外汇分析 | Gdmfx Brokerage | 每日报告

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: PULLBACKS REACH KEY SUPPORT. ANOTHER RALLY IN THE MAKING?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The sellers were in control for the most part of yesterday’s trading session, mostly due to technical reasons because the fundamental scene was calm and without any notable releases.




Technical Outlook

Price is currently retracing from highs and approaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. As long as it remains above the 50 EMA, the move is considered a normal pullback after an extended period of upside movement but a break of the mentioned support will possibly trigger a stronger move south. However, the uptrend is still in place as long as 1.2200 remains support.

Fundamental Outlook

The first event of the day will be the release of the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation and because the German economy is one of the most important in the Eurozone, the impact of the CPI is usually high. The time of release is 1:00 pm GMT, the expected change is -0.5% (previous 0.6%) and higher values usually strengthen the Euro.

At 3:00 pm GMT the US Consumer Confidence survey will come out, showing the opinions of about 5,000 households about overall economic conditions in the United States. A higher than anticipated value suggests that consumer spending will increase in the near future and this in turn strengthens the US Dollar. The forecast is 123.2 but the impact is usually medium, not high.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar showed signs of recovery yesterday, so the session belonged mostly to the sellers, who managed to break the previous support at 1.4100.




Technical Outlook

The break of 1.4100 is an important victory for the bears but now they are facing a more important support represented by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. A break of this barrier will take the pair into 1.4000, which is a key level, both from a technical standpoint, as well as psychological. Our outlook remains bearish for the short term but the pair is still in a clear and strong uptrend.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 3:30 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee. This speech has the potential to move the Pound strongly, so we recommend caution if trading at the time.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: BUYERS STEP BACK IN, AHEAD OF KEY EUROZONE INFLATION DATA AND FED INTEREST RATE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the bulls came back into the market, taking the pair above 1.2400 after a bounce at the 50 EMA. The US Consumer Confidence survey came out above expectations but the US Dollar remained mostly unaffected.



Technical Outlook

The pair has already bounced twice at the 50 period EMA and broke 1.2400 to the upside. These are clear bullish signs that suggest we will see higher prices in the near future. The first notable zone of interest is located around the previous top at 1.2540 but it’s also likely to see ranging price movement until later in the afternoon when the FOMC Statement is released.

Fundamental Outlook

We have an important day ahead for both the Euro and the US Dollar: at 10:00 am GMT the European Flash Estimate Consumer Price Index comes out, showing the state of inflation across the Eurozone. The indicator has a strong impact on the currency, with higher numbers strengthening it; today’s forecast is a change of 1.3% compared to the previous 1.4%.

Later in the day, at 7:00 pm GMT the Fed will release the FOMC Statement, which contains the outcome of the rate vote (no change expected from the current <1.50%) but also details about the reasons that determined the vote. If we will get some hints about future rate increases, the US Dollar will likely move strongly, otherwise the impact will be limited.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the bearish retracement found support at the key 1.4000 level and bounced higher for more than 100 pips. The testimony of BOE Governor Carney went mostly unnoticed.




Technical Outlook

The pair is capped by a bearish trend line seen on the chart above and at the time of writing, this line is not broken. If price returns below the line and below 1.4100, we will most likely see another touch of the 50 period EMA and possibly 1.4000. A successful break of the trend line will make 1.4200 the first target of the day but a lot will depend on the US data.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar doesn’t hold any important releases for the Pound today so the US events will be the main market driver.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: FED SEES ‘GRADUAL INCREASES’, US DOLLAR RESPONDS POSITIVELY

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair traded above 1.2400 for most of yesterday’s trading session but the US Dollar showed some signs of strength at the time of the FOMC release. The Fed kept the rate unchanged but mentioned that gradual increases will be performed as the economy requests it.




Technical Outlook

The bias remains bullish as long as price is above the 50 period but it is now clear that the upside momentum is fading. This means that we will probably see a drop through the 50 EMA and closer to the support around 1.2300 – 1.2280. A bounce at the current support (1.2400) would invalidate such a scenario and will make 1.2540 the next destination.

Fundamental Outlook

Action slows down a bit today and the US Manufacturing PMI will be the only notable release. Scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT, this survey shows the opinions of purchasing managers about economic and business conditions in the Manufacturing sector. It acts as an indicator of optimism that has a medium impact on the currency; higher numbers than the forecast 58.7 are beneficial for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

Price action was choppy throughout yesterday’s trading session but with a bullish bias and the pair broke the bearish trend line, moving into the target at 1.4200 before dropping lower.




Technical Outlook

The move lower generated by the FOMC Statement is likely to extend into the support at 1.4100 and possibly into the 50 period EMA. However, we don’t expect a break of these two barriers unless surprises occur. The overall trend is clearly bullish, so we favor the long side after a bounce at one of the mentioned support barriers.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the US Dollar, the Pound will be affected today by manufacturing data in the form of the Purchasing Managers’ Index. The survey is scheduled for release at 9:30 am GMT and the expected reading is 56.5; the impact is medium-to-low and higher numbers strengthen the currency.