外汇分析 | Gdmfx Brokerage | 每日报告

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: DEEP OVERBOUGHT LEVELS CALL FOR PULLBACKS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro and the US Dollar both benefited from better than expected data yesterday and this created a slower session, with price oscillating in a 50 pip range.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action created a minor resistance at 1.1435 but also established 1.1400 as support. A break of either one of these levels will probably trigger additional movement in that direction but the pair is in a strong uptrend, so a break of support will not extend very low. To the upside the next resistance and target is located around 1.1450. Our overall bias remains bullish but the RSI is extremely overbought and this calls for a retracement.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 9:00 am GMT we take a look at Eurozone inflation with the release of the European CPI Flash Estimate. The report uses data from 13 member states that report CPIs earlier and tends to have a significant impact on the Euro. The forecast is a change of 1.2% (previous 1.4%) and under normal circumstances, higher numbers strengthen the currency.

At 1:45 pm GMT the Chicago PMI comes out, showing the opinions of about 200 purchasing managers from the Chicago area regarding overall business conditions. The impact is medium but numbers above the forecast 58.1 show optimism and usually strengthen the greenback.


GBP/USD

The Pound continued to strengthen and the US Dollar to weaken so yesterday the pair continued on an upwards path, reaching the key resistance at 1.3000.

Technical Outlook

The current level is very important from a technical perspective (previous resistance) as well as psychological perspective (big, round number) and the Relative Strength Index is deep in overbought territory. All these factors make us anticipate a retracement lower during today’s session but keep in mind that the pair still has bullish momentum so a break of resistance is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Current Account is today’s main highlight for the Pound. The indicator shows the difference in value between imports and exports and strengthens the currency if it posts a higher than expected reading. The time of release is 8:30 am GMT and today’s forecast is -17.2 Billion, while the previous was -12.1 Billion.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: POUND GETS READY FOR ANOTHER VOLATILITY WAVE: BOE’S CARNEY TO SPEAK IN FRANKFURT

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday price action slowed down and the pair retraced to test 1.1400, turning it into support. Overall the fundamental scene was calm, with positive data for both currencies but nothing to really shake the market.

Technical Outlook

After coming very close to the key resistance at 1.1450, the pair moved lower and found support at 1.1400. Price is likely to continue higher after the bounce at support but if the minor resistance around 1.1435 cannot be easily broken, we may experience a drop below 1.1400. Today we expect to see either a slow, ranging session or a bearish bias but overall the pair is clearly bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Manufacturing PMI will be released at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a value of 55.0. The survey acts as an indicator of optimism and usually a higher number is beneficial to the US Dollar but the impact is not always notable.


GBP/USD

After a dip below support, the Pound rallied again and closed last week above the key psychological resistance at 1.3000, helped by US Dollar weakness seen across the board.

Technical Outlook

Friday the pair reversed an earlier drop and is now trading above the important level at 1.3000, a fact that opens the door for a move into the long term resistance at 1.3050. The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are still overbought and this means that upside movement should be limited and possibly followed by a drop. It is very likely to see a ranging session because Mondays are often slow days but if BOE Governor Carney shows a hawkish stance, we may get another push higher.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound’s movement will be influenced by the British Manufacturing PMI, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. Similar to the U.S. indicator with the same name, this survey can strengthen the currency if it posts a higher reading than today’s forecast of 56.4.

At 12:00 pm GMT, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will speak in Frankfurt at the Financial Stability Board. The impact of this speech depends on the matters discussed and Carney’s attitude but as always when heads of central banks speak, caution is recommended.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: RETRACEMENTS UNDERWAY, US DOLLAR AFFECTED BY INDEPENDENCE DAY

EUR/USD

Forex News: The bulls couldn’t push price higher and instead the pair dropped through 1.1400, starting a much needed retracement. U.S. Manufacturing data was better than expected and strengthened the US Dollar, helping the drop.

Technical Outlook

The pair had reached deep overbought levels and traded there for quite a while so the current move down can be considered a necessary retracement. It is very likely to see an encounter with 1.1340 – 1.1350 or even with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the overall picture remains bullish. Price action will be most likely affected by Independence Day, so we recommend caution.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the United States celebrates Independence Day, so banks will be closed and volatility will be affected most likely, especially during the NY session. On the Euro side, things are calm as well, without any major indicator releases.


GBP/USD

The Pound took a blow from weaker than expected numbers for the Manufacturing sector (forecast 56.4, actual 54.3) and this allowed the pair to dip back below the key psychological level at 1.3000.

Technical Outlook

The pair returned below 1.3000 after trading in overbought territory and is now headed towards 1.2900, with both oscillators showing good downwards momentum. The short term bias is bearish but overall the strength belongs to the bulls so we don’t expect to see a move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Keep in mind that price can shoot up even before reaching 1.2900 or the 50 EMA and that today’s bias will be affected by Independence Day.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the British Construction PMI comes out, showing the opinions of purchasing managers regarding business conditions in this sector. A higher number usually strengthens the Pound but the impact is higher if the actual reading is further away from analysts’ forecast, which for today is 55.2.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: BOUNCE OR BREAK SCENARIOS IN PLAY, FOMC MINUTES EYED FOR NEXT MOVE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was very slow, partly because the United States celebrated Independence Day and this generated thin liquidity.

Technical Outlook

Although it was a slow session, the pair reached the support at 1.1340 and came very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This means that today we are faced with a “bounce-or-break” scenario and its outcome will determine the next short term direction: a bounce will suggest a resumption of the bullish trend, while a break of this support zone will open the door for a move into 1.1280.

Fundamental Outlook

The FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released today at 6:00 pm GMT and will be the main event for the US Dollar. The document shows the details of the latest rate meeting and the reasons that generated the rate vote; usually the impact is very high if the Minutes contain hints about future monetary policy direction.


GBP/USD

Similar to the other pair, the Cable showed slow and choppy movement yesterday. The British Construction PMI came very close to analysts’ forecast, so the release didn’t create a lot of volatility.

Technical Outlook

The short term bias remains bearish for the time being and we expect to see an encounter with 1.2900 support. By the time price gets there, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will probably climb and will form a confluence zone together with 1.2900. Confluence zones are tough to break but if price does move past them, this shows good momentum in the direction of the break, so maybe we will see an extended move into 1.2850. The overall bias is still bullish so we cannot rule out a quick move into 1.3000 area.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Services PMI is the last in this week’s series and will be released at 8:30 am GMT, with an expected value of 53.6, similar to the previous 53.8. This is a survey of purchasing managers from the Services sector that acts as a leading indicator of economic health and optimism. Usually a higher number is beneficial for the Pound but if the actual reading matches the forecast, the impact is limited.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR REACTS POSITIVELY TO THE FOMC MINUTES. MORE DOWNSIDE TO FOLLOW?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar strengthened ahead of the FOMC Minutes release and the pair broke through support. The Minutes added greenback strength and the pair returned below 1.1340 after a brief climb.

Technical Outlook

At the time of writing the pair is showing signs of indecision (candles with long wicks) and is trading very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, so a clear bias is not in place. However, it seems the US Dollar is reacting positively to the FOMC Minutes and the pair is coming down after an extended period of being overbought, so we can expect a touch of 1.1280 as long as the bears can keep price below the 50 EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:15 pm GMT we take a first look at the American jobs situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, a report that shows changes in the number of employed people, excluding the farming sector and Government. The forecast is 184K, lower than the previous 253K and usually, numbers above expectations strengthen the US Dollar but the impact is lower than the Non-Farm Payrolls released Friday.


GBP/USD

The British Services PMI released yesterday came very close to analysts’ forecast, so the impact was low and the pair had a slow trading session until the release of the FOMC Minutes. Some US Dollar strength was seen but the pair is still above support.

Technical Outlook

Several four hour candles have touched the support at 1.2900 and were rejected there, creating long wicks in their lower side. This is a sign of bullish pressure, so if we don’t see a break of support soon, we expect the pair to climb towards 1.2975 – 1.3000. If the level at 1.2900 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average are broken soon, we will probably see a touch of 1.2850. Our bias is mostly neutral until this bounce-or-break scenario unfolds.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major releases for today so the pair’s direction will be mostly decided by the technical aspect and the U.S. jobs data.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR A WILD DAY: U.S. NFP RELEASE AND TRUMP – PUTIN FIRST MEETING

EUR/USD

Forex News: The bears ran out of steam before breaking the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the pair made a run for 1.1400 resistance, generating a session controlled by the buyers. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change showed lower numbers than analysts had anticipated and this weakened the US Dollar, contributing to the pair’s climb.

Technical Outlook

After showing long candle wicks (sign of rejection) at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair climbed into the first resistance located at 1.1400. A big part in the climb was played by the lower than expected reading showed by the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change but technical reasons contributed as well. Today’s direction will be mainly decided by the Non-Farm Payrolls report and until its release, we expect to see choppy price action, near 1.1400.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 12:30 pm GMT the most important U.S. report of the week will be released: the Non-Farm Payrolls. The indicator is released monthly and shows changes in the total number of employed people, excluding the farming sector. This is widely considered the most important data for the U.S. jobs market, with a strong impact on the US Dollar; usually a higher than anticipated reading strengthens the currency. The forecast for today is 175K, higher than the previous 138K.

Today Presidents Trump and Putin will have their first official meeting at the G20 Summit and this definitely calls for caution because we don’t know how the market will react.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the US Dollar weakened when the U.S. employment numbers were released but the Pound’s gains were quickly erased and the pair dropped back to the levels where the climb originated, generating a choppy session overall.

Technical Outlook

The pair is bouncing between the resistance at 1.2975 – 1.3000 and the support at 1.2900 but a break of either one will be decided by the fundamental side. The U.S. jobs data will have a direct and probably high impact on the pair’s movement and also the Trump – Putin meeting may be a reason for strong movement. Until these events occur, movement will likely be choppy and unclear.

Fundamental Outlook

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will speak at the G20 Meetings today but the exact time is not known so we recommend caution throughout the day.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: SOLID U.S. EMPLOYMENT READINGS BOOST THE US DOLLAR. SUPPORT THREATENED

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Non-Farm Payrolls showed a better than expected value Friday but the Average Hourly Earnings decreased, so the US Dollar had a mixed reaction, first weakening and then erasing all the losses. The pair finished last week close to support but without a clear bias.

Technical Outlook

After a spike that took price close to 1.1450, the pair moved below 1.1400 and then reversed again, finishing last week very close to this support/resistance level. This type of movement shows that the pair is in an indecision phase and that control doesn’t clearly belong to either side. For today we favour a move below 1.1400, but not a break of the 50 period Exponential Moving Average; we may also get a slow, ranging session sue to the lack of major releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable release of the day is the Sentix Investor Confidence, scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. This is a survey of about 2,800 analysts and investors that tries to rate their opinions regarding a 6-month outlook for the Eurozone. The forecast is 28.1 and a higher number shows optimism, strengthening the Euro but the impact is often low.


GBP/USD

Friday a weak Pound couldn’t do much against the US Dollar that was boosted by the solid NFP reading, so the pair bounced at 1.2975 and broke below horizontal support and below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Technical Outlook

Friday’s price action shows that the Pound is weak against the US Dollar and makes us anticipate a move into 1.2850. When or if the oscillators become oversold, we expect to see a climb that will find resistance around 1.2900 but overall we consider that today will be a slow and ranging session, mostly because no major indicators will be released.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar for the Pound is blank today, so the pair’s direction will be decided by the technical aspect.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR GAINS MOMENTUM, AMID A LACKLUSTRE FUNDAMENTAL SCENE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the bears took control of the pair and managed to take price below the support at 1.1400. However, price didn’t travel a long distance and the picture is still mixed.

Technical Outlook

The pair is under bearish pressure and we consider the short term bias bearish, anticipating a move at least into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. If this barrier is broken, then the next target will become 1.1340 but given the slow fundamental environment, it’s likely that this horizontal support will not be reached today. To the upside, resistance sits at 1.1450 but a move into this area is less likely for today.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable event of the day is the release of the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a reading of 5.89 million. The report shows how many new jobs are available during the reported month, excluding the farming sector; a higher number is beneficial for the US Dollar but the impact is usually low.


GBP/USD

The US Dollar won the fight against the Pound yesterday and the pair dropped after a timid climb. The fundamental scene was lacklustre but Friday’s better than expected NFP probably extended its effects to yesterday’s trading session.

Technical Outlook

After the dip below 1.2900 support, the pair climbed to re-test this level and bounced lower, thus confirming it as resistance. Price is also trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, so the short term bias is bearish, anticipating a touch of 1.2850 in the very near future. The Relative Strength Index is approaching oversold and the Pound still has underlying strength, so we may very well see a bounce higher once the mentioned target is reached.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a light economic calendar today, without any notable releases, so the deciding factor for direction will probably be the technical aspect.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: HEADS UP: FED CHAIR YELLEN TESTIFIES, US DOLLAR SET FOR STRONG MOVES

EUR/USD

Forex News: Price action remained slow during yesterday’s trading session, with just a small move above 1.1400. The lacklustre economic calendar contributed to the low volatility.

Technical Outlook

Even if volatility remained low for most of yesterday’s trading session, it is now becoming clearer that the US Dollar lacks the strength to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average or even 1.1400 decisively, at least for the time being. If the pair remains above 1.1400, we may see a touch of 1.1450 but the direction of the US Dollar may be heavily influenced by Janet Yellen’s testimony.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s highlight is Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT. The topic is the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report and the text of the testimony will be released 90 minutes prior but during the session, she will answer questions asked by the Committee members, and this is when volatility on US Dollar pairs will increase, so caution is recommended.


GBP/USD

The pair dipped lower after an initial climb above resistance, and headed into the support at 1.2850. Volatility was high yesterday and we are now seeing increased momentum to the downside.

Technical Outlook

What looked like a clear break of the 50 period EMA and the resistance at 1.2900 turned to be a fake move, followed by a fast drop into the key support at 1.2850. If this level will be broken today, we will probably see a move into 1.2800 and possibly 1.2770 but a lot will depend on the British wages data and Yellen’s testimony. To the upside, the first barrier is represented by the confluence zone created by the 50 EMA and 1.2900 resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Average Earnings Index comes out, showing changes in the price paid for labor by the Government and businesses. A higher hourly wage indicates that people may start to spend more in the near future, and this usually strengthens the Pound. Today’s forecast is a change of 1.8%, lower than the previous 2.1%.

tradefx9

FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR BOOSTED BY HAWKISH YELLEN TESTIMONY. SUPPORT THREATENED

EUR/USD

Forex News: Most of yesterday’s trading session was bearish but the Dollar really took off during Fed Chair Yellen’s hawkish speech. The pair reached horizontal support and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average.

Technical Outlook

The sellers are facing an important barrier at 1.1400 and the 50 period EMA. As long as this zone is not clearly broken, we can still consider the current move a retracement in an uptrend but if the barrier will be broken, we expect to see a drop into 1.1340. Given the US Dollar strength seen yesterday and the overextended condition of price on a Daily chart, we favour a drop through the current support.

Fundamental Outlook

First release of the day is the U.S. Producer Price Index, an indicator that shows changes in the price charged by producers for the goods they sell. A higher producer price leads to a higher consumer price, thus a higher inflation and this usually strengthens the US Dollar. Today’s forecast is a change of 0.0%, same as previous and the time of release is 12:30 pm GMT.

At 2:00 pm GMT, Fed Chair Yellen will testify again on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report, this time before the Senate Banking Committee. This testimony should be treated with caution because it can spark strong movement on USD pairs.


GBP/USD

Yesterday the Pound was strengthened by better than expected employment data and the pair climbed above resistance, breaching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Janet Yellen’s testimony erased some of the US Dollar losses but the effect wasn’t substantial.

Technical Outlook

The level at 1.2815 has become support as seen from yesterday’s price action, but the buyers couldn’t break the confluence zone created by 1.2900 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The last 4 hour candle is showing a long wick in its upper part, suggesting rejection, and this increases the chances of a bounce lower, into 1.2850. On the other hand, the RSI is bouncing from its oversold level and this increases the chance of a continued move higher. Overall the picture is mixed and the way price behaves around the current resistance will decide the next move.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar is light for the Pound, so the pair’s direction will be decided by the technical aspect and by the U.S. events mentioned above.