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FOREX NEWS: GERMAN INFLATION AND U.S. GDP: A STRONG FINISH TO A DULL WEEK

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Durable Goods Orders didn’t have a major impact on price action yesterday and the pair remained in a relatively tight range, capped by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Technical Outlook

The pair approached the 50 period EMA for the second time in a short while and it looks like the bears are trying to push price lower again but currently they lack steam. The level at 1.0910 is not broken decisively but once it’s broken, we expect 1.0860 to be threatened. If the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is broken to the upside, the bulls will gain the upper hand for short term movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The first important release of the day is scheduled at 12:00 pm GMT: the Preliminary version of the German Consumer Price Index. This is the main gauge of inflation and has a strong impact on the Euro because the German economy is an important pillar of the entire Eurozone; that being said, higher numbers than the forecast change of 0.1%, can strengthen the single currency.

On the US Dollar side we have the Advance version of the Gross Domestic Product, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. The GDP is an economy’s main measure of performance, thus higher values than the anticipated 2.5% (previous 1.4%) usually give a boost to the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

The British GDP showed yesterday a higher value than expected but still below the previous release. This created somewhat mixed movement, with the Pound strengthening initially then dropping after a bounce at the moving average.

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average proved once again too strong for the bulls to break so now we can expect the pair to reach the lower part of the horizontal channel, located at 1.2090. This support proved strong in the past so a break will only come if the greenback strengthens from positive economic data or the Pound weakens for various reasons. If the 50 EMA is broken to the upside, we will probably see a touch of the resistance at 1.2325.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by major news releases so the pair will be influenced by the U.S. GDP and the technical aspect.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

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FOREX NEWS: EUROPEAN INFLATION DATA KICK-STARTS THE WEEK

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday’s better than expected U.S. GDP was overshadowed by the reopening of the Clinton email case by the FBI. As a result the greenback weakened and the pair shot up through resistance.

Technical Outlook

The 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.0955 were both broken and now the short term bias is bullish. We expect a move into the zone near 1.1025 but we must note that the Relative Strength Index is entering overbought and the pair is still in a downtrend; this means that once (and if) 1.1025 resistance is hit, we expect a move to the downside, possibly into 1.0955 zone.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:00 am GMT the German Retail sales are released and expected to change 0.2% compared to the previous -0.4%. Higher values usually strengthen the Euro because sales made at retail outlets represent the major part of consumer spending, which in turn accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

At 10:00 am GMT the Flash Estimate Eurozone Consumer Price Index is released, anticipated to show a change of 0.5% (previous 0.4%). The indicator tracks changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase and usually a higher reading brings Euro strength.


GBP/USD

The Advance version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product showed a change of 2.9%, which was better than the previous (1.4%) and the forecast (2.5%). Despite all this the US Dollar couldn’t make any advances and instead weakened, mainly due to the reopening of Clinton’s email case.

Technical Outlook

The pair came close to 1.2090 support and bounced higher, into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but movement wasn’t very decisive. If the effect of Friday’s events will extend to today’s session, we will probably see a break of the moving average and a move closer to 1.2325 but if the pair remains below the 50 EMA, we will probably see another attempt to break 1.2090.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news releases for today and this may contribute to a slow, ranging session.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STAGES A COMEBACK, MANUFACTURING DATA EYED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The German Retail Sales disappointed yesterday by showing a change of -1.4%, worse than the anticipated 0.2% and the previous -0.3%. This stopped the Euro’s bullish advance and brought the pair back into support.

Technical Outlook

The pair retraced yesterday into the support offered by the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the way it behaves here will probably decide the next direction. A break of the moving average would show that the US Dollar is still strong and would open the door for a resumption of the downtrend, making 1.0910 the first target, followed by 1.0860. On the other hand, a bounce would make 1.0995 (1.1000) the first bullish target of the day.

Fundamental Outlook

Italian and French banks are closed today in observance of All Saints Day so we may see low volatility coming from the Euro. The US Dollar will be affected by the release of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 51.8, slightly better than the previous 51.5. Higher numbers show optimism among purchasing managers form the manufacturing sector and usually strengthen the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair had a pretty slow day, with a bearish bias. The lack of economic releases contributed to the low volatility and price remained below dynamic resistance.

Technical Outlook

Price came very close to touching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and then bounced lower again; however, both the bears and bulls lack the willingness to take control of the pair so we expect the ranging period to continue. A break of the 50 EMA would probably bring in more buyers and take price closer to 1.2325, while to the downside 1.2090 remains the first support.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index is released today at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a value of 54.6, lower than the previous 55.4. This index acts as a leading indicator of economic health, thus higher numbers usually strengthen the currency but to a limited extent.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR LOSES GROUND, FED MAY HINT TO DECEMBER HIKE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session belonged to the bulls almost entirely, as the Euro strengthened and pushed easily through resistance. The U.S. Manufacturing PMI matched analysts’ expectation, thus the release didn’t create US Dollar strength.

Technical Outlook

After an almost perfect bounce at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average the pair jumped and broke through the resistance at 1.0995 and 1.1025. We expect the current impulse to continue through 1.1060 and towards 1.1100 but a lot will depend on FOMC’s stance regarding interest rates. The two oscillators are overbought for the second time in a short while and this suggests that a retracement is due in the near future.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:15 pm GMT, Automatic Data Processing Inc. will release their version of the Non-Farm Employment Change report, which shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month, excluding the farming sector and government. Usually a higher number than the anticipated 166K strengthens the US Dollar but the impact is not as high as the NFP released Friday.

At 6:00 pm GMT the FOMC will release their Statement that contains their decision on the interest rate as well as insights into the reasons that determined it. The rate is not expected to change (currently <0.50%) but any hints about a December hike will strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing PMI came close to the expected number, so the impact was mild. The pair had another dull session yesterday, without major developments.

Technical Outlook

Price is still confined by the channel created by 1.2090 support and 1.2325 resistance but it has moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average for the first time in a long while. This may suggest that the buyers are trying to make a run for the top of the channel but a clear bias cannot be seen. The Stochastic is overbought and this may call for limited bearish movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index comes out at 9:30 am GMT and is expected to show a value of 51.9. Higher numbers for this indicator usually suggest optimism regarding economic conditions in the Construction sector, strengthening the Pound, but the impact is often mild.

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FOREX NEWS: FED KEEPS RATE UNCHANGED, BOE EXPECTED TO DO THE SAME

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair had a bullish trading session ahead of the Fed rate announcement and the Dollar was little changed after the release. The FOMC kept rates at the current <0.50% but a December hike is not off the table.

Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are both deep in overbought territory and this calls for a bearish retracement; adding to this view is the fact that the resistance at 1.1100 is not yet broken decisively. However, if the pair moves clearly above 1.1100, it will probably touch 1.1150 during today’s session and once that happens, the chances of a move lower will increase. As long as price is trading above the 50 EMA our bias is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI is today’s only notable release that can affect the pair. This survey is derived from the opinions of purchasing managers from outside the manufacturing industry and acts as a leading indicator of economic health. The announcement is scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and the expected number is 56.2.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and had a bullish bias for almost the entire session. An optimistic Construction PMI added Pound strength.

Technical Outlook

Price remained above the 50 period EMA but the bulls didn’t manage to break 1.2325 resistance and that leaves us with a bounce-or-break scenario. If the horizontal channel will be broken, we expect more buyers to join and to take price closer to 1.2480; otherwise, we expect an encounter with the moving average and possibly with the bottom of the channel during the days to come.

Fundamental Outlook

The first major release of the day is the Bank of England Inflation Report that will offer the bank’s projections regarding inflation and economic expectations for the next 2 years. The release is scheduled at 12:00 pm GMT and at the same time the BOE will announce the interest rate (no change expected from the current 0.25%). The Monetary Policy Summary comes out at the same time, containing information about the reasons that determined the rate vote.

Half an hour later, at 12:30 pm GMT, BOE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference discussing the contents of the Inflation Report. All the events mentioned can have a very strong impact on the Pound, so caution is recommended.

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FOREX NEWS: ENDING THE WEEK ON A HIGH NOTE WITH NFP IN THE FOCUS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The euro-dollar pair retraced lower yesterday after hitting a high of 1.1125. The bulls remain in control of medium term movement and we expect further upside.

Technical Outlook

The retracement lower seen yesterday was signalled earlier by the deep overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic but as long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the bias is still bullish. For the moment it looks like 1.1060 offers good support and it will probably push the pair higher, through 1.1100. Yesterday’s high at 1.1125 will act as first resistance, followed by 1.1150.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s main event is without a doubt the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls report, scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. This is the most important jobs related data, which shows how many new jobs were created during the previous month. Usually the impact on the US Dollar is high, with bigger numbers strengthening it. The forecast for today’s release is 174K, while the previous was 156K.


GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s High Court ruled yesterday that the Government cannot bypass the Parliament in triggering the Brexit and this generated Pound strength, taking the pair into resistance.

Technical Outlook

The pair hit 1.2480 resistance yesterday and it may pause here for a while or even come down, depending on the NFP reading. The Relative Strength Index is well above its 70 level, showing an overbought condition and this may increase the chances of a bounce lower at resistance. If this happens, the first support may be offered by 1.2325.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major releases today but the U.S. jobs data will have a direct and probably strong impact on the pair, so we recommend caution at the time of release.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR IN TURMOIL AHEAD OF U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

EUR/USD

Forex news: The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report released Friday showed a number of 161K new jobs, which was lower than the anticipated 174K. This triggered a move up after some mixed action at the time of release.

Technical Outlook

The bulls remain in control for now and we expect an encounter with 1.1150 resistance during today’s trading session. The Relative Strength Index is overbought and is showing bearish divergence: price made a higher high while the oscillator shows a lower high. This is a sign of reversal so we may see a bounce lower if 1.1150 holds. The first bearish target is 1.1100 but if this level is hit, the pair may resume bullish movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurogroup Meetings will be today’s only notable event. These are attended by European personalities from the political and financial fields but are closed to the press until they have concluded. A formal statement, containing details of the meetings is released at the end of the day but often participants talk to the press even before the end of the meetings. Volatility may be generated and caution is advised.


GBP/USD

The pair continued higher Friday, mostly due to a disappointing Non-Farm Employment report, which triggered Dollar weakness and allowed price to climb above resistance.

Technical Outlook

The move above 1.2480 brought the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic in deep overbought territory, making us anticipate a retracement back below this level. As long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bullish but this doesn’t exclude a pullback lower to clear the overbought condition. Once this retracement is complete, the bulls will probably move the pair higher if the Moving Average holds.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major releases for today, thus price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.

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FOREX NEWS: U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: VOLATILITY AND UNCERTAINTY

EUR/USD

Forex news: Yesterday the US Dollar erased some of the losses incurred during the previous days and the pair retraced closer to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The week opened with a gap that wasn’t yet filled completely

Technical Outlook

The next direction depends on the result of the U.S. Presidential Election but strictly from a technical point of view, we expect a bounce higher once the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is hit. Yesterday’s retracement was expected and signalled early by the overbought condition of the oscillators as well as the presence of bearish divergence but the medium term uptrend is still in place. The levels to watch are 1.1150 as resistance and the 50 EMA as support.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the United States will decide their next President and the US Dollar will be heavily influenced by the Election. Other than that, there are no other major economic indicators but we expect strong volatility and thus, we recommend caution.


GBP/USD

The pair had a bearish trading session yesterday as the greenback strengthened against the Pound. Price is now trading below the resistance at 1.2480, but still above the moving average.

Technical Outlook

We expect an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but once and if price gets there, the chances of another push higher will increase. The 50 EMA is very close to the horizontal support at 1.2325, creating a confluence zone that will be tough for the bears to break. The US Dollar and consequently the pair will be heavily influenced by the U.S. Presidential Election.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing Production is released, with a forecast change of 0.5% compared to the previous 0.2%. The indicator tracks changes in the total value of goods generated by the manufacturing sector and higher values suggest increased economic activity, thus a stronger Pound.

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FOREX NEWS: THE AFTERMATH. ELECTION RACE COMES TO AN END

EUR/USD

Forex news: The United States Electoral race still didn’t have a clear winner at the time of writing and the pair remained inside a tight range for most of the day. Volatility is still expected, as soon as we come nearer to a clear result.

Technical Outlook

The next direction still depends on the result of the U.S. Presidential Election so we cannot make an accurate prediction. For now the pair is having trouble moving away from the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and looks like both sides are reluctant to commit to a direction. The levels to watch are at the time of writing 1.1060 as immediate resistance and 1.1025 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

Today there are no major indicators on the economic calendar but surely the U.S. Dollar will continue to be influenced by the result of the Election and volatility will be high.


GBP/USD

Despite a better than expected value for the British Manufacturing Production, the Pound weakened slightly against the greenback yesterday and the pair touched the 50 EMA ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election conclusion.

Technical Outlook

The pair is struggling to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and probably the result of the U.S. Election will be the catalyst that will decide the next move. The current important levels are 1.2480 as resistance and 1.2325 as support, with the 50 EMA playing an important role as well. So far the picture remains blurry until a definitive election result is announced.

Fundamental Outlook

Today there are no major releases on the British economic calendar so we expect the pair’s direction to be decided by the U.S. Election results and the technical aspect.

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FOREX NEWS: THE US DOLLAR REACTS POSITIVELY TO THE NEW U.S. PRESIDENT

EUR/USD

Forex News: The United States has a new president and the result created a strong reaction, as expected. After a spike, the US Dollar recovered and erased all losses, even advancing against its counterpart.

Technical Outlook

It seems like the Trump win was well received by the markets and now the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, with strong US Dollar momentum. We will probably see increased volatility during the days to come, but the overall bias for the time being is bearish, so we anticipate a move closer to 1.0900 and possibly 1.0860. To the upside the first barrier is represented by the level at 1.0995.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks major economic releases but the US Dollar will still remain under the influence of the recent events. The irregular movement may continue, thus caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The impact of the U.S. Election was lower on this pair than on EUR/USD and overall we had a mixed session yesterday, without a clear winner.

Technical Outlook

The pair failed to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and is still trading between 1.2480 resistance and 1.2325 support. The picture remains blurry as the pair is still in a range until one of the mentioned levels is broken decisively. We may see US Dollar strength but as long as price is above the 50 EMA, our bias is slightly bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today but we may see a stronger response to the U.S. Presidential Election so the risk remains high.