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FOREX NEWS: U.S. INFLATION DATA AND RETAIL SALES – TWO POTENTIAL MARKET MOVERS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The testimony of Fed Chair Yellen was shifter 30 minutes earlier yesterday but overall the event did not have a huge impact on the US Dollar. The pair dropped through the 50 period EMA but recovered soon after.

Technical Outlook

After the first drop into 1.1400, price climbed into 1.1450 and then bounced lower from there, threatening support again. This “yo-yo” behaviour is likely to end today and we will probably see a break outside the range seen over the last few days. It seems like bearish pressure is increasing but there’s a huge wick in the lower side of the last closed candle and this suggests strong rejection, so probably the day’s direction will be decided by the fundamental side.

Fundamental Outlook

The focus will remain today on the US Dollar for the release of two key indicators: the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is a main gauge of inflation and the Retail Sales, which represent the major part of overall consumer spending.

The CPI is expected to show a change of 0.1% (previous -0.1%) and the Retail Sales a change of 0.1% compared to the previous -0.3%. Both indicators come out at 12:30 pm GMT and higher than anticipated numbers for either of them are usually beneficial for the US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Yesterday belonged mostly to the bulls and price remained above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Janet Yellen’s testimony brought the pair slightly lower but nothing substantial.

Technical Outlook

As long as the pair is trading above the 50 EMA and the Relative Strength Index is not overbought, we expect the current move to extend into 1.2975 – 1.3000 area. If price gets there, by that time the RSI will probably become overbought and this will likely generate a bounce lower because price is not in a strong trend. If 1.2900 is broken to the downside, we will probably see a move closer to 1.2850.

Fundamental Outlook

Today direction will be mainly influenced by the United States economic indicators as the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important releases for the last day of the week.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR ON THE ROPES AGAIN, WEAK ACROSS THE BOARD. WHAT’S NEXT?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Dollar took a blow Friday from a weaker than expected Consumer Price Index (actual 0.0%, forecast 0.1%) and disappointing numbers for the Retail Sales (actual -0.2%, forecast 0.1%). These numbers were the main reason behind Friday’s climb and break of resistance.

Technical Outlook

After the failed break of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair headed straight for the resistance at 1.1450 and surpassed it, on the back of weak U.S. economic data. For today we expect an encounter with last week’s high located at 1.1490, but a strong move above 1.1500 is less likely, mostly because the Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought and usually Mondays are slow days. As long as 1.1490 – 1.1500 remains resistance, we expect ranging movement.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a slow day for both currencies from a fundamental standpoint, with the only notable release being the Eurozone Final CPI, scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and expected to show a value of 1.3%, same as previous. The Final version is the least important, but higher numbers can bring Euro strength, taking the pair higher.


GBP/USD

The Pound bulls capitalized on the US Dollar weakness Friday and the pair climbed more than 150 pips, breaking several resistance levels. The outlook is now bullish but the pair has become overbought.

Technical Outlook

Price stopped at 1.3100 resistance but it’s not clear whether this happened because the markets closed for the weekend or because the move is exhausted. Either way, the Relative Strength Index has moved well past the overbought mark and although the bias is bullish, we expect to see some sort of bounce lower from the current resistance. The extent of the movement should be limited because strong moves are usually followed by a short period of ranging price action.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the United States, the United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today so the technical side will prevail.

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FOREX NEWS: PULLBACKS EXPECTED, AHEAD OF BRITISH CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

EUR/USD

Forex News: Eurozone’s Final CPI that came out yesterday, matched the market consensus and the pair remained mostly unfazed by the release. Overall the session was mixed and the pair remained in a tight range.

Technical Outlook

After a brief dip below 1.1450, the Euro rallied and nullified the early losses. Now the pair seems headed towards the resistance at 1.1490 – 1.1500 but once that zone is reached, we expect to see a bounce lower. If the zone is broken, the extent of the move above it should be limited, mostly because price is overextended and the bearish pressure has increased. To the downside, if 1.1450 is broken, we expect a touch of the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey comes out, showing the opinions of about 275 German professional analysts and investors regarding the health of the German economy, as well as a 6-month outlook. The anticipated number is 17.6 and higher values usually strengthen the Euro but the impact of this survey has started to decrease.


GBP/USD

The Pound wasn’t affected by important economic data yesterday and the pair retraced lower, mostly due to technical reasons that we mentioned in yesterday’s briefing.

Technical Outlook

Bearish pressure has increased and we expect to see a move lower, possibly into the zone around 1.3030. Both the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are turning down, coming out of overbought territory, which is a fact that supports a move lower. However, the pair still has strong upside momentum so after this potential pullback, the chances of a break of 1.3100 resistance will increase.

Fundamental Outlook

A high-impact indicator will affect the Pound today: the British Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation and is closely watched by the Bank of England when they decide on where to set the interest rate. Higher inflation eventually triggers a rate hike and this strengthens the Pound. The time of the release is 8:30 am GMT and the expected value is 2.9%.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STILL THE WEAKEST IN THE BUNCH, POUND TUMBLES AFTER DISAPPOINTING CPI

EUR/USD

Forex News: Despite the overextended condition of price, the pair made another strong push yesterday, approaching 2016’s high at 1.1616. The German ZEW data came very close to forecast and the market remained mostly unaffected.

Technical Outlook

Most of yesterday’s climb was triggered by US Dollar weakness and the pair now seems headed for last year’s high at 1.1616. The Relative Strength Index has entered overbought territory on a four hour chart, so we expect to see retracements lower once the mentioned resistance is reached, or even before. To the downside the first potential support is located at 1.1490 – 1.1500 but if price climbs to 1.1616 it will not retrace so low probably.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Building Permits will be released at 12:30 pm GMT and will be today’s only notable data. The indicator shows how many permits were issued for the construction of new residential buildings during the previous month and usually strengthens the US Dollar if it posts a higher than expected value, which for today is 1.20 Million.


GBP/USD

The Pound took a big blow from a weaker than expected Consumer Price Index, so the pair posted a huge drop after initially breaking 1.3100 resistance.

Technical Outlook

The pair was overextended even before the British CPI came out, so this is a classic case of fundamentals in agreement with the technical side, hence the strong drop. We expect the current move to reach the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but keep in mind that the US Dollar is still weak and is taking a beating from most of its counterparts so we cannot rule out a climb above 1.3030 and closer to 1.3100. First important level south is 1.3000 and the way price behaves here will reveal more about the future direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar for the Pound lacks any important releases, so the technical aspect will be the deciding factor for price direction.

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FOREX NEWS: PREPARE FOR INCREASED VOLATILITY: ECB INTEREST RATE, BRITISH RETAIL SALES IN THE SPOTLIGHT

EUR/USD

Forex News: After reaching a top at 1.1583, the pair started to retrace lower and most of yesterday’s trading session belonged to the bears. The U.S. Building Permits posted a better than anticipated number and this helped the US Dollar to some extent.

Technical Outlook

The current move down is considered a normal and much needed retracement in an uptrend and once it finds support, we expect to see a bounce higher and a possible trend continuation into last year’s high at 1.1616. Potential support is located around 1.1490 – 1.1500, while the first resistance sits at 1.1580, followed by 1.1616, but keep in mind that today the technical side will be overshadowed by the ECB press conference.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s central focus will be the ECB rate decision, scheduled at 11:45 am GMT and followed by Mario Draghi’s press conference at 12:30 pm GMT. The rate is not expected to change from the current 0.00% but the press conference is usually the time when the Euro starts to behave erratically, depending on Draghi’s attitude and answers to journalists’ questions. If he will hint towards some form of QE tapering, we expect to see increased Euro volatility.


GBP/USD

Price action was choppy yesterday and the bears couldn’t continue the momentum started a day before by the weak British CPI. The pair is now trading above and below 1.3030, without clear direction.

Technical Outlook

The pair is likely to range between 1.3030 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average until the release of the British Retail Sales. The reading for this indicator will probably decide today’s direction and the technical aspect will be secondary. A bullish breakout will make 1.3100 the first target, and a move south will have the 50 EMA as first target, followed by the support at 1.2975.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales come out at 8:30 am GMT and are expected to show a change of 0.4% compared to the previous -1.2%. This is a very important indicator because sales made at retail levels account for the majority of consumer spending, so we expect to see Pound strength if the actual number surpasses analysts’ expectations and Pound weakness if it comes out below forecast.

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FOREX NEWS: EURO POSTS MASSIVE GAINS, MOVES PAST 2016 HIGH, BACKED BY DRAGHI’S COMMENTS

EUR/USD

Forex News: As the market expected, the ECB maintained its interest rate unchanged but during the press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi mentioned that a hike in autumn is possible. The Euro responded positively to the comments and the pair rebounded from session lows, breaking resistance.

Technical Outlook

After completing a retracement that almost touched the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair pushed higher, breaking last year’s high at 1.1616 fuelled by Draghi’s comments. The uptrend is now resumed and the pair is headed for the next resistance located around 1.1700 but it won’t move there in a straight line and pullbacks will most likely occur. For today we expect small bounces to the downside or a ranging session with a bullish bias.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the Euro and the US Dollar have a light economic calendar, without any major news releases, so the deciding factor will be the technical aspect.


GBP/USD

The pair had a mixed trading session yesterday, first breaking below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and then returning to the line. The British Retail Sales came out slightly above expectations but this only created a brief period of volatility.

Technical Outlook

If the pair will break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the upside, the outlook will become bullish once again and we will probably see a break of 1.3030, followed by a move into 1.3100 next week. On the other hand, a bounce lower from the 50 EMA will confirm the initial break and will make 1.2900 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any major economic releases for the final trading day of the week, so the technical side will prevail.

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FOREX NEWS: EURO HOLDS ABOVE 2016 HIGHS AHEAD OF MANUFACTURING AND SERVICES DATA

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the fundamental scene was calm, without any important economic releases and this translated into a choppy session, mostly controlled by the bulls.

Technical Outlook

Friday’s price action shows that the pair is running out of steam and that it’s preparing for a retracement but we don’t expect to see very strong movement today. It is highly likely for the pair to re-test the recently broken resistance at 1.1616 but it will probably remain in a relatively tight range unless the fundamental side offers some surprises. To the upside, resistance sits at 1.1713, which is a level last reached in August 2015 but we don’t expect a break today.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurozone Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes will be released today at 8:00 am GMT. These are surveys that act as leading indicators of economic health, focused on their respective sectors, so higher than anticipated numbers suggest optimism and usually strengthen the Euro. The forecast is 57.3 for the Manufacturing PMI and 55.5 for the Services PMI.

The US Dollar will be affected today by the Existing Home Sales, scheduled for release at 2:00 pm GMT. The indicator shows the annualized number of houses sold, excluding new construction but the impact is usually low-to-medium; however, numbers above the forecast of 5.59 Million can strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

The Cable remained in a range Friday, moving above and below the 50 EMA for almost the entire session. All directional moves to one side were quickly reversed and the pair lacked determination.

Technical Outlook

Friday’s price action doesn’t offer a lot of hints for future direction. Currently the pair is in a consolidation phase below 1.3000 and we can see several candles that tried to close above this resistance but failed and resulted in long upper wicks. This is a sign of rejection, so we can expect to see downside movement if price doesn’t move away from the 50 EMA and above 1.3000 key level.

Fundamental Outlook

The British economic scene is calm today, without any notable releases. The technical aspect will be the main deciding factor for direction.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS TIMID SIGNS OF RECOVERY. U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE EYED FOR NEXT MOVE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was controlled by the bears for the most part and the pair retraced lower but without threatening the support at 1.1616. European data missed the market consensus and this contributed to the currency’s weakness.

Technical Outlook

The move down seen yesterday is very normal after a strong move up like the one seen last week and we expect current downside momentum to extend into 1.1616. That’s a place where bullish movement could resume and if this is the case, we expect to see a push into the recently formed resistance around 1.1680 – 1.1685. If this resistance is broken, we expect to see a stronger move down when the pair reaches 1.1713, which is a level last visited in August 2015.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s highlight is the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey, released at 2:00 pm GMT. The survey is derived from the opinions of about 5,000 households regarding business conditions, job availability and economic conditions overall, and acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending, thus higher numbers usually strengthen the US Dollar. Today’s forecast is a reading of 116.2, lower than the previous 118.9.


GBP/USD

The pair maintained a bullish bias throughout yesterday’s trading session and moved above the key psychological level at 1.3000 but was capped by 1.3030 resistance.

Technical Outlook

The pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above the important level at 1.3000, without being overbought. All clues point towards an extended move to the north but currently there are signs of rejection around the resistance at 1.3030, so we may see a revisit of 1.3000. Our bias is mostly bearish if resistance cannot be broken with determination.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we don’t have anything major in terms of British economic releases, so the pair’s direction will be decided by technical factors and by the U.S. survey mentioned earlier.

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FOREX NEWS: VOLATILITY WARNING: FED RATE STATEMENT, BRITISH PRELIMINARY GDP

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar failed to stage a comeback and yesterday’s trading session was controlled mostly by the Euro bulls. In the afternoon we saw rejection around 1.1713, partly due to better than expected numbers for the U.S. Consumer Confidence survey.

Technical Outlook

After coming within 1 pip of August 2015’s high at 1.1713, the pair started to show rejection and retraced close to the previous high at 1.1685. The Relative Strength Index is close to overbought and is showing bearish divergence (price is making higher highs and the oscillator is making lower highs); on top of that, the last candle shows a long wick, so all these signs point towards a move south. However, it must be noted that an uptrend is still in place and a break of 1.1713 cannot be overruled.

Fundamental Outlook

The FOMC will announce the interest rate (no change expected; currently <1.25%) today at 6:00 pm GMT and will release the Rate Statement, which contains the reasons that determined the rate decision. Usually the rate is priced into the market so it tends to have a muted impact, but the Statement can create strong movement if it contains any hints about future monetary policy.


GBP/USD

The Pound remained above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and pushed above resistance mostly due to US Dollar weakness early during yesterday. A small recovery was seen later in the afternoon, on the back of positive U.S. data.

Technical Outlook

The pair is trading above the 50 EMA and above 1.3030, which was previously resistance, so the outlook is bullish but as long as price stays between 1.3000 and 1.3100, it can be considered in a range and without clear movement. Today’s direction will be mostly influenced by the fundamental side, as both currencies in the pair will be affected by key releases.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT we have a very important UK indicator: the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product. This is the main gauge of overall economic performance and the Preliminary is the first in the series of three versions, thus it tends to be the most important. Today’s forecast is a change of 0.3%, while the previous was 0.2%; higher numbers usually strengthen the Pound.

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FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR TAKES ANOTHER BLOW FROM THE FOMC RATE STATEMENT

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Fed kept the rate unchanged at <1.25%, as expected but the Rate Statement was interpreted as dovish and the US Dollar weakened at the time of the release as a result.

Technical Outlook

The pair pushed above 1.1685 and approached 1.1713 resistance once again, on the back of a FOMC Rate Statement that was interpreted as dovish by the majority of market participants. However, the US Dollar sell-off is not entirely justified and we may very well see a quick bounce lower, into 1.1616 - 1.1600 area, especially if the pair moves quickly below 1.1685. If 1.1713 is broken to the upside, the pair is in “uncharted territory” because the next notable level is located somewhere around 1.2000 – 1.2050, which is a level last reached in 2012.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s only notable release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT in the form of the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, an indicator that tracks changes in the total value of orders placed for goods with a life expectancy of more than 3 years. A higher change than the forecast 3.5% shows increased economic activity and usually strengthens the US Dollar but if the number comes close to market consensus, the impact is lower.


GBP/USD

The British Gross Domestic Product matched the forecast and the Pound didn’t have a strong reaction to the news but US Dollar weakness took the pair closer to the 1.3100 mark later in the afternoon.

Technical Outlook

The pair is clearly headed towards 1.3100 - 1.3125 resistance and once it gets there, we expect to see some sort of rejection or at least a re-test of the zone from above. As we mentioned a day before, until the resistance at 1.3100 or the support at 1.3000 is broken decisively, we consider the pair in a range, without clear direction.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major indicators scheduled on the Pound’s economic calendar, so the technical aspect and the U.S. Durable Goods Orders will decide the pair’s direction.