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FOREX NEWS: U.S. NON-FARM PAYROLLS: THE FIRST MAJOR RELEASE OF 2017

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a mixed trading session yesterday, moving above and below the level at 1.0525, without a clear bias. The jobs data released yesterday by the United States came below expectations and this weakened the US Dollar to some extent.

Technical Outlook

The pair is still governed by indecision but the latest impulse is bullish and seems like price will be trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average for another day. The first important resistance is located around 1.0650 but it must be noted that the Stochastic has entered overbought and although this is not a short signal by itself, it’s something that may be of importance for future price action. Today’s technical aspect will be secondary to the fundamental and all eyes will be on the U.S. jobs data.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:30 pm GMT the Non-Farm Payrolls will take centre stage and will influence the greenback heavily. This is considered the most important U.S. jobs data and almost always has a strong impact on the currency. The forecast is 175K (previous 178K) and higher numbers show that more jobs were created and that consumer spending and overall economic activity may increase in the near future; a higher number usually strengthens the US Dollar while a lower number weakens it.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar weakened yesterday and allowed the Pound to take the pair above resistance once again. The pair is also trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and this makes our bias slightly bullish.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday the pair moved again below the 50 EMA and quickly bounced above it; this shows bearish weakness and suggests that we may see a move higher today. The first barrier and target is 1.2385 and if that level is taken out, we expect a move closer to 1.2480 during the days to come. Another quick move below the 50 EMA would make 1.2250 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news announcements for today so the main focus will be on the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and on the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR BOOSTED BY NFP REVISION, SUPPORT THREATENED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls released Friday showed a lower number than analysts had expected but the previous value was revised higher and this boosted the US Dollar, creating a bearish move for the pair.

Technical Outlook

The current move down is likely to extend into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, where a classic ‘bounce-or-break’ scenario will play out. If the pair goes through the Moving Average, it will show that the bullish run has come to an end and that we will see further downside during the days to come; on the other hand, a bounce will take the pair back into 1.0600 territory and would open the door for a continuation of the bullish impulse started last week.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the Sentix Investor Confidence survey comes out and it’s the day’s only notable indicator. The survey gauges the opinions of about 2,800 investors and analysts regarding a 6-month outlook for the Eurozone but usually has a low impact on the pair; nonetheless, higher numbers than the forecast 12.6 (previous 10.0) show optimism and can strengthen the Euro.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar erased Friday almost all of the losses incurred earlier during the week and took the pair below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. A big role was played by the revision of the previous value of the U.S. NFP and now the US Dollar is showing increasing strength against its counterparts.

Technical Outlook

For today we expect a touch of the support at 1.2250 and a consequent bounce higher. After this possible bounce and as long as price is trading below the 50 EMA, we anticipate a break of 1.2250 and another test of 1.2200. However, a strong trend is not in place and given the lack of major news announcements today, we may get a ranging session, without clear direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major economic releases today, thus price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.

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FOREX NEWS: POUND WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY. IS EURO NEXT?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a slow trading session yesterday, with a timid climb in the afternoon after a near-touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Part of this behaviour was due to a lacklustre economic calendar.

Technical Outlook

Price is showing rejection around 1.0525 support and the 50 period EMA but the bullish momentum doesn’t seem strong and in fact price lacks a clear bias. For today keep an eye on 1.0610 as a potential upper target if the bounce gathers some momentum, while to the downside, 1.0460 will become a valid destination if the Moving Average and 1.0525 support are decisively broken.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the only notable indicator of the day is released: the JOLTS Job Openings, a report that shows the number of job openings available in the U.S., excluding the farming industry. The forecast is 5.59 Million and usually numbers above it strengthen the US Dollar because they indicate that consumer spending is likely to increase in the near future. The indicator is considered medium-impact but it can generate some movement nonetheless.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar strengthened substantially against the Pound yesterday and this generated a sharp drop for the pair, which broke through 1.2200 support and renewed the downtrend.

Technical Outlook

Although the pair dropped yesterday and the bears are in control for the time being, the two oscillators have reached oversold levels, warning of a potential bounce up. The last couple of candles also show long tails and this is another reason to anticipate a bullish pullback. To the downside 1.2125 is the first barrier, followed by 1.2090, while to the upside first level of importance is located at 1.2200 and as long as the pair remains below it, our bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a light economic calendar for almost the entire week and today is no exception, thus the pair’s movement will be mostly influenced by the U.S. release and by the technical aspect.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STRENGTH FADES, BRITISH MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION EYED FOR NEXT CABLE DIRECTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair showed mixed movement yesterday and a clear direction was not established. This behaviour can be partly attributed to the lack of economic indicators and an overall stale fundamental

Technical Outlook

Price climbed above 1.0610, created a new short-term high and then soon dropped below resistance. This shows lack of interest and strength from the part of the buyers and makes us anticipate a drop that will probably touch the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the support at 1.0525. However, the pair is still making higher highs and this means that a continuation of the medium-term uptrend is not out of the question; a quick move above 1.0610 would open the door for 1.0650 and later 1.0710.

Fundamental Outlook

We have another lacklustre day ahead, with no major indicators for either the Euro or the US Dollar, thus the technical side will prevail once again.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair remained in indecision mode and a drop below 1.2125 was quickly reversed as the US Dollar lost steam; for now the pair is stuck in a range, without a clear bias.

Technical Outlook

From a short term perspective the Pound-Dollar is ranging and this will remain the ‘status quo’ until we see a clear break 1.2125 support or 1.2200 resistance. Rejection is clearly seen around 1.2125 and the oscillators are oversold, facts that make us anticipate a move up in the form of a bullish retracement; a good place for this retracement to end and downside movement to resume is 1.2200 but a quick move below 1.2125 would delay this retracement until 1.2090 is reached.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production numbers will be today’s highlight and also a potential market mover. The indicator measures the change in the value of total goods produced by the manufacturing sector, with higher numbers showing increased economic activity and possibly a stronger Pound. The scheduled time is 9:30 am GMT and the expected change is 0.6% (previous -0.9%).

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR RECOVERS BUT REMAINS ON SHAKY GROUND

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened yesterday ahead of the press conference of U.S. President-Elect Donald Trump which will take place later into the session. However, the next move is uncertain and depends a lot on the things that will be said by the President-Elect.

Technical Outlook

The pair broke the 50 period Exponential Moving Average on a four hour chart and touched 1.0460; if this barrier also breaks, we expect another test of 1.0366 but at the time of writing, President-Elect Trump did not speak yet and this will be a major factor that will influence the US Dollar throughout the days to come. A sudden move above 1.0525 and the 50 period EMA will make the picture bullish again, opening the door for a break of 1.0610 and 1.0650.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 1:30 pm GMT the U.S. Unemployment Claims are released, showing the number of persons who asked for unemployment related help during the previous week. The indicator usually doesn’t have a strong impact on the currency but higher numbers show that more people are unemployed in the United States and this means that consumer spending is likely to decrease. The forecast for today is 266K while the previous number was 235K.


GBP/USD

The pair broke yesterday the key support at 1.2090 after an encounter with 1.2200 and an almost perfect bounce off of it. The downtrend has a new low and the bears are in control of short term movement.

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.2200 proved to be a great place for downtrend resumption and now the key support at 1.2090 is broken, making the picture bearish once again, after a brief period of ranging movement. The pair is in ‘uncharted’ territory and the last known low is 1.1062, reached on the 6th of October 2016. This level may or may not turn into support but of course it is too far to be of any importance for short and medium term movement. We expect today’s price direction to be influenced by the aftermath of Trump’s speech and we recommend caution.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is another lacklustre day for Pound’s economic calendar, but the pair’s direction will be heavily affected by the US Dollar and how it responds to President-Elect Trump’s attitude.

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FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE LEVELS SHATTERED AHEAD OF CLUSTER OF U.S. ECONOMIC RELEASES

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar reacted negatively to President-Elect Trump’s speech delivered yesterday and this allowed the Euro to take the pair through several resistance levels, making the bias bullish again.

Technical Outlook

The level at 1.0460 offered great support yesterday and reversed an earlier drop; after the bounce, the pair is trading above 1.0650 resistance and way above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This makes our bias bullish for the day, anticipating a touch and possibly a break of 1.0710; however, a retracement lower may be in order before price can move higher. Today is the busiest day of the week in terms of economic releases and this will play a major part in the pair’s behaviour.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:30 pm GMT the U.S. Retail Sales numbers come out, showing the change in the total value of sales made through retail outlets. This type of sales represents a major part of the entire consumer spending which in turn accounts for about two thirds of the entire economic activity, so today’s release has the potential to strongly affect the US Dollar. Numbers above the forecast 0.5% (previous 0.1%) usually strengthen the currency.

At the same time the U.S. Producer Price Index is released, showing changes in the price that producers charge for their goods; the indicator has inflationary implications because any change in the price charged by the producer will be eventually reflected in the price paid by the consumer. Values above the forecast 0.1% are usually beneficial to the greenback.

The final release of the day is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT. It acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending and usually strengthens the US Dollar if it posts numbers above the forecast, which for today is 98.6.


GBP/USD

The bearish momentum was reversed yesterday by a strong bullish candle and the pair continued to move to the upside for almost 300 pips. Most of this US Dollar weakness was generated by Trump’s speech.

Technical Outlook

The pair printed a new low at 1.2037 but now it has moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and broke through several resistance levels. The bullish bias is likely to continue but before that, we expect a retracement that will possibly test the 50 period EMA and the level at 1.2250 that may turn into support. To the upside the first target is 1.2325 and we expect it to be reached today if the pair remains above the Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic news announcements for today, thus the technical aspect will prevail and the pair will be also influenced by the U.S. releases mentioned above.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

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FOREX NEWS: PRICE STRUGGLES FOR DIRECTION. MORE CHOPPINESS TO FOLLOW?

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the US Dollar was boosted by better than expected numbers for the U.S. Producer Price Index and Retail Sales, so the pair briefly dipped below 1.0610 but it wasn’t enough for a break and the bulls took price it back up into resistance by the end of the day.

Technical Outlook

Friday’s price action shows that the pair is confined between 1.0610 support and 1.0650 resistance, without a clear bias and we don’t expect today to be much different. However, a break of 1.0650 will open the door for 1.0700 zone, while a break of 1.0610 will probably generate a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The Relative Strength Index is almost flat and the Stochastic is slightly turned to the downside but these are not clear indications of future direction and our view is neutral until a clear breakout is seen.

Fundamental Outlook

Today U.S. banks will be closed due to Martin Luther King Day and no economic data will be released. The European Union didn’t schedule important economic news announcements either, thus price action will be mainly driven by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

Friday’s trading session was very choppy and price bounced all over, without a clear direction. The US Dollar benefited from positive economic data but the gains were quickly erased and choppiness continued.

Technical Outlook

Price tried twice to move above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and both times it was rejected lower immediately; the same happened when the pair touched 1.2125 support, so now neither side is in control. Our view remains neutral until a clear break occurs but it is likely to get another ranging session due to the lack of economic announcements and the fact that U.S. banks are closed today.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the US Dollar and the Euro, the Pound has a lacklustre day, without major economic data on the economic calendar; price action and volatility may be affected by this and we may see a choppy session.

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FOREX NEWS: BREXIT FEARS TAKE CENTRE STAGE AGAIN AS U.K. PRIME MINISTER MAY SPEAKS IN LONDON

EUR/USD

Forex News: U.S. banks were closed yesterday and the European Union didn’t release any important economic data and this resulted in a rather slow session, without major developments. The pair is now trading in close vicinity to the 50 period EMA.

Technical Outlook

The pair has approached the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and is now showing small signs of rejection higher. The picture remains still mixed and control doesn’t clearly belong to either side, so we are likely dealing with a ‘bounce or break’ scenario: a bounce will put the bulls in short term control and will open the door for a break of 1.0650, while a move below the 50 EMA will make 1.0525 the first destination.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the World Economic (WEF) Annual Meetings start in Davos and will be attended by political and financial personalities from more than 90 countries. The Meetings will continue throughout the week and are likely to generate increased volatility.

The Euro will be directly affected at 10:00 am GMT by the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a survey of about 275 German professional analysts and investors that tries to gauge their opinion about a 6 month economic outlook for the German economy. The expected number is 18.9 and usually higher values show optimism and strengthen the Euro.


GBP/USD

The week opened with a gap lower, mostly due to increased fears regarding a “hard” Brexit. We now have a new important low, at 1.0986.

Technical Outlook

More often than not, weekly gaps are closed, meaning that price will retrace to where the gap originated. If that will be the case this time, we will see a climb back into 1.2200 area, but on the other hand, if 1.2090 turns into resistance, then the pair will probably test 1.2000 zone again. Keep in mind that even if the gap is closed, the time span of the move cannot be anticipated, meaning that several days (or even weeks) may pass until the target is reached.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom Prime Minister Theresa May will speak today about her Brexit approach but at the time of writing the exact time of the event is not known. However, be extra careful throughout the day because this speech is likely to trigger very strong movement for the Pound. Also, the WEF Meetings will increase the chances of high volatility.

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FOREX NEWS: BRITISH PRIME MINISTER MAY ADOPTS A HAWKISH STANCE. THE POUND DOWNTREND MAY COME TO AN END

EUR/USD

Forex News: The German ZEW survey posted a lower figure than anticipated but still higher than the previous and this, combined with a hawkish speech delivered by British Prime Minister May, generated a climb into 1.0700 zone.

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average offered good support and pushed price through 1.0650 and into 1.0710, which the pair is now struggling to break. If this resistance is surpassed, price will be heading towards the more important 1.0800 but the Relative Strength Index is rapidly approaching overbought, so a bearish pullback may be next. For the time being the pair is in an uptrend and should be treated as such until a significant low is created.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s highlight is the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show a 0.3% change. This is the main gauge of inflation in the United States and usually has a hefty impact on the currency, with higher values strengthening it. Keep in mind that the WEF Meetings continue in Davos and this may be another reason for increased volatility.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the Pound got a tremendous boost from Prime Minister May’s hawkish speech regarding the Brexit and the pair shot through several resistance levels, traveling more than 350 pips to the upside.

Technical Outlook

Price started to move to the upside and closed the weekly gap even before Prime Minister’s speech but the biggest part of the move was completed during her speech. It is clear that the pair travelled a long distance in a very short amount of time and this usually calls for a pullback to the opposite side. We expect a retrace, possibly back into 1.2325 but overall our bias is bullish considering the latest developments.

Fundamental Outlook

The main release of the day for the Pound will be the British Claimant Count Change, an indicator that tracks changes in the total number of people who asked for benefits due to their unemployed condition. The time of the release is 9:30 am GMT, with a forecast of 4.6K (previous 2.4K); a larger number of unemployed people suggests that consumer spending may decrease in the near future and this usually weakens the currency.