外汇分析 | Gdmfx Brokerage | 每日报告

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: U.S. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: THE WEEK’S FINAL MARKET MOVER

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s session was characterized by bounces at support and resistance, without a clear bias. The U.S. Producer Price Index missed expectations and this weakened the US Dollar in the afternoon.

Technical Outlook

It looks like the zone between 1.1700 and 1.1713 acts as good support because lately we’ve seen two failed attempts to move bellow it. Also, the pair found solid resistance at 1.1775 and the Moving Average, so the bias is neutral until a clear break of either support or resistance. The U.S. inflation data will play an important role for today’s direction.

Fundamental Outlook

A very important economic indicator is released today at 12:30 pm GMT: the U.S. Consumer Price Index, which is one of the main gauges of inflation and measures changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase.

Today’s forecast is a change of 0.2% compared to the previous 0.0% and usually a higher change strengthens the US Dollar. Keep an eye on the CORE version of the CPI (excludes food and energy from calculation), released at the same time and expected to show a change of 0.2% from the previous 0.1%.


GBP/USD

An initial drop was reversed yesterday by the worse than anticipated American PPI and afterwards, volatility dimmed and price remained close to 1.3000. Neither side was in clear control but now it seems like the pair has found good support at 1.2950.

Technical Outlook

During the last few days the pair has bounced twice at 1.2950 and the Relative Strength Index is hovering near the oversold level. These are signs that the bearish momentum is fading and that the buyers are likely to step in sooner rather than later. If 1.3000 can be clearly broken, we expect a move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but a lot will depend on the value posted by the U.S. Consumer Price Index.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a lacklustre fundamental environment today, without major economic releases, thus the U.S. CPI and the technical aspect will decide the pair’s direction.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: LACKLUSTER ECONOMIC SCENE CALLS FOR RANGING PRICE ACTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday’s price action was controlled by the bulls, mostly because the US Dollar was hit by worse than anticipated Consumer Price Index: actual 0.1%, forecast 0.2%. The CORE version of the indicator also disappointed (actual 0.1%, forecast 0.2%).

Technical Outlook

The US Dollar weakness seen Friday took the pair above 1.1775 resistance and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, making the short term bias bullish. However, today we expect to see a ranging session, capped by 1.1875 and by the 50 EMA, mostly because the economic scene is quiet and Mondays are usually slow days. The last candles also show long wicks in the upper side, which is a sign of rejection and possibly an indication that price will return to retest 1.1775.

Fundamental Outlook

Both the Euro and the US Dollar have an uneventful day today, without important economic releases, so the pair’s direction will be decided by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

After several failed attempts to break the support at 1.2950, Friday the pair started to move north and reached the resistance at 1.3030, mostly fuelled by worse than expected U.S. inflation data.

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2950 rejected price several times so it will play an important role in future price action. Another important level is 1.3030, which acted as resistance Friday and today we will probably see another encounter with it. The way price behaves here will decide the next short term direction: a break of 1.3030 and the 50 period EMA will make 1.3100 the first target, while a bounce will take the pair back towards 1.2950. However, we don’t expect these targets to be reached today, mainly due to the lack of economic indicators.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic releases for today, similar to the rest of Europe and the United States.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: U.S. RETAIL SALES, BRITISH INFLATION: ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR WILD SWINGS

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the control belonged to the bears mostly, and the pair returned to re-test 1.1775. Overall movement was slow, mostly due to a lacklustre economic scene.

Technical Outlook

Price action has created a minor resistance around 1.1840, so if the pair bounces at the current support, that level will become the first target for today. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat, signalling that the pair may be entering a ranging period but the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index show bearish momentum and this suggests that a break of 1.1775 and the 50 EMA will bring the pair down towards 1.1713.

Fundamental Outlook

French and Italian banks will be closed today in observance of Assumption Day, so we can expect a choppy European session. On the US Dollar side we have a very important release: the Retail Sales, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The indicator tracks changes in the total value of sales made through retail outlets and usually has a high impact on the currency because retail sales represent the majority of consumer spending. The anticipated change is 0.4%, while the previous was -0.2%.


GBP/USD

The Dollar showed some strength against the Pound and took the pair towards support after a bounce at 1.3030 resistance. Overall yesterday’s session was bearish but the pair is still inside a range.

Technical Outlook

Lately the pair moves above and below the psychological level at 1.3000 and is trapped inside the horizontal channel created by 1.3030 and 1.2950, so the short term bias doesn’t clearly belong to either side. A break of support will send the pair into 1.2930, followed by 1.2900 but a lot will depend on the US and UK data released throughout the day.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT, British inflation data comes out in the form of the Consumer Price Index. The indicator shows changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase and usually has a high impact because inflation levels are closely watched by the central bank when deciding the next rate hike. Today’s forecast is 2.7% while the previous was 2.6%.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR BOOSTED BY RETAIL SALES. KEY SUPPORT THREATENED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Retail Sales posted a change of 0.6%, better than the anticipated 0.3%, while the CORE version posted a 0.5% change (anticipated 0.3%). This strengthened the US Dollar throughout yesterday’s trading session and the pair broke support.

Technical Outlook

The uptrend showed signs of weakness when it failed to make another higher high and instead printed a lower high at 1.1840. This fact combined with yesterday’s break of 1.1713, suggests that the pair might be entering a bearish phase (not necessarily a downtrend) and makes us anticipate a touch of 1.1650 in the near future. Keep in mind that the last candle on the chart above shows a long wick, which is a sign of rejection and the Relative Strength Index is approaching oversold, so a move to the upside is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT we take a look at the state of Eurozone’s economy with the release of the Flash version of the Gross Domestic Product. This is the second version in a series of three, so the impact is medium, but it shouldn’t be overlooked. The forecast is a change of 0.6% and usually a higher value strengthens the currency, showing a thriving economy.

On the US Dollar side we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes, scheduled at 6:00 pm GMT. The document contains details of the latest FOMC meeting, but also insights into the reasons that determined the latest rate decision. Sometimes the document also contains hints about future rate changes, and that’s when the impact is the highest.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the British inflation numbers missed the market consensus of 2.7%, posting a reading of 2.6%. This fact combined with US Dollar strength generated by the U.S. Retail Sales, triggered a strong drop into key support.

Technical Outlook

After the break of the horizontal channel formed by 1.3030 resistance and 1.2950 support, the pair continued to move strongly south, reaching the key support at 1.2850. We expect to see a bounce/retracement around this area considering that the Relative Strength Index is already oversold and that price travelled a long distance. The bias is bearish but the sellers are facing an important support at 1.2770 if 1.2850 is broken.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Average Earnings Index is released, showing the changes in the price paid by businesses for labor. The indicator has inflationary implications because if businesses pay more, they will probably charge more for their goods and services to cover the cost of labor. The forecast is 1.8% and usually a higher value strengthens the Pound.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR WEAKENS ACROSS THE BOARD AFTER FOMC MINUTES. RESISTANCE STILL STANDS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair dropped below support but price action was irregular and characterized by quick reversals in the first part of the day. The FOMC Minutes didn’t show any major surprises but the US Dollar weakened and the pair climbed into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s climb took the pair into a confluence zone created by the 50 period EMA and 1.1775; this resistance will be tough to break but if the bulls can take price above it, this will show US Dollar weakness and will possibly trigger a move into 1.1840. On the other hand, a bounce from the current zone will show that the move up was just an impulsive market reaction and will make 1.1713 the immediate target, followed by 1.1650.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the Final version of the European Consumer Price Index is released, showing changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase. The CPI is the main gauge of inflation and a higher number usually strengthens the currency but the Final version tends to be the least important. Today’s forecast is a change of 1.3%, same as previous.

Later in the day the U.S. Industrial Production is released, showing changes in the value of output generated by mines, utilities and manufacturers. The impact of the indicator is medium, with higher numbers than the forecast 0.3%, strengthening the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair had a choppy session ahead of the FOMC Minutes release, hovering close to 1.2850 support after a bounce at resistance. The Dollar weakened across the board when the Minutes were released but resistance was not broken.

Technical Outlook

It is clear now that 1.2850 is strong support and this fact combined with the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index and the FOMC Minutes triggered a jump higher. However, this is just noise until a key level is broken (in this case, 1.2900). As long as price remains below the mentioned resistance, our bias is bearish, anticipating a break of 1.2850.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected today by the release of the British Retail Sales, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. The indicator shows changes in the total value of sales made through retail outlets and generally has a high impact. Today’s expected value is 0.2% and numbers above that usually strengthen the currency.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: SELLING PRESSURE INCREASES, US DOLLAR REMAINS IN THE LIMELIGHT

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Dollar bulls stepped in early in yesterday’s trading session and managed to break 1.1700 once again, taking the pair close to 1.1650 support. Later the Euro erased some of the losses and the pair climbed above the previously broken level.

Technical Outlook

After the failed attempt to break 1.1775 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair dropped through 1.1713 - 1.1700 and came close to 1.1650 support. This shows increased bearish pressure but the quick return above the zone creates a mixed picture, where control doesn’t clearly belong to either side. However, our view remains mostly bearish as long as the pair is trading below the 50 EMA and we anticipate a move into 1.1650.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s only notable release is the Preliminary version of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. This is a survey that tries to gauge the opinions of consumers regarding current and future economic conditions; higher numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar because if consumers are confident in economic conditions, they are likely to spend more and this further boosts the economy. The time of release is 2:00 pm GMT, the expected number is 94.0 and the impact is typically medium.


GBP/USD

The British Retail Sales exceeded expectations and this created temporary Pound strength, taking the pair into 1.2900 but the move was quickly reversed and 1.2850 support was touched again.

Technical Outlook

Overall yesterday’s trading session was characterized by bounces at support and resistance. Now price is touching resistance for a second time in a very short period and if this move doesn’t translate into a bullish break, we will probably see a move below the support at 1.2850 and a touch of 1.2815. On the other hand, a move above 1.2900 will probably take the pair close to the 50 EMA but as long as price is trading between support and resistance, the pair is in a range from a short term perspective.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a light day ahead, without any important releases, thus the pair’s direction will be decided by the technical aspect and the U.S. survey mentioned earlier.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: MARKETS IN RANGE-MODE. BREAKOUTS NEEDED TO CONFIRM NEXT DIRECTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday’s price action was choppy, with a slightly bullish bias; resistance was touched but the pair lacked the determination to break it. The U.S. Consumer Sentiment survey came out better than anticipated but this only created a brief US Dollar reaction.

Technical Outlook

Price is drifting between support and resistance without conviction and without a clear bias. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is mostly flat (very slightly angled downwards), thus confirming that the market lacks proper direction. Today we expect mostly a ranging session, but the US Dollar looks weak, affected also by political unrest in the U.S., so a break of 1.1775 may trigger additional upside but to a limited extent. To the downside, 1.1713 – 1.1700 remains a strong support zone, which we don’t expect to be broken today.

Fundamental Outlook

The Dollar and Euro both have a lacklustre economic calendar for today, so the technical aspect will be the deciding factor for the pair’s direction.


GBP/USD

The pair showed some big swings Friday, breaking resistance first, then support, only to finish the week in the middle of the horizontal channel. The U.S. Consumer survey had a positive impact on the greenback but the effect was soon nullified.

Technical Outlook

Price is trapped inside the horizontal channel created by 1.2900 resistance and 1.2850 support. Until we see a clear and strong breakout, the pair will probably show back and forth movement, inside the range. Both oscillators are lacking momentum, thus they are not showing a clear signal, but the 50 EMA is angled down and this tilts the balance slightly towards the bears.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom hasn’t scheduled any economic data release for today and this fact will probably contribute to a slow trading session.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: BREAKOUTS UNDERWAY, BULLS PUSH HIGHER

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro spiked higher yesterday afternoon and the pair moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and broke the resistance at 1.1775. The move was mostly technical because no major economic data was released.

Technical Outlook

The move above 1.1775 resistance marks the end of the consolidation phase that the pair was in and makes the short term outlook bullish. If the pair remains above 1.1775, we expect to see a move that will have 1.1840 as target but it is very likely to see a re-test from above of the recently broken level (price returns to touch the level and then bounces higher). The two oscillators show good upwards momentum, thus increasing the probability of a climb to 1.1840.

Fundamental Outlook

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and will be today’s highlight for the Euro. This survey shows the opinions of about 275 German professional investors and analysts regarding their 6-month outlook for the economy and acts as a leading indicator of optimism. Today’s forecast is 15.3, a drop from the previous 17.5.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s session was mostly bullish and the pair climbed after another perfect touch of 1.2850 support. At the time of writing the horizontal channel created by 1.2850 and 1.2900 is broken so the pair seems to be out of the ranging phase.

Technical Outlook

Price is rapidly approaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, which is an important hurdle and if it can be surpassed, we will most likely see an extended move to the upside. Immediate resistance will be represented by 1.2930, followed by 1.2950 but if price bounces at the 50 EMA is, we will probably see a return inside the horizontal channel and more ranging movement will follow.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Public Sector Net Borrowing is released, showing the difference between spending and income for the government and public corporations. A positive number indicates deficit and a higher number means a bigger deficit, so lower numbers usually strengthen the Pound. Today’s forecast is 0.4 Billion, lower than the previous 6.3 Billion.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: MIXED TRADING SIGNALS AHEAD OF JACKSON HOLE ECONOMIC SYMPOSIUM

EUR/USD

Forex News: European Manufacturing data was mostly positive yesterday and this fact combined with a slightly hawkish Draghi speech, took the pair above resistance once again, creating a bullish session.

Technical Outlook

Lately all moves are reversed and all gains or losses erased. This suggests indecision and shows that the pair is in range mode, so until either side commits to a strong move, we can expect more of this bouncing movement. The most recent momentum is bullish after the failed break of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so we will likely see a touch of the resistance at 1.1840.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is day one of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, so volatility is likely to be affected. This meeting takes place annually and is attended by finance ministers, central bankers and other financial personalities from across the globe. The actual impact depends on the speeches of the attendants and today no major speeches are scheduled.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the control belonged to the bears who managed to take the pair below 1.2815 but movement was slower, partly due to the lack of economic data releases.

Technical Outlook

The pair is trading below 1.2815 and seems headed towards 1.2770, which is an important support level. Once price reaches this barrier, we expect to see a retracement higher, mostly due to the oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index but also because key levels are rarely broken in the first try. Overall our bias is bearish but bullish pressure will increase at support.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Second Estimate GDP is released, showing changes in the value of all goods and services produced by the British economy. It acts as the primary gauge of economic performance and higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound. Today’s forecasted change is 0.3%, same as previous.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: ENDING THE WEEK IN FULL FORCE: ECB’S DRAGHI AND FED’S YELLEN BOTH SPEAK AT THE JACKSON HOLE SYMPOSIUM

EUR/USD

Forex News: For most of yesterday’s trading session the pair was confined in a tight range after failing to break the previous top. The economic scene was calm and the Jackson Hole Symposium did not trigger notable movement.

Technical Outlook

The pair is ranging without direction or conviction from either side and we expect this movement to continue until economic data will be released and the two heads of central banks will speak. The levels to watch are 1.1775 as support and 1.1820 – 1.1840 as resistance. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is another location where we can see an important bounce or break but until something notable happens, the bias is neutral.

Fundamental Outlook

The first release of the day is the German IFO Business Climate, scheduled at 8:00 am GMT. This is a survey with a very large sample size of about 7,000 businesses that are asked to give their assessment on current and future business conditions. The survey acts as a leading indicator of optimism and higher numbers than the anticipated 115.5 usually strengthen the Euro.

At 12:30 pm GMT the U.S. Durable Goods Orders come out, showing changes in the value of orders for goods with a live expectancy of more than 3 years. A higher than anticipated number shows increased economic activity and usually strengthens the US Dollar. Today’s forecast is -6.0%, which is a hefty decrease from the previous 6.4%.

Fed Chair Yellen will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium today at 4:00 pm GMT and ECB President Mario Draghi will speak later at 7:00 pm GMT. These speeches can potentially move the respective currencies strongly, so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The British Gross Domestic Product matched the market consensus, to the impact of the release was limited. However, most of yesterday’s session was bullish, following a bounce at 1.2770 support.

Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index was oversold, warning that a bullish retracement will soon follow and this happened yesterday, after a near touch of 1.2770. For today we expect to see another move lower and if this move doesn’t break 1.2770, we will probably see a period of bullish movement, with 1.2850 as target.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by major economic releases so the pair’s direction will be decided by the technical aspect and the U.S. events mentioned above.