外汇分析 | Gdmfx Brokerage | 每日报告

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: BEARISH PRESSURE MOUNTS, AHEAD OF EUROPEAN PMIS, U.S. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar remained mostly indifferent to Yellen’s speech and to the better than expected figure posted by the U.S. New Home Sales. All this combined with the lack of major news from the Euro side, generated a slow and choppy trading session.

Technical Outlook

It’s becoming clearer that the bullish momentum has faded as the buyers failed to reach 1.0830 and the candles started to show long wicks in their upper side. However, the sellers also lack strength and determination so currently there is no short-term clear bias but as long as the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is below price and angled upwards, the overall trend is up.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT two medium-impact indicators are released: the European Manufacturing PMI (expected reading 55.3) and Services PMI (expected reading 55.4). These are surveys of purchasing managers that focus on the health of the two sectors and usually strengthen the Euro if they show a better than expected reading but the releases tend to be overlooked if the actual figure matches or comes very close to analysts’ expectations.

On the US Dollar side we have the Durable Goods Orders, released at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a change of 1.1%. The impact is medium to high, with numbers above forecast strengthening the greenback.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued its climb yesterday, fuelled by better than expected British Retail Sales (actual 1.4%; forecast 0.4%). Resistance is clearly broken but the oscillators are still overbought.

Technical Outlook

The pair is trading above the resistance at 1.2480 but most of yesterday’s move was generated by the solid British Retail Sales reading and from a strictly technical point of view, the need for a retracement lower has increased. Both oscillators are overbought and price has travelled a long distance without a proper pullback so today we expect a move south. The levels of interest are 1.2550 as resistance and 1.2480 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by major economic releases, so the technical aspect and the U.S. Durable Goods Orders will be the main factors that will affect the pair’s direction.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE HOLDS, US DOLLAR PUSHES BOTH PAIRS LOWER

EUR/USD

Forex News: German PMI surveys released Friday showed better readings than analysts had expected and on the other hand the US Dollar remained mostly unaffected by the Durable Goods Orders. All this generated another bullish session, with the pair testing resistance.

Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.0800 was again breached but the bulls couldn’t push price higher, which is a sign of weakness and an early indication that we will probably see a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average today. As an alternate scenario, a continuation of the bullish move will probably extend into 1.0830, possibly 1.0850 but we don’t expect the upper resistance to be broken.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate survey comes out, showing the opinions of about 7,000 German businesses regarding current economic conditions as well as a 6-month outlook. The expected figure is 111.2 and usually the Euro is positively impacted by numbers that exceed the forecast.


GBP/USD

For the most part of Friday’s trading session the pair moved sideways after establishing resistance at 1.2530. The overall bias remains bullish but the current move looks like the beginning of a deeper retracement.

Technical Outlook

If the bears manage to break 1.2480 and re-test it from below, thus establishing the level as resistance, then the next target will become the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, which will probably climb above 1.2420 by the time price descends to touch it. It must be noted however that the pair is in a clear uptrend from a medium term perspective and this means that once the 50 EMA is touched, we may see rejection and a potential move up.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by any important economic releases today, so the technical aspect will be the main market mover.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR ON THE ROPES AGAIN, PULLBACKS STILL A NECESSITY

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar was battered into a corner during yesterday’s trading session, following healthcare discussions in the U.S. over the weekend. The Euro benefited from a higher reading for the German IFO survey and all this took the pair significantly higher.

Technical Outlook

The week opened with a gap and the pair shot through 1.0830 and 1.0850 resistances, so the expected retracement lower didn’t occur. The move was mostly generated by fundamental (political) reasons and now a pullback is even more likely, considering that the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are in deep overbought territory and the pair travelled a long distance without retracement. It must also be noted that weekly gaps are usually closed – meaning that price will return to the place where the gap originated – but the timeframe for this potential move is not known.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the Conference Board Inc. will release the U.S. Consumer Confidence, a survey of about 5,000 households, focused on their opinion regarding economic conditions. If consumers show confidence in their financial situation, they are likely to spend more, thus boosting consumer spending which represents an important part of overall economic activity. The expected value for today is 113.9 and higher values usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

US Dollar weakness was seen against most of its counterparts and the Pound was no exception, thus the pair climbed strongly yesterday, for almost the entire trading session.

Technical Outlook

After establishing 1.2480 as support the pair rallied and broke through 1.2550, marking an important victory for the bulls. However, even before this last climb, price was in need of a retracement and now the chance for a move lower has increased, considering how much it moved to the upside but also the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index. These factors make us believe that today we will see a pullback that will have 1.2550 as target. To the upside the first level of importance is located at 1.2675 but we don’t believe it will be touched before a move down occurs.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today, so the U.S. Confidence survey and the technical aspect will be the main market movers.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: RETRACEMENTS UNDERWAY, SUPPORT TARGETED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Consumer Confidence survey released yesterday showed a reading of 125.6, above analysts’ expectation of just 113.9 but surprisingly the release didn’t create strong movement and the pair drifted sideways almost the entire day.

Technical Outlook

The pair created minor resistance at 1.0905 and is now testing 1.0850 from above, trying to establish it as support. If the level will become support, pushing price higher, we expect to see another encounter with 1.0905 zone but it must be noted that the weekly gap is still open and the pair is still in need of a deeper retracement. The uptrend is still strong but our bias is bearish for today, anticipating a move below 1.0850.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Pending Home Sales are today’s only notable release, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a change of 2.3%. The indicator shows changes in the total number of houses under contract to be sold and usually has a low-to-medium impact on the US Dollar, with higher numbers strengthening it.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s trading session belonged to the bears and the pair dropped below 1.2550, partly helped by a better than expected U.S. Consumer Confidence survey that strengthened the US Dollar and took price below the previous resistance.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday the pair printed a lower high and broke below 1.2550, which was prior resistance. This type of behaviour shows that a deeper retracement is underway and makes 1.2480 the first target, followed by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If the pair reaches these targets, we expect it to climb again, considering that a clear uptrend is still in place.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Bank of England will release the Net Lending to Individuals, a report that shows changes in the total credit issued to consumers. A higher value shows that consumer spending is likely to increase in the future and usually this strengthens the Pound but the indicator is known to have just a medium impact. The forecast for today is 4.9 Billion, compared to the previous 4.8 Billion.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: PAIRS UNDER HEAVY SELLING PRESSURE AHEAD OF GERMAN INFLATION DATA AND UNITED STATES GDP

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Pending Home Sales released yesterday showed a solid reading, increasing by 5.5% (forecast 2.3%) but the US Dollar started to strengthen even before the release, breaking several support levels as well as the 50 EMA.

Technical Outlook

For quite a while we expected a move lower, due to the overbought position of the two oscillators but also because weekly gaps tend to be closed (price returns to where the gap originated). Now the gap is closed and the retracement complete but considering that the 50 period Exponential Moving Average was broken decisively, we may see this pullback turn into a full scale reversal. If the pair cannot climb above the 50 EMA and if the line turns into resistance, we may see a drop into 1.0700 zone, otherwise uptrend resumption is underway.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:00 pm GMT the Euro will be affected by the release of the German Preliminary Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation in Germany and accounts for a big part of overall European inflation. The expected change is 0.4% and readings above forecast usually generate Euro strength.

On the US Dollar side we have the U.S. Final Gross Domestic Product, an indicator that shows changes in the value of goods and services produced by an economy and acts as the main gauge of economic health. The expected change is 2.0% and higher numbers are beneficial to the greenback.


GBP/USD

The sellers stepped back in, taking the pair below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and both oscillators moved out of the overbought territory where they previously spent a long time. The pair is now showing signs of recovery but signals are mixed.

Technical Outlook

After breaking the 50 EMA, price touched the support at 1.2385 and bounced higher, into the resistance at 1.2480. These levels will be important for short to medium term movement because rejection is visible at both of them, so we may get a trading session with price trapped between them. If 1.2385 will be broken to the downside, we can consider the move a reversal of the uptrend and we can expect to see lower prices in the medium term.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major economic releases today, thus the technical aspect and the U.S. GDP will be the main drivers behind price action.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS MIXED SIGNALS FOR THE LAST TRADING DAY OF THE WEEK

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar had another strong day against the Euro, fuelled by a better than expected GDP, while the single currency took a blow from thin German inflation data, so the pair moved closer to support.

Technical Outlook

Price remained below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.0775, showing that we may be dealing with a reversal, not a simple retracement. For today we expect an encounter with 1.0710 support but it must be noted that now both the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic have become oversold, signalling that a bounce at support may happen. Also, the pair has been in an uptrend from the beginning of the month and this increases the chance or another move up.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 9:00 am GMT we take a look at European inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index. Because the German CPI, which accounts for a big part of overall EU inflation, was released yesterday, the impact of today’s announcement may be somewhat muted but either way, numbers above the forecast 1.8% usually generate Euro strength.


GBP/USD

The Pound rallied yesterday, taking the pair above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above 1.2480 resistance, thus marking the end of the bearish retracement.

Technical Outlook

The bounce at 1.2385 followed by the bullish break of the 50 EMA shows that the Pound is not ready to give up control just yet and makes 1.2550 the first target for today. It is very possible to see a re-test of 1.2480 from above and if the pair bounces higher from there, it means that the level is now support, a thing that will increase the possibility of a break through 1.2550.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Pound will be affected by two important releases: the Final version of the Gross Domestic Product (expected value 0.7%) and the Current Account (expected value -16.3 Billion). The first indicator is the main gauge of economic performance and the second measures the difference between imported and exported goods and services. Higher numbers for one or both indicators usually strengthen the Pound, taking the pair higher.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: MANUFACTURING DATA HOLDS TODAY’S HEADLINES

EUR/USD

Forex News: Eurozone’s main gauge of inflation released Friday showed a disappointing change of 1.5% (expected 1.8%) and this allowed the US Dollar to drag the pair below support, for yet another bearish session.

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.0680 is now broken but both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are clearly oversold and the pair travelled a long distance without pullback. This indicates that a move up will soon follow, possibly after 1.0630 is touched but as long as the pair remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bearish and we expect another drop after the mentioned retracement.

Fundamental Outlook

At 2:00 pm GMT the United States will release the Manufacturing PMI, a survey of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector, focused on the economic health of said sector. Usually, a higher reading than forecast shows optimism and strengthens the US Dollar but the impact is low-to-medium; today’s forecast is 57.2 while the previous value was 57.7.


GBP/USD

The Pound was boosted Friday by a better than expected Current Account value and this was partly the reason why the pair moved higher throughout the session.

Technical Outlook

After failing to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair shot up and reached the resistance located at 1.2550, leaving us with a classic ‘bounce-or-break’ scenario. A break of this level would increase the chance of a move into 1.2615 (probably this target will not be reached in one day), while a bounce lower would mean that the pair is headed for the 50 EMA again. The PMI surveys released today for the Pound and US Dollar will play an important role for the outcome of the mentioned scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable release for the Pound is the British Manufacturing PMI, which as mentioned above, is a survey of purchasing managers, focused on economic and business conditions in the manufacturing sector. The release is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and the forecast is 55.1, a small increase from the previous 54.6.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: PAIRS TRAPPED BETWEEN SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE. BREAKOUTS IN THE MAKING

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair had a lacklustre and ranging day, without any special developments to either side. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI matched analysts’ forecast and this contributed to the stalemate seen yesterday.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action confirmed 1.0680 as short term resistance but the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are starting to climb out of oversold territory and this increases the chance of a move up, towards the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If the pair breaks 1.0680 but stops at 1.0710, we expect a drop into 1.0630, otherwise we will probably see a stronger move north.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no important releases on the Euro and US Dollar economic calendar so the deciding factor for price direction will be the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing data released yesterday showed a disappointing reading of just 54.2 (expected 55.1) and this was one of the reasons why the Pound weakened, allowing the bears to take the pair into support.

Technical Outlook

The bulls encountered heavy resistance at 1.2550, which is a level that continues to be of importance for short and medium term movement. However, the pair is having trouble breaking through the confluence zone created by 1.2480 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, so we may be facing the start of a ranging period, with price trapped between 1.2550 and 1.2480. A strong break of either one of these levels will probably decide the next direction but until that happens, our view is neutral.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT and may be a catalyst for a break of one of the levels mentioned earlier. This survey is derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the construction sector and shows their optimism regarding business conditions in said sector; the expected figure is 52.5, same as previous and usually a higher number strengthens the Pound.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: BIG DAY FOR THE US DOLLAR: EMPLOYMENT DATA AND FOMC MEETING MINUTES

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro-Dollar had another slow day, mostly because neither currency was affected by major news releases. Price drifted lower, approaching support but movement was choppy and without clear energy.

Technical Outlook

The bearish momentum has slowed down considerably and it appears like the support at 1.0630 will not be broken before a retracement to the upside occurs. The first resistance is located at 1.0680, followed by 1.0710 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but a break of these levels will depend on the fundamental side which will steal the spotlight today and will heavily influence price direction.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look at United States jobs data with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, a report that shows changes in the number of employed people, excluding the Government and the farming sector. The indicator is less important than the Non-Farm Payrolls that will be released later in the week, but a higher number of employed people will strengthen the US Dollar under normal circumstances; today’s forecast is 191K, a drop from the previous 298K.

Later in the day, at 6:00 pm GMT the FOMC will release the Minutes of their latest Meeting, containing details about the reasons that determined the latest rate decision. Usually this release creates strong movement if it contains hints about future rate increases or other important monetary policy decisions.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued to weaken yesterday, partly due to thin Construction data. The first level of support was clearly broken but the bears ran out of steam at the next level and now bullish pressure starts to mount.

Technical Outlook

After breaking 1.2480 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair quickly moved into 1.2420 where it bounced higher. Today we will likely see another encounter with 1.2480 but if the bulls fail to break this level, price will probably drop into 1.2385 and possibly 1.2350. The US Dollar will be affected by two important releases and the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index is the last survey of the week for the Pound, released at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a value of 53.5. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health and can strengthen the Pound but the impact is often limited if the actual number comes close to analysts’ forecast.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: BULLISH PRESSURE MOUNTS AS SUPPORT HOLDS AND US DOLLAR WEAKENS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair remained below resistance ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes but the document didn’t show any clear signs of the Fed wanting to hike more often than already planned and this was mostly perceived as dovish by market participants so the pair showed again rejection at support.

Technical Outlook

It is clear now that 1.0630 support is holding and rejecting the pair higher, so we expect to see a move above 1.0680 and into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average before the mentioned support can be broken. If the confluence zone created by the 50 EMA and 1.0710 doesn’t hold, it would show that the pair is set to climb even further, possibly towards 1.0800 zone of resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

The day lacks major releases, but the most notable one is the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, which is a document that reveals details of the latest ECB Meeting and the reasons behind their latest rate decision. The release usually has a medium impact, which can become stronger if hints about a rate change are revealed; the scheduled time is 11:30 am GMT.


GBP/USD

The Pound strengthened due to better than expected Services PMI and The FOMC Meeting Minutes didn’t help the Dollar recover the losses, so the pair had a bullish day, bouncing at support and breaking the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Technical Outlook

Considering that the sellers tried several times to break 1.2420 support zone but the pair bounced higher, we expect to see a move into 1.2550 in the near future. For now price is in a consolidation phase and neither side in in clear control from a longer term perspective but for the short term it looks like the bulls are winning the battle. As long as price remains above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bullish, expecting an extended move north.

Fundamental Outlook

The main price driver today will be the technical aspect, mainly because the currencies in the pair will not be affected by important releases.