外汇分析 | Gdmfx Brokerage | 每日报告

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FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT REJECTS FALLING PRICES, US DOLLAR STILL IN MEDIUM TERM CONTROL

EUR/USD

Forex News: Thanksgiving Day brought low volatility, especially during the New York session and the US Dollar gave back some of the previous gains. The German IFO survey came close to analysts’ forecast so the release didn’t have a notable impact.

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.0525 rejected downside momentum yesterday and now the bulls are struggling to take the pair above the resistance at 1.0570. If they succeed in doing so, we will probably see a move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.0650. The day ahead lacks major economic releases and we expect a ranging session, without special developments. That being said, keep in mind that the pair is still in a downtrend and the US Dollar shows signs of strength.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a lacklustre day as far as the economic calendar is concerned so the main focus will be the technical side.


GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar moved without conviction yesterday, ranging between the Moving Average and the resistance at 1.2480. This behaviour was partly generated by the U.S. celebrating Thanksgiving Day and partly by the lack of British releases.

Technical Outlook

The ranging period is likely to continue until 1.2480 resistance or the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is broken. When one of these events will take place, we expect price to continue moving in that direction but until a clear break occurs, our view is neutral on the pair. The oscillators are moving in the middle of their channels, lacking a clear direction and adding to the overall uncertainty.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Second Estimate version of the Gross Domestic Product is released today at 9:30 am GMT and may be a catalyst for a breakout. The GDP is the main gauge of overall economy performance, thus higher numbers than the anticipated 0.5% may bring Pound strength.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

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FOREX NEWS: DRAGHI TESTIFIES ON BREXIT CONSEQUENCES. EURO WILL NOT REMAIN INDIFFERENT

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday’s movement was choppy and without special developments. The pair remained above 1.0570 but bearish pressure is mounting and rejection candles are present.

Technical Outlook

As you can see on the chart above, the candles show long wicks in their upper parts and this is a sign of bearish pressure. Price came close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the bulls couldn’t even manage to touch this form of resistance and the overall trend is down so we expect to see a move below 1.0570. However, keep in mind that on a Daily chart both oscillators are deep in oversold territory so a stronger move north is not out of the question, especially if the 50 EMA will be broken.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s only important event is the testimony of ECB President Mario Draghi, delivered before the European Parliament’s Economic Committee on the topic of monetary developments, economic perspective and Brexit consequences. These are all delicate subjects that may affect strongly the market, thus we recommend caution. The scheduled time is 2:00 pm GMT.


GBP/USD

The Second Estimate version of the British GDP, announced Friday matched analysts’ expectations (0.5% change) and the release didn’t have a strong impact. The pair remained in a tight range.

Technical Outlook

Price is trapped between the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.2480 but the chances of a breakout are very high, especially because the distance between the two barriers is so small. Given the fact that the pair has been moving almost completely sideways lately, our view is neutral until a strong move or a clear breakout occurs. Once that happens, the pair is likely to continue in the direction of the break.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news announcements for today and this makes the technical aspect the deciding factor for the pair’s direction.

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FOREX NEWS: A FULL DAY AHEAD: GERMAN INFLATION DATA, U.S. GDP AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY

EUR/USD

Forex News: After a brief move above the resistance located around 1.0650, the bears took control of yesterday’s session and the pair descended to touch support. The higher than usual volatility may be attributed partly to Draghi’s testimony.

Technical Outlook

It seems like the US Dollar is trying to gain back control over the pair, pushing it lower for another attempt to break the key support located at 1.0525. The oscillators are moving downwards, supporting a bearish move and the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. As long as things remain this way, we favour the short side and anticipate a break of 1.0525.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:00 pm GMT we take a first look at German inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index. The indicator acts as a measure of inflation, showing changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase. A higher change than the forecast 0.1% can strengthen the Euro.

The Preliminary version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product is released later at 1:30 pm GMT, with an anticipated change of 3.0% (previous 2.9%). The GDP is the main gauge of overall economic performance and usually a higher reading triggers strength for the currency.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the Consumer Confidence survey comes out, showing the opinions of U.S. citizens about economic and business conditions. A higher number than the forecast 101.3 would show optimism, acting as a leading indicator of consumer spending, and would strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro-Dollar, this pair climbed above resistance early during yesterday’s trading session but soon gave up all the gains and dropped lower.

Technical Outlook

We can consider yesterday’s move above 1.2480 a false break, so the zone will still act as resistance in the future. The bounce lower brought the pair below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and now we can expect a touch of 1.2325. It must be noted that the Moving Average is flat, without clear direction and the pair is still in range mode until it clearly moves above 1.2480 or below 1.2325.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases so the pair’s direction will be decided by the U.S. data mentioned earlier and by the technical aspect.

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FOREX NEWS: ADP NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT DATA TO REVEAL THE DOLLAR’S NEXT MOVE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Despite the multitude of economic indicators released yesterday, the pair remained relatively unfazed and stayed between support and resistance for the entire day.

Technical Outlook

Price touched the support at 1.0570 and quickly bounced to the upside, touching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This leaves us with a bounce-or-break scenario where the 50 EMA plays the biggest role: a break would signify a short term victory for the bulls and would make 1.0650 the first target for the day, while a bounce lower will test 1.0570 support again. The next targets would become 1.0700 zone and 1.0525 but we don’t expect a break of either one unless surprises occur.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT we take another look at European inflation with the release of the Eurozone Flash Estimate Consumer Price Index (CPI). The indicator is the main gauge of inflation and can bring Euro strength if it posts a reading above the forecast 0.6%.

Later in the day, at 1:15 pm GMT the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change comes out, showing changes in the number of employed people in the U.S., excluding the farming sector and government. The indicator is less important than the Non-Farm Payrolls released Friday but nonetheless, higher numbers than the anticipated 161K can strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Price action was mostly dominated by the bulls yesterday and the pair moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but for the time being, the ranging period is still not over.

Technical Outlook

The pair moved above the 50 period EMA and above the resistance at 1.2480 but as seen a day before, price had similar behaviour and then reversed to the downside. This means that we still don’t consider 1.2480 broken and we don’t exclude the possibility of another fall through the Moving Average. The pair’s direction remains uncertain and range-bound trading is still in play.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Bank Stress Test results are revealed today and this may have an impact on the Pound but may also go mostly unnoticed. During these tests, synthetic market conditions are applied to large banks to determine their financial stability and potential risks; the time of the release is 7:00 am GMT.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR BOOSTED BY JOBS DATA, SUPPORT TARGETED

EUR/USD

Forex News: American jobs data released yesterday showed a reading of 216K, surprisingly better than the anticipated 161K and this contributed to a bounce lower after touching resistance.

Technical Outlook

It seems like the resistance at 1.0650 is still a barrier too strong for the bulls to break and we anticipate a move that will initially reach the support at 1.0570. A possible break of this level will trigger another test of 1.0525 but price action is choppy lately so we don’t exclude another surprise climb. As long as the pair is trading below resistance and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, we favour the short side.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s most notable release is the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, a survey of purchasing managers that asks respondents to give their opinion on the health of the manufacturing sector. Usually a higher reading is beneficial for the US Dollar but the impact if sometimes mild, especially if the actual number matches the forecast. The time of release is 3:00 pm GMT and the expected value is 52.1.


GBP/USD

The pair moved again above the resistance around 1.2480 but the bulls failed to capitalize and price dropped below the level, just how it did a day before. Price action remained choppy, with reversals on the lower time frames.

Technical Outlook

The fact that yesterday’s bullish breakout was false and price returned inside the channel, confirms that the ranging period is still not over and that we will see more of the choppy movement experienced during the previous days. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is almost flat, confirming that the pair lacks a clear bias. We recommend caution until a direction becomes clearer.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing PMI is released and anticipated to show a value of 54.4, almost identical to the previous 54.3. Similar to the U.S. indicator with the same name, this survey measures optimism among purchasing managers and can strengthen the Pound if it posts higher than anticipated readings.

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FOREX NEWS: NFP TO MAKE-OR-BREAK US DOLLAR’S TREND?

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair remained between support and resistance and this goes to show that both sides are reluctant to commit to a clear direction. In the afternoon the U.S. Manufacturing PMI posted a better than expected value and this brought limited greenback strength.

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.0570 rejected price higher but bullish momentum stopped at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This is typical behaviour for a ranging market so our view is mostly neutral until 1.0570 support or 1.0650 resistance is broken decisively. However, the pair is in a downtrend from a longer term perspective so we slightly favour the short side but keep in mind that today’s U.S. jobs data will overshadow the technical aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

The most important U.S. employment data of the month comes out today at 1:30 pm GMT: the Non-Farm Payrolls (also known as Non-Farm Employment Change). The indicator tracks changes in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry and usually generates very strong movement but the pair is prone to sudden changes of direction, observed better on the lower time frames. A higher change than the forecast 165K usually benefits the US Dollar and brings the pair lower.


GBP/USD

The pair finally broke out of the horizontal channel yesterday and the bulls managed to drive it into the next resistance. The move was mostly based on Pound strength, not necessarily Dollar weakness.

Technical Outlook

The resistance around 1.2480 is now clearly broken but we can see rejection at the next resistance, located at 1.2675. The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are now both overbought due to the long distance travelled yesterday and this combined with the long upper wick of the latest candle, suggests that a bounce lower is next. If the current resistance is surpassed, we expect the bounce to occur around 1.2770.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event will definitely be the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls but on the Pound side it’s worth mentioning the release of the Construction PMI, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a reading of 52.3. Usually a higher reading indicates optimism but the impact is low if the actual number matches the forecast.

We hope you had a profitable week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SUFFERS TEMPORARY WEAKNESS

EUR/USD

The Non-Farm Payrolls numbers came out very close to estimates Friday but the previous value was revised from 161K to 147K. It’s not uncommon for this to happen but when the number is revised lower, usually the US Dollar has to suffer.

Technical Outlook

Price action remained choppy but had a bullish bias due to US Dollar weakness generated by the NFP revision. It looks like 1.0650 is now clearly broken and the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, so the short term picture is bullish but not in a definitive manner. If today price remains above the 50 EMA, we expect a touch of 1.0710.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurogroup Meetings take place today and may generate some volatility but this will be limited unless surprising discussions take place. The Meetings are closed to the press but a formal statement is released at the end of the day; sometimes participants talk to the press during the day.

At 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI comes out, with a forecast reading of 55.3. This is a survey of purchasing managers from outside the manufacturing sector and usually has a mild impact on the US Dollar, with higher numbers strengthening it.


GBP/USD

Friday the Pound had another great day, gaining against the US Dollar and breaking another resistance level. The bias is bullish but the oscillators are overbought.

Technical Outlook

Friday’s climb took both oscillators in overbought territory and this makes us anticipate a minor pullback before 1.2770 is hit. The previous resistance at 1.2675 may turn into support and reject price higher; if this is the case, the chances of a push into 1.2770 will increase. A more important level is located at 1.2855 but we don’t expect it to be reached today.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Services PMI is released today at 9:30 am GMT and is the only notable Pound affecting indicator. The expected value is 54.2 and higher numbers can strengthen the currency because the survey acts a measure of optimism focused of course on the Services sector.

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FOREX NEWS: GREENBACK CONTINUES TO LOSE. OVERSOLD OSCILLATORS WARN OF RETRACEMENTS

EUR/USD

Forex news: The week opened lower but the gap was soon closed and the pair broke resistance. The move was mostly generated by the Italian Constitution Amendment Vote.

Technical Outlook

The break of 1.0710 opens the door for an extended move into the resistance at 1.0800, which is both a psychological level and a technical level better seen on the Daily chart. However, we are not dealing with an uptrend yet so the possibility of a drop must not be overlooked. When the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic become overbought, we anticipate bearish pullbacks that will probably confirm 1.0710 as support. If this level doesn’t become support, we anticipate a drop below 1.0650.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECOFIN Meetings take place today, attended by Finance Ministers from the EU member states. The event often goes unnoticed but caution should be used because surprises can always happen.

On the US Dollar side we have the Factory Orders, released at 3:00 pm GMT but this is an indicator with a medium-to-low impact on the greenback so we don’t expect sharp moves. A higher change than the anticipated 2.5% shows an increase in production and usually strengthens the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The pair had similar behaviour to the EUR/USD, opening with a gap lower and then climbing above the point where the gap originated. Most of yesterday’s trading session was choppy but with a bullish bias.

Technical Outlook

For a second time in a short while both oscillators are moving in overbought territory and this calls for a retracement to the downside. It is very likely to see a touch of 1.2770 resistance and then a drop lower but we don’t exclude the possibility of such a move occurring before that level is reached. After this potential retracement, we expect the bullish momentum to resume and 1.2770 to be broken.

Fundamental Outlook

The British economic calendar is light today, without any major announcements so the pair’s direction will be mostly influenced by the technical side.

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FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE HOLDS STRONG AS BEARISH PRESSURE MOUNTS

EUR/USD

The first part of yesterday’s trading session belonged to the bulls, who took price into 1.0800 zone; however, the pair lost steam and bounced lower once the barrier was hit.

Technical Outlook

The pair bounced lower immediately after hitting 1.0800 resistance and now we can expect the bearish move to extend into 1.0710 which may turn into support. If this level is breached, we expect a touch of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but as long as price remains above this dynamic support, the picture is bullish and the probability of another encounter with 1.0800 is high.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s price direction will be mostly decided by the technical aspect because the United States and Europe don’t release any major economic indicators so we have a lacklustre fundamental scene for both currencies.


GBP/USD

The pair continued its climb yesterday and reached the resistance at 1.2770 but now bearish pressure has increased and a retracement is in the making.

Technical Outlook

The control currently belongs to the bulls but the resistance located at 1.2770, combined with the overbought condition of the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index will most likely generate a move lower that is likely to touch 1.2675. If this level will turn into support and price will bounce off of it, then we can expect a break of 1.2770 and a consequent move into 1.2855, which is a level best seen on a Daily chart. These moves will probably happen over the course of several days.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Production numbers are released at 9:30 am GMT and this will be the main market mover for the Pound. The indicator tracks changes in the total value of goods produced by manufacturers and usually, higher numbers strengthen the currency because they indicate increased economic activity; the forecast is 0.2%, while the previous was 0.6%.

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FOREX NEWS: EURO STEALS THE SPOTLIGHT. ALL EYES ON ECB PRESS CONFERENCE

EUR/USD

Yesterday the pair slowed down but it is clear now that 1.0710 has become support and until that changes, the bias is bullish. The fundamental scene was quiet and this contributed to a slow session.

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average is angled upwards and the level at 1.0710 is confirmed as support so the short term bias is bullish and we anticipate a touch of 1.0800. If the mentioned support is broken, we can expect the 50 EMA to push price higher but a break of this barrier would suggest a reversal to the downside. Price direction will be heavily influenced by the ECB Rate announcement and Mario Draghi’s press conference so we recommend caution as the technical side will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:45 pm GMT the European Central Bank will announce their decision regarding the interest rate and although no change is expected from the current 0.00%, the event usually generates volatility. However, the pair may be unwilling to choose a direction until the ECB Press Conference takes place, 45 minutes later, at 1:30 pm GMT. During this conference, ECB President Mario Draghi will answer journalists’ questions and will talk about the reasons that determined the rate decision. It’s possible for him to offer hints about future monetary policy and if this is the case, the Euro will respond accordingly.


GBP/USD

British Manufacturing Production disappointed, as shown by yesterday’s numbers (forecast 0.2%, actual -0.9%) and this affected the Pound negatively, allowing the pair to drop into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Technical Outlook

After the perfect bounce at 1.2770, price moved below 1.2675 and is now testing the 50 period EMA on the four-hour chart. It’s not yet clear whether the bears can break it or not but if they do, we expect to see more downside movement, with 1.2480 – 1.2500 zone as first target. Even if price reaches this zone, we don’t expect it to travel in a straight line (we’ll probably see bullish bounces until it reaches support). On the other hand, a quick move above the 50 EMA will make 1.2770 the target once again.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t prepare any special economic releases for today, thus price direction will be decided mainly by the technical aspect.