外汇分析 | Gdmfx Brokerage | 每日报告

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR MAKES TIMID ADVANCES, DIRECTION STILL UNCERTAIN

EUR/USD

Forex News: Price action was mixed yesterday and the pair remained confined inside the range between 1.0710 resistance and 1.0650 support. The U.S. Unemployment Claims posted a lower number and this strengthened the US Dollar to some extent.

Technical Outlook

Today we are likely to see a break out of the range that has confined the pair for most of the week and we slightly favour the short side. To the upside, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.0710 create a strong confluence zone and rejection was already seen during yesterday’s session (long upper candle wick). If price will take the path of least resistance, it will move below 1.0650 and possibly into 1.0600 zone.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release their Consumer Sentiment, a survey that gauges the opinions of consumers regarding current and future economic conditions. It acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending and higher values than the forecast 97.9 usually strengthen the US Dollar but the impact is often medium.


GBP/USD

The Pound pushed higher yesterday but the bulls ran out of steam after breaking resistance and the pair dropped below the recently broken level, close to the opening price of the day.

Technical Outlook

Although the pair created a new high yesterday, the push higher was soon nullified so we cannot consider it a true breakout. It looks like the zone between 1.2550 and 1.2600 will reject price lower and we will probably see an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; it must be noted that the Stochastic has reached overbought, thus increasing the chances of a move lower. For today our bias is mostly neutral as direction will probably be affected by the economic releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production numbers come out today at 9:30 am GMT, showing the change in the total value of goods produced by the manufacturing sector. Usually the impact of this indicator is medium-to-high, mostly because manufacturing makes up for about 80% of the total industrial production and a higher number shows increased economic activity. Today’s forecast is a 0.3% change, while the previous was 1.3%.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: TIGHT RANGES, STRONG BREAKOUTS AHEAD

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar had a mixed session Friday, strengthening at first and then erasing all gains on the back of a worse than expected Consumer Sentiment survey. The pair remained between support and resistance, in a relatively tight range.

Technical Outlook

Today we will most likely see a move above 1.0650 or below 1.0610 but the direction is uncertain. The latest candles are showing wicks in both their upper and lower sides, which is a clear sign of indecision but the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the bias is bearish but this doesn’t exclude a push higher. If 1.0650 is broken, we expect to see a touch of the Moving Average, where upside momentum should diminish. To the downside, a break of 1.0610 would open the door for 1.0525 but this target will not be reached during one day unless surprising developments take place.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the economic calendar is light, without any major releases that can affect the pair’s direction so the main mover will be the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

Similar to the other pair, the Cable moved lower in the first part of Friday’s trading session but the losses were erased later in the day.

Technical Outlook

Although the bulls recovered some of the losses, the pair encountered resistance at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and moved lower, ending the week right on 1.2480. If the pair remains below the 50 EMA, today’s destination is probably 1.2420 but if it gets there, we expect a push higher, mostly because that level coincides with the bullish trend line seen on the chart above. A break of the trend line would show that the bears are taking control of medium term price action.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound will not be affected today by economic releases so the focus will be entirely on the technical side unless surprising events take place.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: FED CHAIRWOMAN YELLEN TESTIFIES, POUND AFFECTED BY INFLATION DATA

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the economic calendar was light, without any market-affecting releases but the US Dollar had a great day against its counterparts and the pair dropped below support, exiting the tight range.

Technical Outlook

Now that the pair escaped the channel formed by 1.0650 resistance and 1.0610 support, we expect downside momentum to continue towards 1.0525 but this target will probably not be reached during the course of one day. It must be noted that the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are both very close to their oversold levels and this may push price higher in the form of a retracement but for the short term we expect more downside.

Fundamental Outlook

The first release of the day is the German Preliminary version of the Gross Domestic Product, scheduled at 7:00 am GMT. The GDP is an economy’s main gauge of performance and the Preliminary is the most important version, thus a higher change than the anticipated 0.5% (previous 0.2%) can strengthen the Euro.

At 3:00 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the Senate Banking Committee, on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report. Her answers and attitude can have a high impact on the US Dollar, thus caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

After an early move close to 1.2550 resistance, the bulls took over and controlled the remaining part of yesterday’s session but no notable breakouts occurred.

Technical Outlook

The pair is still in a range and is moving above and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, without a clear direction. We expect an encounter with 1.2420 and with the upwards trend line, where the next direction will be decided. To the upside the first barrier remains 1.2550, which if broken might trigger extended bullish movement.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 9:30 am GMT we take a look at British inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index. The forecast is a 1.9% change and higher numbers will probably generate Pound strength.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: BUCKLE UP FOR FED CHAIR YELLEN’S SECOND ROUND OF TESTIMONIES AND U.S. CPI RELEASE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The German GDP showed a lower number than analysts had forecast and this weakened the Euro early in yesterday’s session. Hawkish comments made by Fed Chair Yellen later strengthened the US Dollar, and all this generated a bearish session.

Technical Outlook

Now the pair has clearly broken 1.0610 support and the bears are in control of short term price action. We expect to see a move into 1.0500 territory but until price gets there, it’s very likely to see a bullish retracement, possibly testing the recently broken support, which may turn into resistance. Both oscillators are trading very close to their oversold limits for a relatively long time and this increases the chance of a move up.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:30 pm GMT we take a look at U.S. inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index (expected change 0.3%) and at the same time the U.S. Retail Sales come out, showing changes in the total value of sales made through retail outlets (forecast 0.1% change). Higher numbers for these indicators usually strengthen the US Dollar.

Fed Chair Yellen will testify today at 3:00 pm GMT, this time before the House Financial Services Committee, and the topic is the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report, same as yesterday. Volatility is likely to increase, thus caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The Pound weakened yesterday when the British CPI posted a lower than expected change and the pair is now trading below 1.2480 but price action remains choppy.

Technical Outlook

Although yesterday’s session belonged to the bears, the pair still hasn’t moved below the bullish trend line seen on the chart above, so it’s very possible to see a bounce higher from here. If the trend line is broken, the pair will probably reach 1.2420, followed by 1.2350 in the following days. To the upside the first notable barrier is represented by the resistance at 1.2550, which rejected price to the pip the last time it was touched.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Claimant Count Change is the day’s main event for the Pound, released at 9:30 am GMT. The indicator shows the change in the number of people who asked for unemployment related benefits and usually has a medium impact on the Pound. Higher values than the forecast 1.1K weaken the currency because they show decreased economic activity.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR BOUNCES AT SUPPORT, BEARISH PRESSURE STILL PRESENT

EUR/USD

Forex News: Both the U.S. CPI and Retail Sales posted a better than expected value and this strengthened the greenback yesterday, bringing the pair right into support. Fed Chair Yellen’s dovish testimony erased almost all the gains later in the day.

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.0525 rejected price higher as soon as it was touched and both the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are very close to their oversold levels so we expect the pair to continue to climb, possibly into 1.0600 zone. If the pair drops below 1.0525, the next destination is 1.0460 but we don’t expect it to be reached before a stronger retracement to the upside is completed.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s main events are release of the U.S. Building Permits and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, both scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. These are leading indicators of economic activity in the construction and manufacturing sectors respectively, and higher values usually strengthen the US Dollar but to a limited extent. The forecast for the Building Permits is 1.23M and for the Manufacturing Index is 18.5.


GBP/USD

Similar to the other pair, the Cable dropped when the U.S. data was released and then erased all losses during Janet Yellen’s testimony. Now the pair is trading above support but below the bullish trend line.

Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below the recently broken uptrend line, our bias is bearish, anticipating a touch of 1.2350. However, it is important to note that yesterday the US Dollar took a hit during Yellen’s testimony speech and this makes the picture less clear so we cannot exclude a move above 1.2480 and above the 50 period EMA. If this is the case, the bulls will probably continue the momentum until 1.2550 is reached again.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today so the pair’s direction will be affected by the U.S. indicators and by the technical aspect.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR GIVES UP GAINS, BRITISH RETAIL SALES EYED

EUR/USD

Forex News: Despite better than expected data for the U.S. economy, the greenback had a rough day yesterday and the pair climbed for the entire session, breaking the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s climb took the pair above the 50 EMA and above 1.0650, making the short term bias bullish. However, if the current impulse will develop into a short term uptrend, we must first see 1.0650 turn into support. If the pair moves up and then returns to retest the mentioned level, it will establish support and it will open the door for a touch of 1.0700 zone. A quick move below 1.0650 will suggest that the bullish move was just a retracement and 1.0610 will be tested again.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is light today for both the Euro and the US Dollar, thus the pair’s direction will be mainly affected by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The Pound showed strength against the US Dollar but later in yesterday’s session, the pair started to show rejection and is now hovering close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, without clear direction.

Technical Outlook

The last two candles on a four hour chart show long wicks in their upper part, which is a sign of rejection. However, currently control doesn’t clearly belong to either side and the pair is mostly ranging, with a slight bearish bias. If price remains above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the day’s target will become 1.2550, otherwise we expect an encounter with 1.2420.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales are today’s only notable release, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a change of 1.0% compared to the previous -1.9%. Sales made at retail levels are an important part of the entire economic activity, thus a higher change than anticipated will probably bring Pound strength.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: BEARISH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES, SUPPORT IN THE WAY

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday’s session belonged almost exclusively to the bears and after finding resistance near 1.0680, the pair dropped to touch the support at 1.0610. The 50 EMA was also broken decisively so we might be looking at a short term downtrend.

Technical Outlook

It looks like the climb above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average seen last week did not generate additional buying pressure and now that the pair has returned below it, the bears might be taking over the pair’s movement. Last week ended right on 1.0610 level but this doesn’t mean that support is holding and today we will get a real sense of direction: if price moves below support, we will probably see another move into 1.0525 in the near future, otherwise we will probably have a ranging day, with price confined between 1.0610 and 1.0650.

Fundamental Outlook

The United States celebrates Presidents’ Day and banks will be closed so we will probably see low volatility during the New York session. Also, no economic indicators will be released on either side of the Atlantic so the entire session may be ranging.


GBP/USD

The British Retail Sales showed a disappointing change of -0.3% (forecast 1.0%) and this was one of the main reasons why the pair had a bearish session Friday, moving below 1.2420.

Technical Outlook

Although the latest impulse is bearish, the pair is ranging from a longer term perspective and 1.2420 support is not decisively broken so a move up cannot be excluded. However, we slightly favour the short side for today, mostly because the effect of the disappointing Retail Sales figure will probably extend to the early stages of this week. The first notable support is located at 1.2350, while resistance sits around 1.2480.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the other two currencies, today the Pound will not be affected by economic releases, so the main focus will be on the technical side.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: POUND IN THE SPOTLIGHT: BRITISH INFLATION REPORT HEARINGS

EUR/USD

Forex News: As expected, yesterday’s session was slow and price remained confined in a tight range after failing to break the support at 1.0610. Most of the choppiness was due to the United States banks being closed in celebration of Presidents’ Day.

Technical Outlook

It looks like the pair is struggling to find the next direction but both the buyers and sellers are hesitant at the moment. The main levels to watch are 1.0610 as support and 1.0650 as resistance but an important role will be played by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, which currently is moving downwards and is above price, thus making the bias bearish. Once we will see a strong break of one of the horizontal levels or the EMA, direction will become clearer but as long as price stays between them, our bias is neutral.

Fundamental Outlook

We have another lacklustre day ahead, with the only notable release being the European Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, scheduled at 9:00 am GMT. This is a measure of economic health, derived from the opinions of purchasing managers, that usually brings Euro strength if it posts values above expectations. The forecast for today is 55.0 but keep in mind this is a medium impact indicator.


GBP/USD

The bears couldn’t keep the pair below 1.2420 support yesterday and the buyers took control of price action, climbing into resistance; however, the pair is not out of the range and control doesn’t clearly belong to wither side.

Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading between 1.2420 support and 1.2480 resistance, our bias is neutral. Nevertheless, it must be noted that to the upside we have three important elements that can push price lower: the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the level at 1.2480 and a bearish trend line. If price will choose the path of least resistance, we will see a bounce from here and a move into 1.2420 but a break of the current resistance zone would show bullish strength and will make 1.2550 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 10:00 am GMT, Bank of England Governor Carney and MPC members will testify on inflation and economic outlook before the Treasury Committee of the Parliament. These hearings have the potential to be a strong market mover for the Pound and will be the main event of the day but keep in mind that price action may be irregular during the speeches.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS MIXED SIGNALS AGAINST COUNTERPARTS. FOMC MINUTES EYED FOR RATE HIKE CLUES

EUR/USD

Forex News: A much needed breakout took place yesterday on the back of better than forecast European economic data. The pair dropped to touch the important support at 1.0525 where we expect a pause or possible bounce higher.

Technical Outlook

Last time the pair visited 1.0525 area, it bounced strongly and it’s very possible to see the same type of behaviour again. This view is also supported by the oversold condition of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index, so even if we will see price move below 1.0525, the extent should be limited and a pullback should soon follow. Overall our bias is bearish as long as the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The German IFO Business Climate comes out at 9:00 am GMT, showing the opinions of about 7,000 businesses regarding current economic conditions as well as a 6-month outlook. The impact is medium-to-high and usually, numbers above the forecast strengthen the Euro; today’s anticipated value is 109.6 vs. 109.8 prior.

Later in the day, at 7:00 pm GMT the Fed will release the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which contain details about the latest rate vote and possibly hints about the next rate hike. Usually the Minutes have a strong impact on the US Dollar only if they offer clues about the next rate hike and if that is the case, we expect strong movement on all USD pairs.


GBP/USD

The Inflation Report Hearings had a surprisingly low impact on the Pound but later in yesterday’s session the pair showed increased volatility and jumped after another failed attempt to break support.

Technical Outlook

Once again the US Dollar showed that it lacks the strength to break support and the pair immediately jumped higher, testing the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and coming very close to horizontal resistance and to the bearish trend line. Once the bearish trend line is broken (by then the other 2 elements will be probably broken as well), we expect price to move into 1.2550. Of course, given the current stalemate, it’s not out of the question to see a move back into support, so our view is currently neutral, expecting a clear breakout.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event for the Pound is the British Second Estimate Gross Domestic Product, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a change of 0.6%, same as previous. The GDP is an economy’s main gauge of performance but the version released today is less important than the Preliminary version released a month ago; nonetheless, values above expectations can strengthen the currency and the opposite is valid for numbers below forecast.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STILL WITHOUT POWER, DESPITE HINTS OF ‘FAIRLY SOON’ RATE HIKE

EUR/USD

Forex News: After a small pause at 1.0525, the bears managed to break the level yesterday, ahead of the FOMC Minutes release but the pair returned above it although some FOMC members said that a rate hike may come fairly soon.

Technical Outlook

The FOMC Minutes also showed that some members fear downside inflation risks and the pair moved above the recently broken level at 1.0525. The oversold condition of the two oscillators gave an early warning about this potential bounce higher but the overall bias remains bearish. Probably the pair will continue higher, into the 50 period EMA but if it gets there, we expect it to start moving to the downside again.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we have a lackluster session, with the U.S. Unemployment Claims as the main focus. The indicator is released at 1:30 pm GMT and is expected to show a number of 242K unemployed people during the previous week. A higher number suggests that economic activity is slowing down and usually this means the US Dollar will weaken; however, the indicator is released each week and this somewhat limits its impact.


GBP/USD

Despite a better than expected British GDP reading, the pair dropped in the early stages of yesterday’s session but the FOMC Minutes brought mixed movement and the pair did not exit the range.

Technical Outlook

The choppy movement is likely to continue until 1.2480 or 1.2420 will be broken and re-tested from above or below, respectively. Our bias remains neutral until one of these levels is broken; the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is almost flat, confirming the lack of determination showed by both the bulls and bears.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major releases on the British economic calendar today so the direction will be mostly decided by the technical aspect.