外汇分析 | Gdmfx Brokerage | 每日报告

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FOREX NEWS: GREENBACK SLIDES LOWER AS COUNTERPARTS GAIN GROUND

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar continued to show weakness throughout yesterday’s trading session and the pair remained well above support, coming close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Technical Outlook

We expect the current bullish move to extend into the 50 EMA or slightly above, into 1.0610 and there, the sellers are likely to regain control, taking the pair lower for another attempt to break 1.0525. It must be noted that the US Dollar has shown clear weakness over the last couple of days, despite hints towards a possible rate hike and this could mean that bullish movement might not stop at the Moving Average or at 1.0610. However, the way price behaves there will offer clues about the future medium term trend.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. New Home Sales numbers are released today at 3:00 pm GMT and this is the only notable indicator of the day. Usually the impact is medium-to-low but a higher number than the forecast 575K shows increased activity in the housing sector and strengthens the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair finally showed a little determination yesterday and managed to break the bearish trend line as well as the resistance at 1.2480, giving us a one-directional trading session.

Technical Outlook

Now that the pair has finally broken an important level, we expect to see additional movement in the direction of the break, which in this case is up. For today the first target is 1.2550 resistance but it’s very possible to see a return at the recently broken 1.2480 for a re-test form above. If this happens, the previous resistance will turn into support and the probability of an extended move to the upside will increase.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important economic releases for today so the technical aspect will be the main market mover. We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

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FOREX NEWS: PAIRS SLIDE LOWER, US DOLLAR SHOWS SIGNS OF RECOVERY

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the pair initially moved above the 50 period EMA but reacted to resistance and dropped back below the Moving Average. U.S. President Trump spoke at the Conservative Political Action Conference but the speech was announced late and came as a surprise.

Technical Outlook

The pair found resistance at 1.0610 and posted a nice drop that took it below the Exponential Moving Average. The Stochastic has crossed downwards in overbought territory and price shows lower highs and lower lows, which is a characteristic of a downtrend, thus making us anticipate a drop into 1.0525. However if price moves higher from the current level, then a new higher low will be created, and the pair may be entering a ranging period.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s main event is the release of the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The indicator shows changes in the total value of purchase orders for long lasting goods, with a life expectancy of at least 3 years. Higher values than the forecast 1.6% (previous -0.5%) usually strengthen the US Dollar but the impact is limited if the actual number comes close to analysts’ expectations.


GBP/USD

Friday the US Dollar strengthened and the pair dropped, nullifying all the gains accumulated a day before and leaving market participants with more uncertainty regarding the next direction.

Technical Outlook

The bulls ran out of steam at 1.2550 resistance and the pair dropped sharply to touch the recently broken bearish trend line. The way price behaves here will offer clues about future direction: if price responds well to the trend line and bounces higher, we expect another move into 1.2550 (not necessarily today) and otherwise, 1.2420 will be probably broken.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar for the Pound is light today, without any major news announcements so we may get a ranging session, with price direction mainly affected by the technical aspect.

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FOREX NEWS: U.S. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: A LIFELINE FOR THE US DOLLAR?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The first day of the week was controlled by the bulls despite a better than expected value for the U.S. Durable Goods Orders. The pair moved above the 50 period EMA and resistance was tested but not broken.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action created a higher low and the pair moved above the 50 Exponential Moving Average, showing bullish signs. However, the resistance at 1.0610 is not broken at the time of writing and this means that the way price behaves here may decide the future medium term direction: a break will make the bias bullish and 1.0650 will become the first target, otherwise the pair is headed towards 1.0525 zone once again.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s main event is the release of the U.S. Preliminary Gross Domestic Product, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show a 2.1% change compared to the previous 1.9%. The GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge and higher numbers usually strengthen the currency although the effect may take some while to materialize.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT we have another U.S. release: the Consumer Confidence survey, which tries to gauge the opinions of about 5,000 households regarding current and future economic conditions. The forecast is 111.1 and numbers above this value usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair had a mixed session Monday, without major advances to either side but we saw another failed attempt to move below 1.2420, which resulted in a bounce higher.

Technical Outlook

The pair has tried several times to break 1.2420 and has established another support at 1.2385 but it remains in a range overall. The current move up is likely to reach the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but there it will also encounter the resistance at 1.2480 and given the current conditions, we don’t expect that level to be broken.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a light economic calendar for today, without any major economic releases, thus the U.S. events and the technical side will be the factors that will decide direction.

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FOREX NEWS: CHOPPINESS CONTINUES, BREAKOUTS ON THE HORIZON

EUR/USD

Forex News: U.S. Gross Domestic Product showed a change of 1.9%, below analysts’ expectation of 2.1% and this contributed to bullish price action for the pair yesterday. Despite a better than expected U.S. Consumer Confidence survey released later in the day, the US Dollar couldn’t drive the pair lower.

Technical Outlook

Price has moved above the resistance at 1.0610 for the second time in a short while and it seems like the bulls are taking control of price action, although volatility remains relatively low. Price is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above resistance, with the Relative Strength Index showing some upside momentum so we expect to see a climb into 1.0650 but once the RSI becomes overbought, the pair is likely to reverse, especially if this happens near resistance and volatility remains low.

Fundamental Outlook

Early today, at 2:00 am GMT, U.S. President Trump will speak before the Congress about healthcare and other topics. The impact of this speech is not known but caution is recommended. Later in the day, at 1:00 pm GMT the German Preliminary Consumer Price index comes out, showing changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase. This is the main gauge of German inflation and plays an important role for overall European inflation, with higher values than the expected 0.6% strengthening the Euro.

The last important release of the day is the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to post a figure of 56.2. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health, derived from the opinions of purchasing managers and usually a higher value strengthens the US Dollar but the impact is often limited if the actual number matches expectations.


GBP/USD

The pair completed another lacklustre day yesterday, without any major developments on the fundamental scene and with choppy price action, which lacked clear direction.

Technical Outlook

Resistance was touched and price moved lower but failed to break support and now appears to be headed higher; this behaviour is a clear indication that neither bulls nor bears are in control and the pair lacks direction. As long as price remains between 1.2420 and 1.2480 and the 50 Exponential Moving Average is flat, we consider it in a range and our bias is neutral, expecting a strong breakout.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 9:30 am GMT the Pound will be affected by the release of the British Manufacturing PMI, a survey of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector. The indicator usually brings Pound strength if it posts a higher reading than today’s forecast of 55.7 but the impact is often mild.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR GAINS THE UPPER HAND, BUYERS LIKELY TO RETALIATE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar finally showed signs of strength yesterday and pushed the pair lower after another false break of resistance. The pair is still not clearly trending but at least it moves in a more decisive manner.

Technical Outlook

After another failed push above 1.0610, price moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and continued lower into 1.0525 support. If the US Dollar strength seen yesterday will continue today, we expect to see a move below the current support and into 1.0460 but a bullish pullback is very likely before the next support is reached. As long as the pair remains below the 50 EMA, our bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s highlight is the release of the Eurozone Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 10:00 am GMT and expected to show a change of 1.8%, same as previous; however, the release is likely to have just a medium impact because the German CPI, which accounts for an important part of overall European inflation, was already released yesterday. Normally, higher inflation brings strength for the currency.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair finally broke out of the tight range it was trapped in for a long while and key support was broken, opening the door for additional bearish movement.

Technical Outlook

The recent breakout will probably generate a move into 1.2250 support but before that can happen, it’s very possible to see a re-test of 1.2350 from below. If this previous support turns into resistance, then the chances of a move into 1.2250 will increase, otherwise the pair is likely to re-enter a ranging condition. The oscillators are becoming oversold and this makes a pullback more likely.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction PMI is released today at 9:30 am GMT and is the only notable event for the Pound. This survey acts as a leading indicator of optimism and economic health but the impact is usually low if the actual number matches analysts’ forecast, which for today is 52.2, same as previous.

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FOREX NEWS: OVERSOLD LEVELS CALL FOR BULLISH PULLBACKS

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the Eurozone CPI showed that inflation is improving but despite this, the pair descended below 1.0525 after a small bullish pullback. Volatility remained relatively high and price approached minor support.

Technical Outlook

The fact that 1.0525 support was broken yesterday is a major victory for the bears but it must be noted that this level was broken before and price returned above it almost immediately. Also, we have minor support around 1.0495 and the Stochastic is close to oversold, so we expect to see a bounce higher. If the pair remains below 1.0525, the next target will become 1.0460, otherwise the move up may find resistance at the 50 period EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI (also called Services PMI) is released, showing the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers regarding the condition of the services sector. The forecast is 56.5, same as previous and usually numbers above it, strengthen the US Dollar.

The last event of the week is a speech delivered by Fed Chair Yellen at the Executives Club of Chicago on the topic of economic outlook. The speech should be treated with caution because it may spark increased volatility; the time is 6:00 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

The British Construction PMI released yesterday matched analysts’ expectations and the event went mostly unnoticed but the pair continued lower and came very close to 1.2250 support.

Technical Outlook

The last candles show long wicks in both their upper and lower parts, which is a clear sign of indecision but also a warning that the bearish move will retrace higher. On top of that, both oscillators are moving into oversold territory, further increasing the chances of a move north. If this type of move occurs today, we don’t expect it to surpass 1.2350 but if the pair moves below 1.2250 before the mentioned pullback, the extent should be limited.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Services PMI is the last in this week’s series and shows the opinions of purchasing managers from the services sector regarding economic conditions in said sector. The impact is often low but usually, higher values than the expected 54.2 bring Pound strength; the time of release is 9:30 am GMT.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR ON THE ROPES AGAIN, RESISTANCE THREATENED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair moved higher for the entire trading session Friday, with the most distance covered during Fed Chair Yellen’s speech, despite the fact that she mentioned a possible rate hike at the next Fed meeting.

Technical Outlook

Price travelled a very long distance compared to previous days and this usually generates a move to the opposite side in the form of a retracement. First resistance is located at 1.0630 and we expect it to be hit early in the day, then price to return lower but as long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bullish. A break of 1.0630 will open the door for 1.0680 but price will most likely retrace again before hitting that target.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Factory Orders are today’s only notable indicator but usually the impact on the US Dollar is low, especially if the actual number matches the forecast. The release is scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT and the expected change is 1.1% (previous 1.3%); higher values strengthen the US Dollar and show that manufacturers will increase their activity to fill the orders.


GBP/USD

The pair briefly dipped below 1.2250 Friday but soon climbed back above it; most of the US Dollar weakness was seen during and after Janet Yellen’s speech but the bias is still bearish.

Technical Outlook

Although price climbed Friday, this doesn’t make our bias bullish and in fact, such a retracement higher was already predicted, mostly because the pair travelled a long distance without pullbacks and both oscillators were already oversold. The pair may continue higher but the extent of this correction should be limited and followed by another drop into 1.2250.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar for the Pound is light, without any important releases, thus we may see ranging price action, influenced mainly by the technical aspect.

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FOREX NEWS: BUYERS RUN OUT OF STEAM AT RESISTANCE. WHAT’S NEXT FOR THE US DOLLAR?

EUR/USD

Forex News: As it was expected, yesterday the pair retraced lower after Friday’s strong climb but resistance was tested before that. The fundamental scene was calm, without important releases.

Technical Outlook

The pair tested the resistance at 1.0630, which proved a strong barrier in front of rising price but today we expect another encounter with the mentioned level and the way price behaves there will determine the next direction. If the barrier cannot be surpassed on the second attempt, it should be considered a sign that the bulls have run out of steam and that we will probably see a move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. On the other hand, a break of 1.0630 will open the door for a touch of 1.0680.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to yesterday’s trading session, the technical aspect will prevail today because the pair will not be affected by major economic releases for the Euro or US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s trading session was rather slow, without major developments on either side. The bullish retracement seems complete now and we expect the bears to step back in.

Technical Outlook

The pair was in need of a bullish retracement, mostly due to the oversold condition of both oscillators but now that retracement seems complete so we expect a break of 1.2250 support and a touch of 1.2215. If 1.2250 is not broken today, the pair will either enter a ranging period or will continue higher until the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is hit.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important economic releases for today, so the technical side will be the deciding factor for direction.

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FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF FIRST U.S. JOBS DATA OF THE MONTH

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was mostly controlled by the sellers, who managed to take the pair below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. It is now clear that 1.0630 is strong resistance and that it will probably reject price in the future.

Technical Outlook

If the pair remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the current move will turn into a reversal of the previous move up and will make 1.0525 the first target. The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are showing good downside momentum and this increases the chances of a move into the mentioned support. As long as the pair is trading below the 50 EMA our bias is bearish but an important role will be played today by the U.S. jobs data.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:15 pm GMT we take a first look at the U.S. jobs situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, a report that tracks changes in the total number of employed people, excluding the Government and Farming sectors. The impact is lower than the Government issued Non-Farm Payrolls (which is scheduled Friday) but nonetheless, the US Dollar usually reacts strongly to the data. Higher numbers than the forecast 184K show increased economic activity and signal a future increase in consumer spending.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar continued to strengthen against the Pound yesterday, breaking support and re-establishing a medium term downtrend.

Technical Outlook

The pair is now headed towards the key support zone between 1.2125 and 1.2090 and the overall picture seems bearish but it must be noted that the Relative Strength Index has entered oversold for the second time in a short while. This is a solid indication that the pair is likely to show a deeper retracement to the upside in the near future.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the HM Treasury will release UK’s Annual Budget and this may trigger increased Pound volatility but the exact impact is not known.

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FOREX NEWS: DRAGHI TAKES CENTRE STAGE AS THE MARKET PREPARES FOR ECB MEETING

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the ADP Non-Farm Employment report showed a reading of 298K, way above the expected 185K but the Dollar’s reaction was mixed, strengthening at first and then erasing all gains and moving back to where the initial drop started.

Technical Outlook

There is no clear reason for the climb back up but it must be noted that the entire move is just under 30 pips and no major S/R level was broken so we may very well see another drop generated by a delayed effect of yesterday’s U.S. jobs data. The pair is still under the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the bias is bearish but direction will probably be decided by the ECB meeting today.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the focus is on the Euro as the ECB will announce their interest rate at 12:45 pm GMT, followed at 1:30 pm GMT by a press conference held by ECB President Mario Draghi. The rate is not expected to change from the current 0.00%, so unless anything surprising happens, the event will mostly go unnoticed because usually traders wait for Draghi’s reaction at the press conference. The way he answers journalists’ questions will have a high impact on the Euro, especially if he hints towards a rate hike.


GBP/USD

Price action established 1.2215 as resistance and continued lower as the Pound weakened and the greenback strengthened throughout the day, generating a bearish session overall.

Technical Outlook

The pair is headed towards the support at 1.2125 but the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are both showing clear oversold condition and also bullish divergence (price is making lower lows while the oscillator is making higher lows). These factors make us anticipate a bounce higher, possibly into the newly established resistance at 1.2215, but may extend into 1.2250.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s another slow day for the Pound as the United Kingdom did not schedule major economic news releases, thus the pair will be mainly affected by the technical side.