外汇分析 | Gdmfx Brokerage | 每日报告

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FOREX NEWS: ENDING THE WEEK WITH A BANG: GERMAN INFLATION AND U.S. GDP

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Durable Goods Orders posted a much better than anticipated reading yesterday and this was part of the reason why the US Dollar strengthened and took the pair into support. Also, the Euro was overbought and this contributed to the pullback.

Technical Outlook

The pair was overbought for a long time so a retracement was needed but the uptrend remains strong so overall our bias is bullish, anticipating another climb. A good place for the upside movement to resume is the current level at 1.1685 but if this barrier is broken, we expect to see a drop into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The fundamental side will also play an important role today.

Fundamental Outlook

There are two important releases today: the first is the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 12:00 pm GMT and expected to show a change of 0.2%, same as previous. The second indicator is the U.S. Advance version of the Gross Domestic Product, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT; the expected change is 2.5%, which is a big increase from the previous 1.4%. This version is the most important out of the three (Advance, Preliminary and Final), so its impact tends to be the highest.


GBP/USD

The bulls made another push yesterday but upside momentum finally faded and the US Dollar got a boost from positive economic data, thus the pair dropped later in the day.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action established 1.3160 as resistance, so this level will act as a target if bullish action resumes. The bearish break of 1.3100 shows that the balance is tilting towards the US Dollar, at least in the short term. Depending on the U.S. GDP reading, we expect to see a drop into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, but a quick return above 1.3100 will make 1.3160 the first destination.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the rest of the week, the Pound has a light day ahead, without anything notable on the economic calendar, so the pair’s direction will be decided by the technical aspect and by the US Gross Domestic Product.

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FOREX NEWS: EURO ON THE RISE AHEAD OF INFLATION DATA, US DOLLAR LOOKING TO CHICAGO PMI FOR A BOOST

EUR/USD

Forex News: Despite a better than anticipated U.S. Gross Domestic Product, the US Dollar weakened Friday and the pair closed the week above 1.1700. The climb was helped by the lower than expected change in the price of all goods and services included in the GDP, which came below market expectations (GDP Price Index forecast 1.3%, actual 1.0%).

Technical Outlook

The greenback continues to weaken against most of its counterparts and it seems like market participants are looking for the slightest reason to sell it (even a better than expected GDP doesn’t help). For today we expect to see a touch of 1.1775 (last week’s high) but a break or bounce will probably depend on the Euro and US Dollar data released throughout the day. It’s also possible to see a ranging session, especially if the economic data matches expectations.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the Euro will be affected by the release of the European Flash Estimate CPI, which is the main gauge of inflation but because other Eurozone member states have already released inflation data, the impact of this indicator is usually medium, not high. The forecast for today is a change of 1.3%, same as previous.

On the US Dollar side we have the Chicago PMI, which is a survey of purchasing managers from the Chicago area that acts as a leading indicator of economic optimism. The expected reading is 60.8 and usually higher numbers strengthen the greenback but the impact is medium-to-low.


GBP/USD

The latest drop was almost completely erased Friday and the bulls closed the week above the key level at 1.3100. Later in the day we saw a move lower but this could be attributed to end-of-week profit taking.

Technical Outlook

The pair is headed for the resistance at 1.3160 and a break would suggest trend resumption, with higher prices to follow. However, if this barrier cannot be broken, we expect to see a drop into 1.3100 and possibly the start of a ranging period. Mondays are usually slow days and the oscillators are lacking momentum, thus adding to the possibility of a trading session confined in a relatively tight range.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a light economic day ahead, so the U.S. events and the technical aspect will be the main drivers for today’s price action.

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FOREX NEWS: UPTRENDS STILL IN PLACE BUT OVERBOUGHT LEVELS CALL FOR PULLBACKS

EUR/USD

Forex News: Most of yesterday’s trading session was slow and ranging, as it was somewhat anticipated; the European Consumer Price Index matched analysts’ predictions, so the impact was muted and volatility remained low at the time of release.

Technical Outlook

The pair came in close vicinity of 1.1713 and found new buyers there, so yesterday’s strongest move was bullish. In the first part of today’s session we expect to see an encounter with the resistance 1.1775 but if this level cannot be broken decisively, the sellers will probably take over and take the pair into 1.1713 and possibly into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average over the next days. Keep in mind that the pair is overbought on a Daily and even a Weekly chart and this suggests that a stronger pullback will soon follow.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro has a non-eventful day ahead and on the US Dollar side, the U.S. Manufacturing PMI will be the main event. This is a survey of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector that tries to gauge their opinions regarding business conditions and overall economic situation in the said sector. The time of release is 2:00 pm GMT, the forecast is 56.4 and a higher than anticipated number shows optimism, usually strengthening the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair didn’t reach 1.3160 resistance yesterday and instead returned lower to test support where it bounced slightly higher. Overall the session was slow and without a clear bias.

Technical Outlook

We will probably see more of this ranging movement until 1.3100 or 1.3160 is broken decisively. For the moment we expect to see an encounter with 1.3160, considering the nice bounce at 1.3100 support, which indicates bullish pressure. If that level is broken, the next barrier is located at 1.3200 (psychological resistance), followed by 1.3250 (technical resistance).

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will also be affected by manufacturing data today, in the form of the British Manufacturing PMI. Similar to the U.S. indicator with the same name, this one can strengthen the currency if the actual number comes above forecast, which for today is 54.4.

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FOREX NEWS: ADP NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT CHANGE – A FIRST LOOK AT U.S. JOBS SITUATION

EUR/USD

Forex News: US Dollar weakness continued and the pair broke decisively above 1.1775, reaching highs last seen in 2015. The US Manufacturing PMI came very close to expectations, thus the impact was low.

Technical Outlook

The recent push above 1.1775 opens the door for a move into 1.1875, which is a level that last acted as support in 2010, when it rejected a strong drop. However, the level was reached more recently, in 2015 but the pair just moved through it without any type of bounce. If this level is reached today, we expect to see rejection there, mostly because the pair is overextended and the Relative Strength Index will probably become overbought by then. Retracements are very possible even before the pair reaches 1.1875.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look at U.S. jobs situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which is a report that tracks changes in the total number of employed people, excluding the Government and the farming industry. The forecast is 187K and usually a higher number strengthens the US Dollar but the impact is lower than the Government issued NFP which comes out Friday.


GBP/USD

British Manufacturing PMI fuelled the Pound and took the pair close to the resistance around 1.3250, giving us another session controlled by the bulls.

Technical Outlook

Although the pair is in an uptrend, the resistance at 1.3250 is likely to trigger a pullback lower. The relative Strength Index has been long overbought and is constantly showing bearish divergence (price is making higher highs while the oscillator is making lower highs or double tops). If the pair retraces lower, it may find support around 1.3160 but a lot of today’s movement will depend on the economic data.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction PMI will be released today at 8:30 am GMT, showing the opinions of purchasing managers about business and economic conditions in the Construction sector. This is a leading indicator of economic health, but its impact is high only if the actual number differs strongly from expectations. Today’s forecast is 54.2 and a higher number is usually beneficial for the Pound. The pair will also be directly affected by the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.

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FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON THE POUND: BOE INFLATION REPORT, INTEREST RATE AND GOVERNOR CARNEY’S PRESS CONFERENCE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair climbed after the worse than expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and spiked very close to 1.1875. However, most of the Dollar losses were erased soon after and now it seems like bullish pressure is fading.

Technical Outlook

Over the last couple of days, price action slowed down considerably and long wicks started to appear. This is a sign that the uptrend is wavering and that the pair is likely to move lower for the end of the week. The main levels to watch are 1.1875 as resistance and 1.1775 as support, followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Given the latest price action, we expect to see a touch of support but keep in mind that the main trend is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro has a light day ahead and for the US Dollar the only notable release is the Non-Manufacturing PMI (also called the Services PMI), scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. The expected number is 56.9 and usually higher numbers strengthen the USD but the impact is medium, not high.


GBP/USD

The pair had similar behaviour to the EUR/USD, first climbing very close to resistance and then erasing most of the losses. Overall yesterday’s session was choppy and without clear direction.

Technical Outlook

The Pound bulls have tried twice to take the pair above the resistance at 1.3250 but the result wasn’t positive. Now the candles have long wicks, showing rejection and the Relative Strength Index is bouncing at its 70 level, suggesting an overbought condition. Today’s direction will depend mostly on the fundamental side but strictly from a technical standpoint, we expect bearish pullbacks.

Fundamental Outlook

At 11:00 am GMT the Bank of England will release their Inflation Report, will announce the Interest Rate (no change expected) and will release the Monetary Policy Summary. Half an hour later, BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference discussing the Inflation Report. This cluster of events will most likely trigger increased volatility, so caution is recommended until things calm down and a clear direction emerges.

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FOREX NEWS: BIG MOVEMENT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK: NON-FARM PAYROLLS TAKE CENTER STAGE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was rather choppy and price retraced after a spike above 1.1875 resistance. The U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI showed a disappointing figure and this further weakened the US Dollar, bringing the pair close to resistance.

Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is testing 1.1875 resistance for the second time is a short while, with the Relative Strength Index showing an overbought condition. A deeper pullback is long overdue and the uptrend is overextended so we may see a move into 1.1775 and possibly into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average if 1.1885 barrier is not broken decisively. However, the main catalyst for today’s price action will be the U.S. jobs data and before the release we may experience choppy movement.

Fundamental Outlook

All eyes will be on the US Dollar today for the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change (also known as the Non-Farm Payrolls). This report is widely regarded as the most important jobs data for the United States and its release triggers strong movement almost all the time. More employed people means that consumer spending is likely to increase in the near future and this in turn strengthens the US Dollar. The time of release is 12:30 pm GMT and the expected change is 181K (previous 222K).


GBP/USD

The Bank of England kept the rate unchanged as expected but lowered inflation expectations and Governor Mark Carney was dovish during the press conference that followed. These were the main reasons why the pair posted a strongly bearish session yesterday.

Technical Outlook

The pair dropped into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the current candle shows a long wick in its lower part, suggesting rejection. If price remains below the 50 EMA and below 1.3160, we can expect a touch of 1.3100, but the technical aspect will be secondary to the U.S. employment data released today.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major events on the Pound’s calendar for today, so the pair’s direction will be mainly influenced by the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and to a lesser extent, by the technical aspect.

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FOREX NEWS: BEARISH MOMENTUM ON THE RISE, US DOLLAR BOOSTED BY THE NON-FARM PAYROLLS

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday’s highlight was without a doubt the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, which posted a number of 209K new jobs, better than the anticipated 182K. This gave a breath of fresh air to the US Dollar and created a strongly bearish session.

Technical Outlook

After failing to break 1.1875 several times, the pair dropped below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on the back of positive U.S. employment data. This is a much needed pullback as the Relative Strength Index was overbought on a Daily chart and is still overbought on a Weekly chart, so we expect the current downside momentum to extend throughout today’s session and the pair to remain below the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The Sentix Investor Confidence is today’s only notable release, albeit it’s a low impact indicator. This is a survey of about 2,800 investors, which tries to gauge the respondents’ opinion regarding a 6-month outlook for the Eurozone economy. Usually, a higher than anticipated number suggests optimism and strengthens the Euro, but as mentioned before, the impact is limited. The time of release is 8:30 am GMT and the expected number is 27.8.


GBP/USD

Friday the pair continued the momentum started a day before and dropped about 130 pips on the back of US Dollar strength generated by the positive NFP reading.

Technical Outlook

The latest impulse is definitely bearish but price has reached support at 1.3030 and the Relative Strength Index has descended into its 30 level, which suggests that the pair is becoming oversold. A more important level is located at 1.3000, where we expect to see some sort of bounce higher; a break of this level will open the door for 1.2930 but we don’t expect that mark to be reached today. To the upside, the first barrier is located at 1.3100.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic releases for today, so the technical aspect will be the deciding factor for the pair’s direction.

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FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT THREATENED AS THE US DOLLAR GAINS SOME TRACTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday price action slowed down but overall the pair had a slightly bullish bias, climbing above 1.1775 resistance. The economic scene was calm, without a major impact on direction.

Technical Outlook

Today we expect to see a continuation of the bearish momentum started Friday by the better than expected Non-Farm Payrolls report and we consider yesterday’s price action just a normal retracement after a strong move. If the pair descends below 1.1775, the first target will become 1.1713 – 1.1700 but it must be noted that an uptrend is still in place, so if 1.1775 rejects price, we may see a move closer to 1.1875.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead is light in terms of economic releases, with the only notable indicator being the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. As the name suggests, this report shows the number of open jobs, excluding the farming sector but its impact is usually low-to-medium; however, a higher number shows increased economic activity and strengthens the US Dollar. Today’s forecast is 5.66 Million, very similar to the previous 5.67 Million.


GBP/USD

After a small bounce, the pair moved lower and approached the psychological level at 1.3000. The trading session was slower but it looks like the US Dollar is winning the short term battle.

Technical Outlook

For today we expect to see a touch of the key support located at 1.3000 but after that, the chances of a move up will increase because the Relative Strength Index is approaching its 30 level for the second time in a very short while. A break of 1.3000 would mean a great victory for the bears but even if it happens today, the extent of the move down should be limited and followed by a retracement that will clear the oversold condition of the RSI.

Fundamental Outlook

We don’t have any important economic indicators on the Pound’s calendar, so the pair’s direction will be mainly decided by the technical aspect and the U.S. data.

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FOREX NEWS: PAIRS ROLLING DOWNHILL, US DOLLAR BACK IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT

EUR/USD

Forex News: Price action was very slow until the release of the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings that posted a number of 6.16 Million, better than the anticipated 5.74 Million. This brought a wave of positive momentum to the US Dollar and the pair descended below support.

Technical Outlook

The pair has breached the support at 1.1775 on the back of positive U.S. economic data and it appears like the US Dollar is gaining momentum. If the bears can keep price below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.1775, we expect to see a move into 1.1713 and possibly 1.1700. Our bias is bearish but we acknowledge the fact that an uptrend is still in place and this means that a bounce at the next support is very possible.

Fundamental Outlook

We have yet another slow economic day ahead, with the only notable indicator being the U.S. Preliminary Unit Labor Costs, scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT. The indicator shows the annualized change in the price paid by businesses for labor, excluding the farming sector. It has inflationary implications and usually a higher than expected value can strengthen the US Dollar but the impact is limited, especially if the actual number comes close or matches analysts’ forecast, which for today is a change of 1.1%.


GBP/USD

Bearish momentum continued throughout yesterday’s trading session, mostly fuelled by better than expected U.S. economic data. The key psychological level at 1.3000 was broken decisively and this is likely to trigger additional downside movement.

Technical Outlook

The pair is under heavy selling pressure and the break of the support at 1.3000 suggests that we will soon see a touch of 1.2930. However, it must be noted that the Relative Strength Index is entering oversold for the third time in a short period and this is an early warning that a bounce higher will soon follow. A good place for this bounce is 1.2930 but if price turns up before that, we expect 1.3000 to provide resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any economic releases for today, thus price direction will be decided by the technical aspect and the U.S. Labor Costs mentioned earlier.

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FOREX NEWS: POLITICAL TENSIONS ON THE RISE. IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a mixed trading session yesterday, fist descending below the 1.1700 mark and then climbing above the level. Political tensions between the United States and North Korea contributed to the choppy movement.

Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below the resistance at 1.1775, our short-to-medium term bias is bearish, anticipating another move below 1.1713 – 1.1700. Over the last months the US Dollar lost the battle with the Euro, so it’s clear that underlying bullish pressure still exists and now the latest candles show rejection, thus increasing the chances of a move up. We recommend caution because the US Dollar may be affected by surprise comments coming from American and/or North Korean politicians.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the United States Producer Price Index comes out, showing changes in the price that producers charge for their goods. It is considered a high-impact indicator, with inflationary implications because eventually a higher producer price translates into a higher consumer price. The expected change is 0.1% and usually a higher than anticipated value strengthens the greenback.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar gave back some of the gains yesterday, mostly due to disappointing economic data, but the pair found resistance at 1.3000 and bounced lower later in the afternoon.

Technical Outlook

The oversold condition of the Relative Strength Index was an early warning that a retracement will follow and this happened yesterday. The move up found good resistance at 1.3000 where it bounced lower, so we can expect this level to play an important role for future price action. Today’s direction will be mostly decided by the fundamental side but our bias is bearish as long as price stays below 1.3000. Keep in mind that the US Dollar may be affected by the political environment and by tensions between the U.S. and North Korea.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound had a slow economic week so far and we can say that today is the busiest day of the week, with the British Manufacturing Production released at 8:30 am GMT. The indicator measures the change in the total value of goods produced by the manufacturing sector and usually has a high impact on the currency, with better than expected numbers strengthening it. Today’s forecast is a change of 0.0%, while the previous was -0.2%.