外汇分析 | Gdmfx Brokerage | 每日报告

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FOREX NEWS: BRITISH RETAIL SALES: AN EXCLAMATION MARK ON A HUGE WEEK

EUR/USD

Forex News: After establishing 1.0710 as support, the pair continued higher yesterday, touching the resistance at 1.0775. U.S. Manufacturing data was worse than anticipated and this contributed to the climb.

Technical Outlook

As anticipated, the bulls remained in control and the pair re-tested the previously broken resistance (1.0710), bouncing higher and thus turning the level into support. The resistance at 1.0775 now stands in front of rising price and as seen from yesterday’s price action, the pair reacts to this level so we may get another retracement to the downside. As long as the pair keeps making higher lows and higher highs, our view is bullish but the Relative Strength Index is showing bearish divergence and this increases the chance of a move down.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:30 am GMT, Germany will release their Services and Manufacturing PMIs, which are both leading indicators of economic health and optimism, derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from the respective sectors. The Services PMI is expected to show a value of 55.5 while the Manufacturing PMI has an anticipated value of 58.1; higher numbers usually strengthen the Euro but the indicators often have just a medium impact.


GBP/USD

Price bounced almost perfectly at 1.2770, establishing the level as support but the previous high was not broken yesterday; however, the bulls remain in clear control.

Technical Outlook

Currently the pair is capped by 1.2855 resistance and 1.2770 support and as long as these levels hold, we expect to see ranging movement. The bias remains clearly bullish and we anticipate a move above the previous high (1.2905) soon after the break of 1.2855. It is worth noting that both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are coming down from overbought area, so a break of 1.2770 is not out of the question but the extent of the move should be limited.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales are released today at 8:30 am GMT, showing changes in the total value of sales mate via retail outlets. Usually the indicator has a hefty impact on the Pound, with higher numbers strengthening it. The expected value is -0.3%, compared to the previous 1.4%.

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FOREX NEWS: EURO IN THE SPOTLIGHT AS THE FRENCH ELECTION SHAKES THE MARKET

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the pair showed mixed movement, first descending into the support at 1.0680 and then bouncing above 1.0710; economic data came close to analysts’ expectations, so the impact was mostly overlooked.

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average together with the level at 1.0680 created a very strong confluence zone of support, which acted as a springboard for price and immediately pushed it higher. Under normal circumstances, we would anticipate a continuation of the bullish advance, but given the important French Presidential Election that took place over the weekend, we maintain a neutral stance and recommend caution.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro will be affected throughout the day by the French Presidential Election and this will probably be a reason for irregular price action, with alternating periods of high and low volatility.

At 8:00 am GMT the German IFO Business Climate is released, expected to show a reading of 112.4. This is a well-respected survey, with a large sample of about 7,000 businesses, that asks respondents to rate the current level of business conditions, as well as a 6-month outlook; under normal circumstances, a higher than anticipated reading strengthens the Euro.


GBP/USD

The pair dropped Friday, mostly due to a worse than expected value of the British Retail Sales (forecast -0.3%; actual -1.8%) but the support at 1.2770 couldn’t be broken and price returned above it after a temporary dip below.

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2770 proved once again too strong and the pair bounced higher after a failed attempt to break it. This shows that the bears still cannot build enough pressure and the bulls remain in control but for the time being the pair is trapped between support (1.2770) and resistance (1.2855). A break of support will probably take price into the 50 period EMA, while a break of resistance will make 1.2905 the first target but the pair’s movement will likely be affected by the French Presidential Election.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today but the markets will be affected by the French Presidential Election so we recommend caution throughout the day.

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FOREX NEWS: EURO GETS A BOOST FROM THE FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The week opened with a huge upside gap of almost 150 pips, generated by the French Presidential Election. The pair is now sitting above several levels, which were previously resistance.

Technical Outlook

The gap took price to a high of 1.0890 but afterwards the pair started to range and the bullish advance stopped. Usually, gaps are closed, meaning that price will eventually return to the point where the gap originated but the time it takes for price to move there is unknown. We could very well see a push into the high at 1.0905 but it’s more likely to get another ranging trading session; for now, caution is recommended, until the pair chooses a clear direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Consumer Confidence survey will be today’s only notable release, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 123.7, which is a drop from the previous 125.6. The survey is derived from the opinions of about 5,000 households regarding economic and business conditions; this large sample is what makes it important, generating US Dollar strength if the actual reading surpasses analysts’ expectations.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair wasn’t much affected by the French Election and instead remained confined in a relatively tight range, with low volatility.

Technical Outlook

As long as the pair remains confined inside the channel created by 1.2770 support and 1.2855 resistance, we consider it in a range and we have a neutral directional bias. From a longer term perspective the pair is in an uptrend and we expect a continuation but if 1.2770 support is broken, we will most likely see a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by any major economic releases, so the pair’s direction will be determined by the technical aspect and by the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey.

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FOREX NEWS: EURO BREAKS OUT, POUND STILL STUCK IN A RANGE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro continued its advance to the upside yesterday and the pair managed to pierce through the high at 1.0905. The U.S. Consumer Confidence survey showed a disappointing value of only 120.3 (forecast 123.7) and this weakened the US Dollar, facilitating the climb.

Technical Outlook

Now that the pair broke the previous significant high at 1.0905, we expect to see a touch of 1.0950 resistance, followed possibly by a move into the psychological resistance at 1.1000. It must be noted that both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are clearly overbought, thus increasing the chances of a move down, below 1.0900. Also, the weekly gap is not closed and usually price returns to where the gap originated; however, the time frame for this to happen cannot be anticipated.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro and US Dollar both have a slow day ahead, in terms of economic news releases, so the main driver of price will be the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar remained in a relatively tight range, with low volatility for the most part of yesterday’s trading session. Overall the session was bullish but price is still inside the horizontal channel.

Technical Outlook

The pair touched several times the support at 1.2770 and each time it bounced higher, so for today we expect to see a touch of 1.2850 – 1.2855 resistance zone, which is also the upper boundary of the horizontal channel. If that zone is broken, we will most likely see an extended move into 1.2905. Keep in mind that until one boundary of the channel is broken decisively, the pair is in range-mode, without a clear bias.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the Euro and US Dollar, the Pound will not be affected today by any economic news releases, so the main focus will be on the technical side.

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FOREX NEWS: ALL EYES ON ECB FOR RATE DECISION AND PRESS CONFERENCE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was mostly bearish, with price dropping after a perfect bounce at 1.0950 resistance. The pair wasn’t affected by major economic releases and most of the move was technical.

Technical Outlook

Even if yesterday the sellers managed to take the pair below 1.0900, the bias remains bullish as long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. However, this bearish move may continue, considering that the Relative Strength Index was overbought for a long time and is now moving down with good momentum. It must be noted that today the technical aspect will be secondary as traders around the world will focus on Mario Draghi’s attitude and answers during the ECB Press Conference.

Fundamental Outlook

Today all eyes will be on the European Central Bank for the interest rate announcement, scheduled at 11:45 am GMT. The rate is not expected to change from the current 0.00% but usually the event creates volatility nonetheless. Later, at 12:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference discussing the rate decision; he will also answer journalists’ questions and usually this part creates strong movement on Euro pairs.

At the same time (12:30 pm GMT) the U.S. Durable Goods Orders are released, showing changes in the total value of orders placed for goods with a life expectancy of at least three years. Numbers above forecast (1.5%), usually generate US Dollar strength.


GBP/USD

The pair remained in a tight range and showed choppy movement yesterday. It is currently in a consolidation phase, inside a horizontal channel.

Technical Outlook

The lack of economic releases for the Pound is part of the reason why the pair moved sideways the entire week so far and until the horizontal channel created by 1.2855 and 1.2770 is broken, we expect to see more of the same. Our bias remains bullish, expecting a move into the resistance at 1.2905 but a break to the downside would invalidate this scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the rest of the week, today the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic news releases, so the pair’s direction will be affected by the technical aspect and the U.S. Durable Goods Orders.

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FOREX NEWS: KEY DATA TO END THE TRADING WEEK: UNITED STATES AND UNITED KINGDOM GDP

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro initially strengthened yesterday when ECB’s Draghi mentioned that downside risks to the economy have diminished but soon after, the market turned and the pair crossed back below 1.0900, heading towards 1.0850.

Technical Outlook

The pair is still facing strong support at 1.0850 and 1.0830 but bearish pressure has clearly increased and we expect a break of these levels, followed by an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If price can move below the 50 EMA, we expect to see an extended move down, possibly to where the weekly gap originated. Even if this will be the case, we will most likely see bullish pullbacks until price closes the gap; also, we don’t expect to see a closing of the gap during one day. A move back above 1.0900 would invalidate such a scenario for now.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the focus shifts towards the US Dollar for the release of the U.S. Advance version of the Gross Domestic Product. The GDP is an economy’s main gauge of overall performance and under normal circumstances, higher numbers strengthen the currency; also the Advance version is the most important of the three and this increases its importance. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the forecast is 1.3%.


GBP/USD

The pair continued slowly but surely to the upside, exiting the horizontal channel that confined it for more than a week. However, the resistance at 1.2905 stopped upside momentum.

Technical Outlook

The pair is very likely to retrace lower from 1.2905, considering that the Relative Strength Index is overbought and price travelled a long distance to the upside (compared to the movement seen during the last week). If this is the case, the first barrier is represented by the previous resistance at 1.2855, which now may turn into support; however, we don’t exclude the possibility of a move back inside the horizontal channel.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Preliminary Gross Domestic Product is released today at 8:30 am GMT and is expected to show a change of 0.4%. As mentioned above the GDP is the main gauge of economic performance and higher values usually strengthen the currency.

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FOREX NEWS: EUROPE CELEBRATES LABOR DAY. CHOPPY PRICE ACTION EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: Price showed mixed movement Friday, first climbing to touch resistance and then bouncing lower, erasing most of the gains. For now the pair remains in a range, without clear direction.

Technical Outlook

Friday’s bounce lower after touching 1.0950 resistance showed that the bulls are lacking the strength to take the pair higher and this makes us anticipate a move lower, into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. From a longer term perspective the pair is in an uptrend so we don’t exclude a break of 1.0950, but as long as price remains below this level, our bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

Today banks across Europe will be closed, celebrating Labor Day and no major indicators will be released. Volatility and price action will also be affected, so we recommend caution throughout the day.

At 2:00 pm GMT the U.S. Manufacturing PMI comes out, showing the opinions of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector about the economic health of this sector. The forecast is 56.6 and usually, higher numbers strengthen the currency.


GBP/USD

The British Gross Domestic Product disappointed Friday but the same was true for the U.S. GDP and the pair wasn’t much affected by the releases. Price continued higher, following the break of 1.2905.

Technical Outlook

The bias remains bullish, anticipating a move into 1.3000 psychological resistance. The level at 1.2905 can be considered support because price returned to re-test it from above after the bullish break and then bounced higher; this means that a break of the level would show bearish pressure and might trigger a move lower, possibly towards the 50 period EMA. Also, the Relative Strength Index is overbought and this is an early signal that price may reverse or at least retrace lower.

Fundamental Outlook

British banks will be closed today in observance of May Day and no important economic indicators will be released. This will most likely affect volatility and price behaviour.

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FOREX NEWS: VOLATILITY PICKS UP AFTER LABOR DAY, BRITISH MANUFACTURING PMI EYED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair showed slow movement yesterday, mostly because banks across Europe were closed, celebrating Labor Day, and no major indicators were released.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s trading session was choppy and doesn’t hold important clues about future direction. For now the pair is in a range but we must note that it moved above 1.0900 and this may bring in additional buyers; however, this is a level that lately didn’t have a lot of importance (price didn’t react to it), so we may easily see a drop below it. The levels to watch remain 1.0950 as resistance and 1.0850 as support and as long as the pair is trading between them, we consider it in a range.

Fundamental Outlook

We don’t have anything major on the economic calendar for the Euro and US Dollar so we might get another slow, ranging session.


GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro-Dollar, the Pound-Dollar moved without clear determination and direction but it remained above the previous resistance, now turned support.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday the pair descended into 1.2905 and bounced higher immediately after touching it, so now the previous resistance has turned into support. It must be noted that the bounce wasn’t a strong one, overall price action lacks strength and volatility is low. Our bias is still bullish as long as the pair is trading above 1.2905 and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but we don’t exclude a retracement lower or a ranging session.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing PMI is released, with a forecast value of 54.0, a small change from the previous 54.2. This is a survey derived from the opinions of about 600 purchasing managers, regarding economic and business conditions in the manufacturing sector and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. Usually numbers above expectations trigger Pound strength but the impact is low if the actual number comes close to the forecast.

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FOREX NEWS: VOLATILITY GUARANTEED: U.S. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE ANNOUNCEMENT

EUR/USD

Forex News: Movement was slow and choppy yesterday, mostly due to the lack of major economic releases. The pair remained in range-mode and no substantial advances were made by either side.

Technical Outlook

The pair is confined in a tight range and movement is slow; this behavior is usually followed by a strong breakout but the direction is difficult to predict. Our general bias is bullish as long as price is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but that doesn’t exclude a drop to touch the EMA or even break it. For now we recommend caution because probably today we will see a strong breakout.

Fundamental Outlook

The first key event of the day is the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, a report that tracks changes in the total number of employed people, excluding the farming industry and Government. This is less important than the Government data (NFP), announced Friday, but it is still a very important indicator, which can strengthen the US Dollar if it posts a higher reading than today’s forecast of 178K; the scheduled time of release is 12:15 pm GMT.

Later in the day, at 6:00 pm GMT the FOMC will release the Rate Statement, which contains the outcome of the interest rate vote (no change expected from the current <1.00%) and also details of the reasons that stood behind the votes. If the document will contain hints about future monetary policy direction or possibly about the pace of rate hikes, then we will most likely get a volatility boost on all US Dollar pairs. Either way, caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The Pound was strengthened yesterday by the British Manufacturing PMI, which posted a reading of 57.3, better than the expected 54.0. The release erased an earlier drop below 1.2905.

Technical Outlook

The move below 1.2905 may be considered just a retracement in an uptrend, especially because price rallied from close vicinity of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and 1.2855 support. The first resistance is now located at 1.2965 and a break of it would open the door for a move into 1.3000 psychological level. Today the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary to the fundamental because both currencies in the pair will be affected by important releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction PMI is released today at 8:30 am GMT and expected to show a value of 52.1, almost identical to the previous 52.2. This is a survey of purchasing managers that acts as a leading indicator of economic health, focused on the Construction sector; higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound but the impact is limited if the actual reading matches analysts’ expectations.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR REVITALIZED BY HAWKISH FED STANCE. BEARISH MOVES TO FOLLOW?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair showed choppy movement ahead of the FOMC Rate Statement but at the time of release the US Dollar strengthened although the rate remained unchanged, as expected. The statement was relatively hawkish, mentioning that the labor market has continued to strengthen and inflation is on track as well.

Technical Outlook

The pair has moved back below 1.0900 support and bearish pressure has increased, so for today we expect to see a move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, followed by a test of 1.0850 support. If that level will be broken, the move is likely to extend lower, possibly into 1.0800 but this target will not be reached in a day unless surprising developments take place. A bullish bounce at the 50 EMA will probably take price back above 1.0900 and into 1.0950.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is light for both Euro and US Dollar, without major releases, so the pair’s direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The Pound showed some strength before the Fed release but the previous gains were erased and the pair descended below 1.2900, approaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Technical Outlook

Today we will most likely see a touch of the 50 period EMA and the support at 1.2855. If the confluence zone created by these two technical elements will be broken, the pair will re-enter the horizontal channel that confined it for more than a week. This sets up two possible scenarios: either the pair will start ranging again, inside the channel, or we will see an extended bearish move that will have 1.2770 as first target. A quick move above 1.2900 will make 1.2965 the immediate target.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the last British survey in this week’s series is released: the Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). The expected value is 54.6 and under normal circumstances, higher numbers strengthen the Pound; usually this indicator has a medium impact on the currency.