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FOREX NEWS: POLITICAL TURMOIL IN THE U.S. HINDERS THE DOLLAR’S RECOVERY

EUR/USD

Forex News: U.S. politics took center stage Friday as Michael Flynn, Trump’s ex-national security adviser pleaded guilty of lying to the FBI regarding his communication with the Russian ambassador. The news weakened the US Dollar and reversed the pair from an earlier drop.

Technical Outlook

Price was moving below 1.1875 support before the Flynn news hit but most of the pair’s losses were erased and now we can clearly see a bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The US Dollar will likely suffer from the aftermath of Friday’s developments, so we expect the pair to remain above 1.1875 and possibly move closer to 1.1945.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable release today will be the U.S. Factory Orders, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to post a reading of -0.3% from the previous 1.4%. The indicator shows changes in the total value of orders placed with manufacturers and has a medium to low impact on the greenback. Higher than anticipated values strengthen the US Dollar and are indicative of rising production (factories will increase activity to fill the orders).



GBP/USD

Friday’s trading session was controlled by the bears although the US Dollar was affected by political turmoil. The pair is now testing the previous resistance, which may turn into support.

Technical Outlook

The bulls ran out of steam at 1.3550, where the sellers took over and drove the pair all the way down to 1.3450. The way price behaves at this level will determine the day’s direction: if 1.3450 turns into support, thus rejecting the pair higher, then we will most likely see a touch of 1.3500. If the level is broken, the pair will start moving towards the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. However, we expect a rather slow trading session unless surprises happen.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI will be released, showing the opinions of about 170 purchasing managers about business conditions in the construction sector. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health and higher numbers than the forecast 51.2 usually strengthen the Pound but the impact is low if the actual number matches expectations.

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FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT TARGETED AS THE US DOLLAR IS SHOWING MINOR RECOVERY SIGNS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar seems to have recovered from Friday’s weakness, partly aided by better than expected Factory Orders. Also, the U.S. Senate passed the tax-reform bill and this brought a breath of fresh air to the battered greenback.

Technical Outlook

The pair bounced yesterday at 1.1875 (which is now resistance once again) and is approaching 1.1825 support. The oscillators are showing mild bearish momentum but the pair is again trapped between 1.1825 and 1.1875 so the overall picture is blurry and we don’t expect major developments until one of the two levels is broken. As long as price is trading below the 50 period EMA and below 1.1875, our bias is slightly bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s a pretty slow day for the Euro, without any major news releases and on the US Dollar side the Non-Manufacturing PMI will be the only notable announcement. The survey gauges the opinions of purchasing managers about business conditions, excluding the Manufacturing sector and has a medium impact on the US Dollar. The time of release is 3:00 pm GMT, the expected number is 59.2 and usually, values above forecast boost the Dollar.



GBP/USD

The Pound benefited from fresh optimism surrounding Brexit negotiations and pushed higher during yesterday’s session but failed to reach the resistance at 1.3550 before dropping lower.

Technical Outlook

The bulls ran out of steam before reaching the resistance located at 1.3550 and now the pair is showing rejection and increased bearish pressure. For today we expect to see a break of 1.3450 and a move into 1.3410, where the pair will also bump into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If this support zone can be surpassed, we will probably see an extended move to the downside, otherwise the pair is likely to resume the uptrend.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Services PMI comes out, showing the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector about business conditions in said sector. The survey doesn’t have a huge impact on the Pound but numbers above forecast (55.2) usually strengthen the Pound.

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FOREX NEWS: U.S. JOBS IN THE SPOTLIGHT: ADP NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair tried again to break 1.1875 but bounced lower and reached the bottom of the channel. A worse than expected U.S. Services PMI then weakened the US Dollar, creating a brief climb.

Technical Outlook

Although the greenback was temporarily weakened by a disappointing PMI, the pair is still trying to break support and to move out of the horizontal channel created by 1.1825 and 1.1875. Given that price bounced several times at 1.1875 and is now showing some bearish momentum, we expect to see a break of 1.1825 followed by a stronger move south.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 1:15 pm GMT we take a first look at U.S. jobs with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. This report shows changes in the total number of employed people in the U.S. excluding the farming sector and Government but has a lower impact than the Non-Farm Payrolls released Friday. However, numbers above the forecast 191K usually strengthen the US Dollar.



GBP/USD

The Sterling was weakened yesterday by a worse than expected reading for the Services PMI but later in the afternoon the U.S. Services PMI disappointed as well, so the US Dollar gave back most of the early gains, creating a choppy session.

Technical Outlook

The failed break of the confluence zone created by 1.3410 support and the 50 period EMA shows that the bulls are trying to regain control of the pair and this makes us anticipate a touch of 1.3450 or even a small climb above it. However, the pair is showing bearish pressure because it failed to break 1.3550 or to even reach it a second time and this suggests that a full candle close below the 50 EMA will mark the beginning of a longer period of downside movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major economic releases today, so the technical aspect and the U.S. jobs data will be the main price drivers.

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FOREX NEWS: BEARS BREAK SUPPORT. THE US DOLLAR STARTS TO REGAIN ITS MOMENTUM

EUR/USD

Forex News: The ADP Non-Farm Employment report came very close to the anticipated value, so the release did not have a major impact. However, the US Dollar continued to drag the pair lower, generating a bearish session with only brief moments of upside movement.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday the pair broke 1.1825 decisively and is now finally out of the horizontal channel that confined it (1.1875 – 1.1825). This means that the bears are in control of short term price action and possibly that we will see a move closer to 1.1735. Until price gets there, we will surely see retracements to the upside but as long as price is trading below 1.1825, our view is bearish.


Fundamental Outlook

Today is a slow day for both currencies and the only notable event will be a press conference held by ECB President Mario Draghi. The conference will be presented by the Bank for International Settlements and held at the European Central Bank, in Frankfurt. The impact is hard to anticipate but caution is recommended.



GBP/USD
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Bearish action continued yesterday and the pair reached the next support. Most of this behavior was due to Pound weakness generated by Brexit concerns.

Technical Outlook

The break of the confluence zone created by 1.3410 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average can be considered a big victory for the bears, and we expect to see an extended move lower, towards 1.3320. The current level (1.3360) is a minor support but it rejected price higher yesterday, so we may see a push into 1.3410 and the 50 EMA but we don’t expect that resistance zone to be broken.


Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a slow economic day ahead, as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major data releases.

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FOREX NEWS: BUCKLE UP FOR THE FINAL NFP OF THE YEAR

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair continued on a downward path yesterday but price action was mostly choppy due to the lack of economic releases. The speech of ECB President Draghi did not have a strong impact on the single currency.

Technical Outlook

Bearish momentum is starting to fade as we see more and more candles with long wicks and also, the pair hasn’t made any significant advances yesterday. This suggests that a move up will soon follow but as long as the pair is trading below 1.1825 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the bias is negative. Today the US jobs data will have a strong impact on the pair’s direction, so the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

There’s nothing important on the calendar for the Euro but the US Dollar will be heavily affected by the most important US jobs report: the Non-Farm Employment Change (aka Non-Farm Payrolls). The report shows changes in the total number of employed people, excluding the farming sector and is a leading indicator of consumer spending. The time of release is 1:30 pm GMT, the expected reading is 198K (previous 261K) and higher numbers are beneficial for the US Dollar.



GBP/USD

The pair dropped into the support at 1.3320 early in yesterday’s trading session but the Pound recovered the losses after an EU official mentioned that progress has been made on Brexit negotiations.

Technical Outlook

The pair’s movement remains very dependent on any Brexit news that come out without warning but from a technical perspective, as long as price is not clearly above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the bias remains mostly bearish. Of course the US Dollar will be affected today by major employment data, so the technical side will be overshadowed by the release.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production is today’s only notable indicator for the Pound. The report shows changes in the total value of goods produced by manufacturers and usually has a medium impact on the currency, with higher numbers strengthening it. The time of release is 9:30 am GMT and the expected change is 0.1%.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TESTS SUPPORT, BEARS BUILD UP STEAM FOR ANOTHER PUSH LOWER

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Non-Farm Payrolls released Friday showed a better than expected reading but the previous value was revised lower and this generated a mixed reaction and a perfect bounce at support.

Technical Outlook

The target at 1.1735 was touched Friday and price reacted to it by bouncing higher but the medium term bias remains bearish as long as the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. After the current bullish retracement is complete, we expect to see a break of 1.1735 and a consequent move into 1.1700 but today will most likely be a slow day, with price trading in a relatively tight range.

Fundamental Outlook

The JOLTS Job Openings will be today’s only release worth mentioning, although this indicator has a negligible impact most of the time. It shows the monthly number of job openings, excluding the farming sector and usually strengthens the US Dollar if the actual value surpasses estimates. The time of release is 3:00 pm GMT and the forecast is 6.03 Million.



GBP/USD

Even before the U.S. jobs data came out Friday, price started to drop and the Non-Farm Payrolls added more fuel to the US Dollar, taking the pair into support. A minor bullish move was seen late in the afternoon but the session was overall bearish.

Technical Outlook

The bulls failed to take the pair above the resistance at 1.3500 and this is another blow to the medium term uptrend. The picture is mixed but the bounce at 1.3360 will most likely trigger a climb above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.3410. However, if this resistance zone holds and rejects price, we will probably see a break of 1.3360.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a lacklustre day ahead, without any notable release. This may translate into a slow and ranging trading session.

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FOREX NEWS: POUND TAKES CENTER STAGE FOR THE BRITISH CPI RELEASE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the economic scene was calm and without any major data releases; however, the pair continued higher at a relatively slow pace and touched the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Technical Outlook

The last few bullish candles are showing wicks in both their upper and lower parts, which may suggest that the retracement started at 1.1735 is coming to an end. If the 50 period EMA is surpassed, we expect to see a move into 1.1825 but at the moment it seems like the pair is lacking the strength to break that mark. A bounce lower at the 50 EMA will make 1.1735 the new target.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released today at 10:00 am GMT, showing the opinions of about 300 German analysts and investors regarding a 6-month outlook for the German economy. This is an indicator of economic health and optimism, thus higher numbers than the anticipated 17.9 can strengthen the Euro but the impact is usually medium.

Later in the day, at 1:30 pm GMT the US Producer Price Index will come out, showing changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and services. The forecast is a change of 0.4% and higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar because the indicator has inflationary implications.



GBP/USD

The pair had a choppy trading session yesterday, amid a lacklustre economic environment. Neither side was in clear control but an early climb was quickly reversed.

Technical Outlook

The bulls tried yesterday to move price above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and 1.3410 resistance but the attempt resulted in a long rejection candle and a drop into the support at 1.3360. The pair’s direction today will be heavily influenced by the British inflation data, so the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary but if the pair stays below the 50 EMA, we expect to see a drop into 1.3320.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Consumer Price Index will be released, showing changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase. This is the main gauge of inflation, so higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound. The expected reading is 3.0%, same as previous.

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FOREX NEWS: BUCKLE UP FOR THE FINAL FED RATE ANNOUNCEMENT OF 2017

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Producer Price Index released yesterday matched analysts’ expectations of 0.4%, so the release didn’t generate strong movement. However, the session was controlled in most part by the bears and the pair touched support.

Technical Outlook


The support at 1.1735 rejected price several times in the past and acted as a strong barrier, so a break would mean a big victory for the bears and would take the pair into 1.1700 in the very near future. Our outlook is bearish, anticipating such a move but also, we expect a retracement if price hits 1.1700 mark. The US Dollar will be affected by the Fed rate announcement, so we may see choppy price action until the release.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event of the day will be the Fed rate announcement scheduled at 7:00 pm GMT and followed shortly after (7:30 pm GMT) by Fed Chair Yellen’s press conference. The Fed is expected to hike the rate from the current <1.25% to <1.50% and if this is the case, the US Dollar will likely see a boost of volatility, so caution is expected.

Earlier in the day, at 1:30 pm GMT the U.S. Consumer Price Index will be released and since this is one of the main gauges of inflation, higher numbers than the forecast 0.4% will likely strengthen the greenback.



GBP/USD

Yesterday the British CPI posted a value of 3.1%, above the expectations of 3.0% and this initially created Pound strength but immediately after, the US Dollar took over and erased all Pound gains, creating a choppy session.

Technical Outlook

After a spike that took price briefly above 1.3360, the pair descended and is now testing 1.3320 support on the back of mild US Dollar strength. It must be noted that the candles have long wicks in their upper part, which is a sign of rejection at resistance and increased bearish pressure, so we expect to see a break of the current support (1.3320) and a move into 1.3280 where a pullback may occur.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Average Earnings Index will be released today at 9:30 am GMT, showing changes in the price paid by employers for labour. The expected change is 2.5% (previous 2.2%) and higher numbers are beneficial for the Pound. The pair will also be affected by the Fed announcement later in the day.

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FOREX NEWS: FED RATE ANNOUNCEMENT IS DONE. ECB AND BOE NEXT!
  

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Fed hiked the interest rate to <1.50% as it was widely anticipated but the Rate Statement didn’t show a hawkish stance and this allowed the pair to climb. Also, Fed Chair Yellen mentioned uncertainty about inflation in her press conference and this further weakened the US Dollar.

Technical Outlook

The pair bounced at 1.1735 support and broke the 50 period Exponential Moving Average with authority but stopped at 1.1825 at the time of writing. We expect this resistance level to be broken and price to head into 1.1875 in the near future. If the pair bounces lower from the current level but still remains above the 50 EMA, the outlook remains bullish, anticipating a move into the next resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECB will announce today at 12:45 pm GMT the interest rate, which is not expected to change from the current 0.00% but the release will most likely create increased volatility. Later at 1:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold his usual press conference where he will read a prepared statement and then will answer journalists’ questions. This second part of the press conference is known to be a strong market mover, so caution is recommended because the impact cannot be anticipated.

At the same time (1:30 pm GMT) the U.S. Retail Sales are released, showing changes in the total value of sales made through retail outlets. The impact is usually high and numbers above the forecast 0.6% strengthen the US Dollar.



GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro, the Pound capitalized on the Fed rate announcement yesterday and the pair moved to the upside, surpassing the 50 period EMA and making the short-to-medium term outlook bullish.

Technical Outlook

Downside movement stalled around 1.3320 and price jumped into 1.3410 after the Fed rate announcement and press conference. The bullish momentum is likely to take the pair above the current resistance and closer to 1.3450 – 1.3500. A retracement will follow if the pair reaches these levels but as long as price is trading above the 50 EMA, our bias is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The first release of the day will be the British Retail Sales, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a change of 0.4%. The indicator usually boosts the Pound if it posts readings above forecast and the opposite is true for values below expectations.

At 12:00 pm GMT the Bank of England will announce the interest rate but since no change is anticipated for quite a long while, we expect the event to create only moderate volatility unless surprises happen.

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FOREX NEWS: EURO SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKNESS AFTER ECB PRESSER. BEARISH PRESSURE INCREASES
  

EUR/USD

Forex News: The ECB left the interest rate unchanged as expected and the Euro had a mixed reaction, first spiking higher and then retracing into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The US Dollar on the other hand, was boosted by better than expected Retail Sales and this contributed to the drop.

Technical Outlook

The pair is now showing a candle with a very long upper wick, which is a clear sign of rejection; however, the US Dollar is still lacking strong momentum and the pair is testing the 50 period EMA, so we are dealing with a ‘bounce or break’ scenario. If the Moving Average will be broken, the pair may try to break 1.1735 again and otherwise, we expect to see a move above 1.1825 and closer to 1.1875. Today we don’t have major announcements, so we may see a ranging trading session.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Industrial Production will be the most notable release of the say, scheduled at 2:15 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 0.3%, lower than the previous 0.9%. The report tracks changes in the total value of goods produced by factories and has a positive impact on the greenback if it posts a higher than expected value.



GBP/USD

The Pound was boosted in the early part of yesterday’s trading session by upbeat British Retail Sales but it had a muted reaction to the BOE decision to maintain rates unchanged, as expected. Later in the session the US Dollar recovered some of the early losses and took the pair into support.

Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the bounce at 1.3450 can be considered a simple retracement so the outlook remains bullish. Today’s price action will likely take place between the 50 EMA and 1.3450 and a break of one of these boundaries will probably trigger a stronger move in that direction. However, the economic calendar is light today and this could translate into a slow session.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today so the technical aspect will decide the pair’s direction.