the oversold condition of the pair.

Technical Outlook

Even if yesterday the pair moved upwards, the strength still favours the bears and we expect to see a continuation of the move seen the other week. If price continues higher, the first resistance will be encountered at 1.1670 but the extent of the climb should be limited and there’s a great probability for price to fall through 1.1610 – 1.1600 and into 1.1575.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 10:00 am GMT we take a look at Eurozone inflation with the release of the European Consumer Price Index but we don’t expect a huge impact mostly because the German CPI, which accounts for a big part of overall inflation, was already released yesterday. However, higher numbers than the forecast 1.5% will probably strengthen the single currency.

At 2:00 pm GMT the US Dollar will be affected by the Consumer Confidence, which is a survey that gauges consumers’ opinions regarding the overall economic situation. Higher numbers than the forecast 121.1 show optimism and usually strengthen the US Dollar but to a limited extent.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s session was controlled by the bulls, who managed to take the pair above the resistance at 1.3160 and above the 50 period EMA. The move was mostly technical and was predicted by the failed break of 1.3100.

Technical Outlook

As mentioned before, the pair is not in a downtrend and all moves in one direction are reversed, which is a characteristic of a ranging market. If the buyers can maintain the pair above the 50 period EMA, we will probably see a move into 1.3280 resistance but a quick move below the EMA and below 1.3160 would show that the balance of power is tilting towards the short side, so we will probably see another attempt to break 1.3100.

Fundamental Outlook

There’s nothing major on the Pound’s calendar for today, so the pair’s direction will be decided by the U.S. data and the technical aspect.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR IN THE LIMELIGHT: FOMC RATE STATEMENT AND FIRST LOOK AT EMPLOYMENT DATA

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair remained relatively quiet for the most part of yesterday’s trading session and no special developments took place. The U.S. Consumer Confidence survey posted a value above expectations but the impact was low.

Technical Outlook

The move up seen this week is still considered a normal retracement after a strong drop that took the Relative Strength Index into oversold territory. Our bias remains bearish as long as the pair is still trading below the 50 period Exponential moving Average but we don’t exclude a climb into 1.1670; however, the pair’s direction will be heavily affected by the fundamental side today.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look at U.S. employment data with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is a report that tries to mimic the more important Non-Farm Payrolls released by the Government Friday. The forecast is 191K and usually a higher change has a positive impact on the US Dollar.

Later in the day, at 6:00 pm GMT the FOMC will issue their Rate Statement, containing the rate decision and the reasons that determined it. No rate change is expected for today but if we will get any hints about the timing of the next hike, the US Dollar will probably have a strong reaction, so caution is advised.


GBP/USD

The pair continued higher yesterday, mostly backed by increased demand for the Pound due to rate hike expectations. Price remained above the 50 period EMA and pushed towards the resistance at 1.3280.

Technical Outlook

It’s very likely to see a touch of 1.3280 resistance, based on the positive sentiment that’s currently surrounding the Pound. However, if the pair reaches that level, probably the Relative Strength Index will become overbought or will touch its 70 level and this will increase the chances of a bounce lower. Overall the pair is still in a range and today we have important data for both currencies, so the technical side will be somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI will be released today at 9:30 am GMT, showing the opinions of about 600 purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector about overall economic conditions in said sector. A higher number than the expected 55.9 usually strengthens the Pound, taking the pair higher and the opposite is true for a lower number.