外汇分析 | Gdmfx Brokerage | 每日报告

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FOREX NEWS: CHRISTMAS APPROACHES, CHOPPY PRICE ACTION EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: Both U.S. Indicators released yesterday posted better than expected readings but despite this, the pair continued slowly higher, reaching resistance.

Technical Outlook

The pair is testing the resistance level at 1.0460, in very close vicinity of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. These two types of resistance (horizontal and dynamic, respectively) represent a confluence zone that will be tough to break by the buyers but on the other hand, a break would show bullish strength, indicating that price is likely to extend higher. The next target and possible barrier is located at 1.0525, while to the downside, 1.0366 remains a key level.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. New Home Sales numbers are released today at 3:00 pm GMT and this will be the only notable indicator of the day. The forecast is 575K and values above this number show increased activity on the house market; usually this strengthens the US Dollar but to a limited extent. The approaching of Christmas will probably trigger irregular volatility and choppy price action, thus caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The pair slid lower yesterday and touched the support at 1.2325 once again in a short while. It’s safe to say that until support or resistance is broken, the pair will be in range mode.

Technical Outlook

The bears are struggling to break the support zone around 1.2325 but the move lacks steam and the Relative Strength Index has been moving very close to its oversold level for a long time. This increases the chances of a bullish bounce from the current level but the pair is trapped between 1.2385 resistance and 1.2325 support so we consider it in range mode until it moves outside the mentioned levels.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected by the release of the Current Account and the British GDP, both scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. The Current Account shows the difference in value between imports and exports (expected to show -28.3B), while the GDP is the main gauge of an economy’s performance (forecast 0.5%) and higher values for these indicators usually strengthen the Pound.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

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FOREX NEWS: LOW VOLUME, IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION AS THE WINTER HOLIDAYS TAKE OVER

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the pair moved slightly higher but didn’t break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and price action was choppy, which is normal before Christmas when trading volume starts to dim.

Technical Outlook

The 50 period EMA is still preventing the pair from going higher and 1.0460 resistance is still intact. This means that we are dealing with a ‘bounce or break’ scenario where a bounce would take price closer to 1.0366 and a break would make 1.0525 the first target but many countries celebrate the Winter Holidays, so liquidity, volume and price action in general will be affected. Our bias is neutral and we recommend caution.

Fundamental Outlook

German banks are closed today in observance of Boxing Day and Italian banks are closed due to St. Stephen’s Day. Also US banks are closed, celebrating Christmas Day so we expect a day without much movement and probably irregular price action.


GBP/USD

Although the Pound benefited from positive economic data released Friday, the pair descended during the first part of the day but bounced at support and erased most of the earlier losses.

Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are exiting oversold territory and this favours an extended move up that may have 1.2325 as destination. The level at 1.2250 is still considered support although it was breached Friday, so we may see another attempt to break it during the days to come. For today our view is neutral considering that volume and volatility will be affected by the Winter Holidays.

Fundamental Outlook

UK banks are closed today in observance of Boxing Day and no economic indicators are released. We recommend caution because price behaviour will be uncertain.

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FOREX NEWS: ACTION RESUMES, VOLUME STILL AFFECTED BY WINTER HOLIDAYS

EUR/USD

Forex News: As expected, the pair reached a stalemate yesterday and no major developments took place, due to the Winter Holidays.

Technical Outlook

Price is flat and yesterday’s trading session doesn’t hold any information about future direction. We expect the pair to continue with its irregular movement and volume will still be affected. Our bias is neutral and we recommend caution.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey is released, showing the opinions of 5,000 households about current and future economic conditions. The expected figure is 108.9 and usually, higher numbers strengthen the US Dollar, but given the current low volume, we don’t know what the exact impact will be.


GBP/USD

There wasn’t much action yesterday and the pair remained between support and resistance, with little to no volume.

Technical Outlook

Given the current situation, our bias is neutral until volume returns to normal or at least until action picks up. The pair is in a downtrend that seems overextended so we expect some sort of retracement sooner rather than later. The levels to watch remain 1.2250 as support and 1.2325 as resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

UK banks will be closed, celebrating Christmas Day and no economic indicators will be released. We recommend caution because price action will still be affected.

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FOREX NEWS: MARKETS IN INDECISION MODE AS END OF YEAR APPROACHES

EUR/USD

Forex News: Throughout yesterday’s trading session the pair remained in a very tight range, with almost flat price action. The U.S. Consumer Confidence survey showed a better than anticipated value but this didn’t have a strong impact on the US Dollar.

Technical Outlook

The pair is still clearly affected by the Winter Holidays and is moving sideways, lacking any clear direction. Volume is still low and volatility can become irregular, meaning that price may jump to one direction or the other without warning. Caution is still recommended until a clear direction emerges; the levels to watch are 1.0460 as resistance and 1.0366 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Pending Home Sales are released today at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to show a change of 0.6% compared to the previous 0.1%. This is considered a medium impact indicator that shows changes in the number of homes under contract to be sold and usually a higher value strengthens the US Dollar but given the current low volume, its release may go mostly unnoticed.


GBP/USD

The bears took the pair lower yesterday and tested support once again but without a clear break. The picture is still blurry and the pair is in range mode.

Technical Outlook

The pair shows bearish pressure as price is trying to push below 1.2250 support but as mentioned before, the Relative Strength Index has been moving very close to oversold for a long while. This suggests that a bullish pullback is about to occur, but given the current low volume, we cannot anticipate when this will happen. Caution is still recommended.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today so the only highlight will be the U.S. indicator that comes out in the afternoon.

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FOREX NEWS: DOWNTREND RESUMPTION OR END-OF-YEAR FAKE-OUT?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair picked up speed yesterday and dropped after a brief climb above resistance. The U.S. Pending Home Sales did not have a strong impact and price started to move lower before the release.

Technical Outlook

If the current bearish momentum continues, we are likely to see another attempt to break 1.0366 but keep in mind that lately the pair has been in ranging mode, so it’s very possible to see a quick reversal that will test the 50 period Exponential Moving Average again. The chances of a move up are increased by the Relative Strength Index approaching its 30 level and suggesting that the pair is becoming oversold again.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable release of the day is the U.S. Unemployment Claims, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The indicator tracks the number of people who asked for unemployment related benefits during the previous week but because it’s released weekly, its impact is not huge; however, a higher number than the forecast 277K can weaken the US Dollar because it may indicate a drop in consumer spending in the near future.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s session belonged to the bears and the US Dollar strengthened against the Pound allowing the pair to drop below the support at 1.2250 which rejected price almost perfectly so far.

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2250 acted as a key level over the last period and now it may turn into resistance for future price action. The Relative Strength Index is hugging its oversold level for a long while and this means that a retracement is about to occur; the first target for this potential move up is the mentioned level (1.2250), followed by the 50 EMA. Keep in mind that the pair is still in a downtrend but also that volume and volatility are not completely back to normal.

Fundamental Outlook

Same as the rest of the week, UK’s economic calendar is light so we expect price direction to be influenced mainly by the U.S. release mentioned above and by the technical aspect.

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FOREX NEWS: LAST TRADING DAY OF 2016. IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s price action confirmed that the pair is in range mode and we saw a bounce near support. Most of the day was controlled by the bulls but resistance wasn’t clearly broken.

Technical Outlook

Price came very close to the support located at 1.0366 and bounced higher, into 1.0460 resistance without breaking it. This is typical behaviour for a ranging market and the fact that today is the last trading day of 2016 will contribute to irregular price behaviour. Our bias is neutral and we anticipate alternating periods of volatility, thus caution is recommended.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar doesn’t hold any major indicators and price action will be mainly affected by end-of-year volatility.


GBP/USD

The pair retraced higher during the first part of yesterday’s trading session but a drop that erased most of the gains soon followed. The short term is clearly affected by the approaching of New Year’s Eve and the pair doesn’t have a clear direction.

Technical Outlook

Recent price action established 1.2200 as short term support and it seems like the zone around 1.2250 is now resistance. From a longer term perspective the pair is still in a downtrend that is in need of a stronger retracement and from a short term point of view, price is ranging. Volatility and direction today will be irregular and we recommend caution.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news announcements today. We hope you had a profitable trading year and we wish you a better 2017.

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FOREX NEWS: MARKETS IN LIMBO AS NEW YEAR CELEBRATIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GLOBE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Choppiness continued Friday after a strong move up that reached resistance and bounced lower immediately after touching it. Now the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but no clear trend is in place.

Technical Outlook

Today we will get low volume and little to no movement. Most banks across the globe will be closed in celebration of the New Year and this will also contribute to the irregular price action; spreads may increase and although this is normal during such times, we recommend careful placement of Stop Loss orders and caution overall until things return to normal.

Fundamental Outlook

As expected, today no major indicators are released and on top of that, U.S. banks are closed in celebration of New Year’s Day. This means that volume will be affected and price may behave erratically.


GBP/USD

Friday price moved and remained above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, completing a bullish retracement that was already anticipated for a while.

Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we may see an extended move to the upside but from a longer term perspective, price is in a downtrend. It must be noted that the level at 1.2385 offered strong resistance and rejected price lower, so a move below the 50 EMA is not out of the question but liquidity will be thin today and this will probably generate choppy movement.

Fundamental Outlook

Banks in the United Kingdom will also be closed due to New Year’s Day, so price will probably lack a clear direction.

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FOREX NEWS: VOLATILITY PICKS UP AS BANKS RE-OPEN AFTER NEW YEAR CELEBRATIONS

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session belonged to the bears and we saw the pair descend below 1.0525 and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Some banks around the globe were closed due to New Year celebrations, so volume remained relatively low.

Technical Outlook

The move below the 50 period EMA seems fragile and 1.0460 may turn into support. If this is the case, we will probably see a bounce above the moving average and possibly another test of 1.0525 but it must be noted that conditions still haven’t returned to normal so we may get a choppy trading session, with sharp reversals and irregular price movement. As long as the pair is trading below the 50 EMA, our bias is slightly bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:00 pm GMT we take a first look at German inflation with the release of their Preliminary Consumer Price Index. The forecast is a 0.6% increase from the previous 0.1% and if this prediction comes true or of higher numbers are posted, the Euro is likely to strengthen against its counterparts.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. Manufacturing PMI is released, showing the opinions of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector regarding business conditions in said sector. Higher numbers than the forecast 53.7 show optimism and usually give a boost to the US Dollar but the impact is often limited if the actual number comes close to the forecast.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar strengthened against the Pound as well yesterday and the pair dropped below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, completing a bearish but choppy trading session.

Technical Outlook

The current bearish impulse might extend into the support at 1.2250 but we don’t expect this move to complete during the course of one day unless surprising developments take place. The level at 1.2325 may turn into resistance but we don’t exclude the possibility of a move above it because the trading environment is still affected by the start of the New Year and liquidity is low. Caution is still recommended.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing PMI is released today at 9:30 am GMT and is expected to show a value of 53.3, almost identical to the previous 53.4. This survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health, with higher numbers strengthening the Pound but usually the impact is mild if the actual number is close to analysts’ prediction.

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FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT THREATENED, US DOLLAR IN CHARGE AHEAD OF FOMC MEETING MINUTES

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar won the battle against the Euro yesterday, boosted also by a better than expected Manufacturing PMI survey. Key support is threatened and seems like volume is back after the winter holidays.

Technical Outlook

The pair is currently testing the zone of support around 1.0366 and reached a low that was last seen in the year 2003. If the current support zone is broken decisively, price will be ‘free falling’ because there is no known support below this zone (the levels below are very old and we cannot anticipate how price will behave there). The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are approaching oversold and this may call for bullish pullbacks.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s highlight is the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes, scheduled at 7:00 pm GMT. This document contains details about the latest Fed Meeting and may offer hints about future monetary policy (rate hikes more importantly); if this is the case, we will probably get a strong reaction from the greenback.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar scored a major victory against the Pound yesterday, taking the pair about 100 pips lower and reaching the support at 1.2200. British Manufacturing data was better than anticipated but this didn’t have a strong impact on price movement.

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2200 is important for short term price action and we expect the pair to react to it by bouncing higher. A break of this level will open the door for a move into 1.2090, which is a key level, better seen on the Daily charts. The oscillators are still showing good downside momentum and this increases the chances of a break of 1.2200, while to the upside, 1.2250 is the first resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI is released and expected to show a value of 52.6 compared to the previous 52.8. This survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health focused on the construction sector but its impact is usually mild, with higher values strengthening the Pound.

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FOREX NEWS: U.S. JOBS DATA IN THE FOCUS AS BEARISH PRESSURE MOUNTS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair bounced higher yesterday and moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average ahead of the FOMC Minutes release, which created some Dollar strength but nothing substantial. Overall the session belonged to the bulls but bearish pressure has increased.

Technical Outlook

The climb above the 50 period EMA and above the resistance at 1.0460 seems fragile and the risks of a drop have increased due to bearish pressure. If the buyers can keep the pair above these two elements, we expect price to test the level at 1.0525 but for now the picture is blurry and a clear direction is not in place. Because the pair is mostly ranging, look for direction changes at overbought/oversold levels or at support/resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 1:15 pm GMT we take a first look at the U.S. employment situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. The indicator shows changes in the number of employed people, excluding government and the farming sector; usually the impact is lower than the Government data released Friday but nonetheless, higher numbers than the anticipated 171K (previous 216K) can strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The level at 1.2200 offered good support and the pair bounced higher immediately after touching it. The US Dollar had a mixed reaction when the FOMC Minutes were released and now the pair is showing rejection around resistance.

Technical Outlook

After moving briefly above 1.2325 and above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair shows signs of rejection. Resistance is not yet broken, so if we will see today a move below the 50 EMA, it would mean that the bears are ready to take control again and this would make 1.2250 the next destination. To the upside the first target is 1.2385 if the pair moves above 1.2325 again.

Fundamental Outlook

The final British survey in this week’s series of three is released today at 9:30 am GMT: the Services Purchasing Managers’ Index. Just like the other two surveys, this one shows the level of optimism regarding business conditions as perceived by purchasing managers from the respective sector; values above the forecast 54.8 usually strengthen the Pound but the impact is medium most of the times.