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FOREX NEWS: EURO STEALS THE SPOTLIGHT, PREPARING FOR ECB PRESS CONFERENCE. POUND STILL VOLATILE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Consumer Price Index released yesterday matched analysts’ expectations and the event did not generate a strong impact; however, the pair retraced lower but speed of movement slowed down considerably.

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.0710 rejected price lower but the bearish move failed before 1.0650 could be broken. This level can be considered support now, because price was rejected from its close vicinity and overall the picture remains bullish, so if support holds, we expect a break of 1.0710 but a lot will depend today on the ECB decision regarding interest rates and on ECB President’s press conference. The technical aspect will be overshadowed by the fundamental and caution is recommended.

Fundamental Outlook

As mentioned above, today the ECB will release their interest rate decision; the event is scheduled at 12:45 pm GMT and although no change is expected (currently 0.00%), volatility is likely to increase. Forty-five minutes later, at 1:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold his usual press conference, discussing the reasons behind the rate decision and answering journalists’ questions. This second part is known to generate strong and possibly erratic movement, depending on his answers and attitude, but a prediction cannot be made so, as always, use caution or wait until the conference is over.


GBP/USD

The Pound retraced lower yesterday, as it was anticipated after the strong climb seen a day before, but it’s still trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the bias is still bullish.

Technical Outlook

On an Hourly chart the pair is approaching the 50 period EMA and this, combined with the vicinity of the potential support at 1.2250, will probably generate another push higher. The first upper barrier is 1.2325, followed by 1.2385; the latter was breached twice but price soon returned below it, so we still consider this zone resistance. As an alternate scenario, we may see an extended move lower, into the four-hour 50 EMA but as long as price is trading above it, our bias remains bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major releases scheduled for the Pound but any Brexit-related talks or new developments may generate strong movement, so at the moment the pair is considered high-risk.

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FOREX NEWS: BUCKLE UP FOR A US DOLLAR STORM: PRESIDENT-ELECT TRUMP DELIVERS INAUGURATION SPEECH

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the Euro weakened during Mario Draghi’s Q&A section of the press conference and the pair has now dropped below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below horizontal support.

Technical Outlook

If the bears can keep the pair below the Moving Average and below 1.0610 support, the uptrend may be coming to an end and the first target will become the support at 1.0525. For the time being the current support zone is not clearly broken because price did not re-test it from below; such a possible re-test may happen on the lower time frames and it would still be valid but until that happens, we do not consider the break a true one. The oscillators are moving to the downside, with good momentum and this increases the chances of an extended move south.

Fundamental Outlook

Today U.S. President-Elect Trump will deliver his Presidential Inauguration speech in Washington DC. Some sources have 2:00 pm GMT as the scheduled time, while others have not yet posted the exact time but what is almost certain is that his speech will generate a lot of volatility for the US Dollar. Use extra caution during the event.


GBP/USD

The pair showed bullish price action yesterday, bouncing at support but failing to break resistance. Overall we had a normal trading session, without major developments.

Technical Outlook

The perfect bounce at 1.2250 shows that the bulls still have what it takes to continue the strong impulse started earlier this week but 1.2325 resistance is still holding for now. Once this level is broken, we expect another test of 1.2385 zone, otherwise the pair will probably move back down into 1.2250 and into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The fundamental aspect will play a major role for today’s direction.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Retail Sales numbers are released, showing changes in the total value of sales made through retail outlets. The indicator is considered a high-impact one and usually a higher number than the anticipated -0.1%, generates Pound strength. Later in the day, the pair will be directly affected by President-Elect Trump’s inauguration speech.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR WEAKENS, PAIRS TEST RESISTANCE LEVELS

EUR/USD

Forex News: Surprisingly, President Trump’s inauguration speech delivered Friday did not create the strong volatility we anticipated but it weakened the US Dollar nonetheless and allowed the pair to reach resistance.

Technical Outlook

Price bounced at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and is now facing a strong barrier to the upside, represented by the level at 1.0710. If this barrier can be surpassed today, the next target will become 1.0800 but we don’t expect it to be reached during the course of one day. On the other hand, if the bulls cannot break resistance, the pair will probably drop back into the 50 period EMA or it will start to move sideways, in a tight range.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar doesn’t hold any important releases and this may generate slow, ranging price action, with the technical aspect being the most important.


GBP/USD

Friday’s movement was controlled by the bulls and the main market mover was President Trump’s speech but the Pound was already strong as seen earlier in the week.

Technical Outlook

The level at 1.2250 acted as strong support and rejected price higher twice during last week but also a strong level is 1.2385. The latest impulse is bullish so we expect a break of the mentioned resistance; if this happens, the next move will probably reach the resistance at 1.2480 but this will probably take more than a day and price will also retrace before reaching that target. A bounce lower from the current price will take the pair into 1.2325 and possibly into the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom also has a lacklustre economic calendar for today so we don’t expect major developments or substantial moves.

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FOREX NEWS: UK’S HIGH COURT DUE TO ANNOUNCE BREXIT-RELATED RULING

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair continued the bullish impulse started Friday and moved above the resistance at 1.0710. The fundamental environment was lacklustre and didn’t have a major role to play in yesterday’s price action.

Technical Outlook

After moving above 1.0710 resistance, the pair returned lower to re-test the level; if this previous resistance can turn into support, we will probably see a move higher, possibly into 1.0800 in the short to medium term (today or tomorrow). On the other hand, a quick drop below 1.0710 would show that the break was false and that the uptrend may be coming to an end soon. This would also make 1.0650 the first bearish target and would take price in close vicinity to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT we take a look at the health of the German Manufacturing and Services sectors with the release of the respective Purchasing Managers’ Indexes. Usually the indicators don’t have a huge impact but higher values show optimism among purchasing managers and strengthen the Euro; the Manufacturing PMI is expected to show 55.5 and the Services PMI, 54.6.


GBP/USD

The Pound strengthened for the most part of yesterday’s trading session and the pair climbed to touch resistance. Overall price action was bullish but price stalled at resistance.

Technical Outlook

The pair is now facing an important resistance at 1.2480, with the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index approaching overbought levels. This increases the chance of a retracement lower but the bulls have been strong lately, so a move past the mentioned resistance will take the pair into 1.2550. To the downside the first support and target is represented by 1.2385; if the pair reaches that level, we expect it to bounce higher.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the United Kingdom High Court will decide if the Government can trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty without the approval of the Parliament. The article would initiate the Brexit and this would probably have a very high impact on the Pound. Whatever the High Court decides, the Pound will probably move erratically at the time so we recommend caution.

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FOREX NEWS: UPTREND CONTINUES, US DOLLAR STILL SHAKY AGAINST COUNTERPARTS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a choppy session yesterday but the bias remained bullish although the economic data was mixed, showing a higher value for the German Manufacturing PMI and a lower value for the Services sector.

Technical Outlook

Price remained above the resistance turned support at 1.0710 and seems headed towards the next resistance at 1.0800. However, some bearish signs have already appeared: the candles show long wicks and the Stochastic is trading above its 80 level, showing an overbought condition. As long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias remains bullish but a retracement is needed and it’s very possible to happen today.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s highlight is the release of the German IFO Business Climate, a survey of about 7,000 businesses, which tries to gauge the respondents’ opinions regarding economic conditions and expectations for the next 6 months. A higher number than the forecast suggests optimism and usually strengthens the Euro. The time of release is 9:00 am GMT and the anticipated value is 111.3.


GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s High Court ruled yesterday that the Government must seek the Parliament’s approval before triggering Article 50. This initially created Pound strength, followed by weakness but overall movement was irregular and without a clear bias.

Technical Outlook

After a very close encounter with 1.2550 resistance the pair dropped below 1.2480 and now the candles show long wicks, which is a sign of indecision. If the bears can keep price below 1.2480, we are likely to see a touch of the potential support at 1.2385 and possibly of the 50 period EMA; otherwise, if price moves quickly above 1.2480, the bulls will remain in control and we will see another test of 1.2550.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound’s economic calendar is light today, without any major releases, thus price direction will be mainly affected by the technical aspect.

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FOREX NEWS: TODAY’S MARKET MOVERS: U.S NEW HOME SALES, BRITISH GDP

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a mixed trading session yesterday and no significant advances were made by either side. The support at 1.0710 was tested again and once more it rejected price higher.

Technical Outlook

After the re-test of 1.0710 support, the pair moved up into the short term resistance created around 1.0770 but there the bullish impulse faded and some of the earlier gains were erased. This is very likely to be the start of a ranging period, with price confined between 1.0800 and 1.0710 because the uptrend seems to slow down but on the other hand, the bears cannot break immediate support. However, as long as price is trading above the 50 EMA, the bias is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. New Home Sales will be released today at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to show an annualized number of 585K. The indicator acts as a gauge of health for the U.S. house market but the impact is usually medium-to-low; however, under normal circumstances, numbers above expectations strengthen the US Dollar and take the pair lower.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued to strengthen yesterday and now the pair is trading above 1.2250 but the oscillators are starting to show overbought so a retracement might follow.

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.2550 was the last barrier before the key level at 1.2725 and now the US Dollar lacks the strength to regain control. The next medium term target is the resistance level we just mentioned but until price gets there, it will probably retrace lower; in the short term we expect a pullback to 1.2550, followed by another rally. The Relative Strength Index is approaching its overbought level, increasing the chance of a pullback.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is today’s highlight for the Pound. The GDP is considered the main gauge of economic performance and this version is the most important out of the three (Preliminary, Second Estimate and Final); the time of the release is 9:30 am GMT and the anticipated change is 0.5% compared to the previous 0.6%. A higher value shows increased economic activity and usually strengthens the currency.

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FOREX NEWS: PULLBACKS IN AN UPTREND. A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO BUY?

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session belonged to the bears and the uptrend is now going through a retracement that brought the pair below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Technical Outlook

After several failed attempts to move above 1.0770, the pair dropped through 1.0710 support and through the 50 period EMA, putting the short term control in favour of the bears. The next target is the support at 1.0650 but it must be noted that a significant low was not yet formed so the pair is still in an uptrend. If today price will return above the 50 EMA, we will probably see uptrend resumption with 1.0770 as first destination.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Dollar will be affected today by two important indicators: the first is the Advance Gross Domestic Product, which is considered the economy’s main performance gauge and the second is the Durable Goods Orders, an indicator that shows changes in the value of purchase orders for goods with a life expectancy of at least 3 years. Both indicators are released at 1:30 pm GMT and values above forecast usually strengthen the currency. The GDP is expected to show a 2.1% change while the Durable Goods Orders have a forecast of 2.7% change.


GBP/USD

Although the pair is in a clear uptrend, yesterday it showed a bearish day, retracing lower to the last level of importance. This was a much needed “breather” and overall the bulls remain in control.

Technical Outlook

The current move down should be considered a retracement in an uptrend and not a reversal, meaning that probably the bulls will step back in and take price higher again. The level at 1.2550 acts as support and is already showing signs of rejecting price higher; the first bullish target is the resistance located at 1.2675, created yesterday. If the current move south continues, we don’t expect it to extend below 1.2480 and the 50 period EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important news releases for today, so the pair will be affected by the U.S. events mentioned earlier and by the technical aspect.

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FOREX NEWS: KICKING OFF THE WEEK WITH GERMAN INFLATION DATA

EUR/USD

Forex News: After a close encounter with support, the pair started to move higher Friday; part of the US Dollar weakness was generated by a disappointing GDP figure: actual 1.9%, anticipated 2.1%.

Technical Outlook

The uptrend is slowing down as shown by the failed attempts to move past 1.0770 but the sellers seem to lack the strength to break 1.0650. Also, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is flat, indicating that the pair might be entering a ranging period. The levels to watch today are 1.0710 as resistance and 1.0650 as support but if neither is broken early, we may get a choppy session.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:00 pm GMT the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index is released; this is the main gauge of inflation and can strengthen the Euro if it posts a higher change than the forecast -0.5% (previous 0.7%). German economy is an important pillar of the entire Eurozone and this is the main reason why the indicator usually has a strong impact on the single currency.


GBP/USD

Friday the bears took control of price movement and the pair dropped below support but no major advances were made after that; from a short-to-medium term the pair is still in an uptrend.

Technical Outlook

After breaching 1.2550 to the downside the bears lost steam and price started ranging in close vicinity of the mentioned level. Neither side is in clear control of short term price movement but the bearish retracement might extend into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, where we expect the buyers to step back in and take the pair higher; 1.2480 is also close to the 50 EMA and together will form a confluence zone which will be tough to break.

Fundamental Outlook

The British economic calendar is light today, without any notable economic releases, thus the pair’s direction will be mostly influenced by the technical side.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STRIKES BACK. THE END OF THE UPTREND?

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s German inflation data disappointed by showing a -0.6% change and this contributed to a session dominated by the bears. Support was breached but most of the Euro losses were erased later in the day.

Technical Outlook

The pair has now descended below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the medium term uptrend seems to come to an end. However, the last four hour candle is showing a long tail, which is a clear sign of rejection so the support at 1.0650 is not decisively broken yet. This means that we could see a resurgence of the uptrend and if the bulls can keep price above 1.0650, we will probably see an encounter with the 50 period EMA. If the pair doesn’t move above this dynamic resistance, we will probably see more downside movement.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:00 am GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech at a conference in Frankfurt, organized by the European Central Bank and the European Commission. His speeches are always a potential reason for increased volatility, thus caution is recommended.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey is released, showing the opinions of about 5,000 households regarding economic and business conditions and job availability. A number higher than the forecast 112.6 shows optimism and usually strengthens the greenback.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s session belonged to the bears who managed to take the pair almost 100 pips lower, below immediate support and into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Technical Outlook

The pair is facing a strong support zone created by the confluence between 1.2480 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If the bears manage to break this zone, it will be a testament of their strength, so we expect to see further downside action if that happens (possibly into 1.2420); on the other hand, a bounce higher from here would show that the bearish move was just a retracement in an uptrend and will likely mean that 1.2550 will be tested again.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a light day ahead in terms of economic releases, thus the main focus will be on the technical aspect and on the U.S. consumer survey.

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FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON A WEAK US DOLLAR: FED RATE DECISION AND FIRST LOOK AT U.S. JOBS DATA

EUR/USD

Forex News: Early during yesterday’s session the pair moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the rest of the day belonged to the bulls on the back of a weak US Dollar. Part of the weakness was due to a worse than expected U.S. Consumer Confidence survey (actual 111.8, forecast 112.6) but also comments made by U.S. President Trump.

Technical Outlook

Price surpassed 1.0770 resistance and is now testing 1.0800, which is an important technical resistance but also an important psychological level (round number). We expect to see a bearish retracement soon but now the uptrend is renewed and the US Dollar doesn’t show any signs of recovering soon, so after the said retracement, we expect the pair to move above 1.0800, into 1.0850.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is a very important day for the US Dollar as we take a first look at U.S. jobs situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, scheduled at 1:15 pm GMT and expected to show a number of 165K compared to the previous 153K. The indicator tracks changes in the number of employed people, excluding Government and the farming industry. A higher number is beneficial to the US Dollar but the impact is not as big as the Non-Farm Payrolls released later this week.

At 7:00 pm GMT the FOMC will release their Statement containing the rate decision and the reasons that determined the decision; more importantly, the document may contain hints about the next rate hike and if this is the case, we will likely see increased activity on all USD pairs. The rate is currently set at <0.75% and is not expected to change today.


GBP/USD

After an almost perfect bounce at 1.2420 the Pound strengthened and the pair begun to move to the upside, generating a trading session controlled almost totally by the bulls.

Technical Outlook

The pair is approaching the minor resistance at 1.2600 and once it gets there, we expect to see some sort of retracement lower considering that yesterday price travelled a long distance straight up, without any pullbacks. Overall the bias is bullish, with a weak Dollar, a strong Pound and price trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average after a strong bounce at support. The levels to watch today are 1.2550 as potential support and 1.2600 as immediate resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI is released today at 9:30 am GMT, with an anticipated value of 55.9; this is a survey of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector, which acts as a leading indicator of economic health. Usually numbers that surpass expectations strengthen the Pound but the impact is not always huge.